ISIS Poised for a Ramadan Surge in Syria

Mar 9, 2021 - Eva Kahan

By Eva Kahan

Key Takeaway: ISIS has established a stable territorial base in the mountainous regions of the Central Syrian Desert and has begun to overtake pro-Assad regime forces in the area. ISIS is waging a coordinated campaign to draw pro-regime forces into an untenable security posture in defense of energy and oil assets threatened by ISIS. Assad’s Russian and Iranian backers have attempted to contain ISIS’s insurgency but are unwilling to commit force at the scale necessary to succeed. ISIS is already using its territorial base to destabilize other parts of Syria. ISIS could attempt to seize new territory or financial assets in central Syria during its Ramadan campaign beginning in April 2021.

ISIS has begun to overtake pro-regime forces in the Central Syrian Desert. ISIS controls several small swaths of territory from which it is conducting a coordinated campaign across multiple zones of the Central Syrian Desert (CSD). The Central Syrian Desert encompasses rough terrain studded with oil and gas assets and crisscrossed by ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that connect regime-held population centers. ISIS’s strongholds are located in mountainous terrain overlooking those GLOCs and the desert’s few population centers, indicated in figure 1.[1] ISIS has successfully defended these strongholds when pressured, demonstrating sustainable control of rural terrain. In one instance, Russian-backed Syrian Arab Army 5^th Corps units, likely with elite Tiger Forces support, attempted to clear an ISIS control zone northeast of Rahjan, Hama Province, on December 13, 2020.[2] ISIS ambushed the clearing unit and forced it to retreat, preventing the unit from recovering its wounded until the arrival of air support hours later.[3]

Figure 1, click here to expand the image:

From its strongholds, ISIS has applied consistent military pressure against pro-regime forces’ internal supply lines within the Central Syrian Desert, jeopardizing their operations across most of Syria. ISIS regularly conducts complex ambushes on regime convoys at five key chokepoints along GLOCs that connect pro-regime bases and oil/gas infrastructure in Deir ez-Zour, Raqqa, Hama, and Homs provinces.[4] These attacks cause tens to low-hundreds of regime casualties monthly according to available reporting and analysis from open-source researchers.[5] In order to supply bases around the desert and in Palmyra, pro-regime forces will have to continue to suffer these manpower losses or dedicate scarce air units to transport and supply their forces, as Russian units are already doing for themselves.[6] ISIS likely also extorts and disrupts commercial traffic along these routes, depriving the regime of revenue. The US-led coalition conducted at least one airstrike against an ISIS training camp in the CSD in October 2020, demonstrating growing coalition recognition that pro-regime forces are failing to contain ISIS’s resurgence.

ISIS’s campaign threatens key Syrian oil and natural gas infrastructure and is forcing the pro-regime coalition to overextend its manpower to secure these facilities. ISIS has repeatedly attempted to take key oil and gas infrastructure in the CSD. ISIS successfully seized the Doubayat gas field three times in September and October 2020.[7] The field is 12 miles south of al Sukhnah, one of the two major population centers in the eastern Homs Desert. The regime recaptured the field each time and now holds it.[8] However, two of those recapture operations required Russian air support, indicating that Syrian units may not be able to retake the field independently in the future.[9] ISIS has also laid improvised explosive devices (IEDs) around energy infrastructure, including the al Taym and al Tayba oil fields, to limit the mobility of pro-regime forces securing the area.[10] Al Taym oil field is 10 miles south of Deir ez-Zour City and hosts a base for Russian-backed forces; Tayba oil field is 15 miles north of Sukhna. ISIS’s pressure is forcing pro-regime forces to regularly redeploy high-end assets to recapture seized fields.

Pro-regime counter-ISIS operations are plagued by the same constraints that limit other pro-regime campaigns across Syria:

Limited operational capacity. Pro-regime forces can only mass capable forces in one area of responsibility at a time, leaving security gaps for ISIS to exploit.[11] ISW has reported on the consistent inability of pro-regime forces to operate simultaneously across multiple fronts.[12]
Manpower deficits and incompetent conscripts. The Assad regime does not have the manpower to perform capable area security. Neither Russia nor Iran is likely to invest the manpower necessary to secure the CSD.[13] Russian units, including Wagner Private Military Forces deputized by the Russian government, are formally responsible for securing multiple oil fields in the area but do not perform wider area security.[14] The Syrian regime often tries to fill this gap by sending ill-trained hired or conscripted troops to hold untenable positions deep in the desert, further weakening the regime’s footing and making the Central Syrian Desert deployment infamously undesirable.[15]
Russo-Iranian friction. ISIS has exploited and fueled tensions between Russian and Iranian-backed units. ISIS assassinations of members of rival factions have led those factions to accuse one another of providing information to ISIS. These assassinations exacerbate preexisting squabbles over control of the CSD’s valuable resources.[16] Russian forces agreed to transfer security positions near valuable phosphate fields and along high-volume GLOCs between Sukhna and Palmyra to Iranian proxies to appease Iranian demands on January 26.[17] Poorly equipped Iranian-backed proxies replaced Russian-backed units around Palmyra after the agreement, creating vulnerabilities that ISIS has exploited.[18]

ISIS’s pressure is preventing elite and mobile pro-regime units from taking the initiative in the counter-ISIS fight. ISIS is exploiting the regime’s vulnerabilities to attack key Russian and Iranian bases across multiple zones to force the limited capable and rapidly deployable pro-regime units, including the Tiger Forces, to respond defensively across multiple zones in succession, as seen in figure 2.[19] For example, ISIS carried out a large explosive attack–possibly using a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED)–on al Taym oil field, 10 miles south of Deir ez-Zour City, on February 3 to compel Russian-backed forces to abandon an operation against the ISIS stronghold in Jabal Bishri and redeploy to secure the field.[20] Then, as those units became fixed at al Taym oil field, ISIS attacked oil facilities in Fasida, 20 miles southeast of Ithriya, on the same day.[21] ISIS’s successive, geographically disparate attacks deny the regime opportunity to counter ISIS pro-actively.

Figure 2, click here to expand the image:

New Russian-led efforts to contain ISIS have not meaningfully restricted the militants’ territorial grasp in Central Syria. Russia began a new effort to contain ISIS in the CSD in August 2020.[22] Russian-led operations with elite Syrian proxies have focused on securing a few key oil assets including al Doubayat, al Shoula, and al Taym Oil Fields.[23] Attempts by Russian-backed units to re-establish secure GLOCs to those fields have been unsuccessful. For example, ISIS resumed ambushes along the “secured” Khanasir-Ithriya highway just weeks after Russian-sponsored clearing operations ended in September 2020.[24] Similarly, ISIS attacked a Russian-backed unit along the Deir ez-Zour-Palmyra highway near Kabbajab on February 18, 2021, three weeks after Deir ez-Zour National Defense Forces leader Nizar al Khidr declared the highway “secure.”[25] Russia’s Ministry of Defense has asserted that it is achieving success against ISIS, claiming to have killed 327 ISIS militants in a several-day air campaign in August 2020.[26] ISIS deaths in Russian air campaigns cannot be substantiated and, given the minimal impact of those campaigns on the security situation, are almost certainly exaggerated.

ISIS’s pressure in the CSD has begun to disrupt pro-regime operations in vital population centers outside the desert. The reallocation of pro-regime military resources to central Syria is already thinning the regime’s front lines in Idlib and the Hama-Homs corridor as pro-regime forces redeploy from these areas to the CSD.[27] Russia also redeployed the Russian-backed 5^th Corps 8^th Brigade from Dera’a to the CSD on February 26, weakening the Russian effort to stabilize southwestern Syria.[28] ISIS is also threatening pro-regime forces’ ability to reinforce front lines with Turkey north of Raqqa City.[29]

ISIS pressure has forced the regime to turn to Russia and Iran for increasing economic and military support. ISIS attacks on energy infrastructure have driven up oil prices and limited oil access, worsening the economic collapse in regime-held Syria and fueling growing instability in loyalist areas.[30] Russia and Iran have seized this opportunity to expand their military presence along the Euphrates River Valley, provoking more resource competition within the pro-regime coalition but also increased Russian and Iranian recruitment from the Arab tribes in SDF-held Syria, potentially threatening the SDF’s control.[31]

ISIS is exploiting the regime’s newly thinned defenses and attacking key villages in Hama. ISIS temporarily seized populated terrain near the town of Rahjan three times between October 2020 and January 2021, forcing civilians to flee the area and setting up multiple layers of defense to block the regime’s counter-attack.[32] Rahjan is key terrain that hosts a regime base. If ISIS seized the town itself, the group would be able to threaten regime GLOCs through Ithriya, the key node of regime transit between Idlib and Raqqa provinces. The regime has recaptured the terrain each time, but in two cases was only able to do so by redeploying additional units to the area and calling in artillery support and Russian airstrikes.[33] In a sign of the regime’s failing defenses, the regime was incapable of sending elite Tiger forces to secure Rahjan and instead attempted to organize local tribes into an anti-ISIS militia after the October 2020 seizure.[34] The militia likely lacks the skills and equipment to prevent ISIS from retaking this terrain, thus reinforcing its dependence on Russian air support, which is in short supply. Future ISIS attacks in this area are likely. ISIS’s central media has thus far refrained from claiming land seizures in Rahjan, possibly indicating that ISIS is wary to do so until it can hold the terrain.[35]

ISIS may scale up efforts to seize populated terrain and oil infrastructure in the coming months, including during Ramadan from April 12 to May 12, 2021. ISIS typically launches a surge in operations during Ramadan that includes major attacks that surpass the prior baseline of activity.[36] This year, ISIS is well-positioned to scale up its attacks on oil infrastructure, potentially seizing multiple facilities–including the T2 oil pump station 40 miles west of Albu Kamal along the Iraq-Syria pipeline or the al Hayl or Tuweinan gas refineries. In a most dangerous scenario, ISIS and pro-regime forces could reach some accommodation in central Syria that allows ISIS to retain control of oil or gas facilities if it decreases pressure on regime GLOCS and pivots to surge in other areas the regime wants destabilized. ISIS could alternately launch a new attempt to seize rural towns or to attack into urban centers thus far secured by pro-regime forces, including Sukhna or Palmyra.

ISIS is positioned to expand its campaign outward from the CSD. ISIS could move north from the CSD to further undermine Turkish-backed governance and strengthen smuggling routes across the Turkish-Syrian border.[37] ISIS already escalated attacks in Turkish-controlled portions of Aleppo Province in June 2020 after two years of relative inactivity in that zone.[38] As ISIS continues to expand westward into Hama, ISIS cells could also begin to threaten pro-regime transit along the M5 highway, which would cause a major economic disruption that the regime cannot afford. ISIS has similarly begun to expand out of the CSD to the southwest: ISIS cells in the CSD attacked energy infrastructure between al Dumayr and Adra, 20 miles northeast of Damascus, in August of 2020, causing blackouts along the entire Syrian coast.[39] ISIS conducts regular assassinations and possibly explosive attacks in loosely regime-held Dera’a and is likely overlapping campaigns with anti-regime forces and intra-regime feuds from its base in the CSD.[40] ISIS could use its nascent base southwest of Palmyra, near Quryatayn, to escalate attacks on regime positions outside Damascus or through Suwayda to Dera’a. Finally, ISIS can also pivot east. ISIS is already using its positions in regime-held Deir ez-Zour to infiltrate and destabilize SDF-held areas.[41] ISIS could expand its control from Faydat in the northeastern CSD, along the road to Mayadin, from which it could launch attacks to attempt to seize SDF-held villages across the Euphrates from Mayadin.[42]

[1] “[ISIS Destroys 3 sites belonging to the Iranian militias in Deir ez-Zour],” Syria TV, December 10, 2020, http://syria dot tv/%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%85-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1

[5 regime forces killed in repeated attacks by ISIS in the desert near Palmyra], Radio al Kul, December 4, 2020, .https://www dot radioalkul.com/p357059/

[2] “ISIS claims killing regime units in rural Salamiya,” Enab Baladi, December 14, 2020 [1] https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/440077

“Syrian desert in 24 hours | 22 regime soldiers and ISIS members killed in violent clashes, while nearly 70 Russian airstrikes pound the region,” Syria Observatory for Human Rights, December 13, 2020, .https://www dot syriahr.com/en/195855/

“[ISIS announces that it killed 13 members of the regime in rural Hama],” Qasioun News, December 15, 2020, .https://www dot qasioun-news.com/ar/articles/232388/%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A9-13-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%85%D9%86-%

D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A9

Similarly, Liwa al Fatemiyoun, Liwa al Quds, and SAA 7^th Division 137^th Artillery Regiment attempted to secure the Shula-Kabbajab sector of the DeZ-Palmyra highway on 08-11 JAN. After establishing a base near Shoula, Liwa al Quds and possible Tiger Forces in support moved to reclaim the Tayba oil field, 12 mi north of Sukhna. ISIS repelled a clearing attempt of Tayba with IEDs, killing at least 5 LQ members and possibly damaging a tank

“ISIS resurgence | Nearly 20 members of regime forces and Al-Quds Brigade killed and wounded in new attack in Deir Ezzor desert”, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 11, 2021, https://www.syriahr.com/en/199972/

“[’Desert Ambushes’ continue… regime dead and wounded in rural Deir ez-Zour and Raqqa,]” Shaam News Network, January 11, 2021, http://www dot shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D9%83%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%84-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%A3%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9.html

“[The Syrian Desert: ISIS kills and injures tens of regime forces and develops its attack methods,” al Quds, December 5, 2020, https://www dot alquds.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%82%D8%B9-%D8%B9%D8%B4/

[3] “ISIS claims killing regime units in rural Salamiya,” Enab Baladi, December 14, 2020, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/440077

“[ISIS announces that it killed 13 members of the regime in rural Hama],” Qasioun News, December 15, 2020, https://www dot qasioun-news.com/ar/articles/232388/%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%A5%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A9-13-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A9

[4] Some of the most high-profile of these attacks:
Qaryatayn: “[Simultaneous with attacks by ISIS… Regime warplanes target several locations in Deir ez-Zour,]” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 2, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/%D8%AA%D8%B2%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%8B-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B0%D9%87-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84/401406/

Shoula: The Fourth Division, Facebook, December 30, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2864498750496573&id=2011572052455918&__cft__[0]=AZWC9MfxzonOmHq-J3v6QrDm6hksSlJ24ccI5m6bMBcGjxxlV5a5_GVrcWB-qQNwdtGOlo0xcVEi-Nox8_MZq2n1dBPThhyMmroKHL6iX9K0AyPsCdcIPWdDEORKOKcBbFW7HQPNW5-TJVTHK012vmsU&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Site Intel Group, “IS Claims Killing 40 Syrian Soldiers in Ambush on Bus” SITE, December 31, 2020, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/is-claims-killing-40-syrian-soldiers-in-ambush-on-bus.html

DNGTS: “[The leader of the 17th Division swears revenge over the deaths of Assad regime fighters in the southern Deir ez-Zour Desert,]” Deir ez-Zour 24, December 31, 2020, https://deirezzor24 dot net/%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-17-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%84%d9%82%d8%aa%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7/

“[Dead in the targeting of a convoy transporting regime forces to eastern Syria,]” Enab Baladi, December 12, 2020, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/444578

“[Most of them died in an ambush in rural Deir ez-Zour… The deaths of tens of officers and forces for the regime in various areas,]” Shaam News Network, December 31, 2020, http://www dot shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B8%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%83%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B6%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B7-%D9%88%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9.html

Ithriya:”[Five Assad forces dead in ISIS attacks on the Ithriya-Khanasir road,]” Shaam News Network, September 21, 2020, http://www dot shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A5%D8%AB%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AE%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1.html

Resafa: “[Raqqa: Announcement of the death of regime forces in an ISIS attack,]” Enab Baladi, October 2, 2020, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/420345

Faydat: “ISIS resurgence | Leader of “137th Regiment” among nearly 30 regime soldiers and NDF members killed and injured by ambush in Al-Mayadeen,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, November 18, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/192470/

[5] This study is sincerely indebted to the work of Gregory Waters, which provided a priceless reference point and quality check for all of the author’s independently gathered data.

Gregory Waters, “'A Force They Haven’t Seen Before': Insurgent ISIS in Central Syria,” Middle East Institute, April 15, 2020, https://www.mei.edu/publications/force-they-havent-seen-insurgent-isis-central-syria

Gregory Waters “Strengthening and Expanding: ISIS’ Central Syria Campaign,” Newlines Institute, August 19, 2020, https://newlinesinstitute.org/isis/strengthening-and-expanding-isis-central-syria-campaign/

[6] “[Under the name of ‘White Desert’… A military operation to follow ISIS in the desert,]” Euphrates Post, September 7, 2020

https://euphratespost dot net/%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A/

[7] Gregory Waters, Twitter, August 26, 2020, https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1299025578419519489

“[The Doubayat field in the Syrian Desert… the scene of violent battles between ISIS, the regime, and Russia,” SY-24, September 8, 2020, https://www.sy-24 dot com/news/D8ADD982D984-D8A7D984D8B6D8A8D98AD8A7D8AA-D8A8D8A7D984D8A8D8A7D8AFD98AD8A9-D8A7D984D8B3D988D8B1D98AD8A9-D985D8B3D8B1D8AD-D984D985/

“Russian forces spread through Deir ez-Zour… what’s the reason?” Baladi News, September 15, 2020,

https://www dot baladi-news.com/ar/articles/65105/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-..-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A8%D8%9F

Gregory Waters identified the third assault as an attack seizing checkpoints “around Sukhnah” that killed 4; the author assesses that these were checkpoints at or around Doubayat.

Gregory Waters, Twitter, October 8, 2020 https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1314223394011914240;

Gregory Waters, “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in October 2020,” Counter-Extremism Project, November 10, 2020, https://www.counterextremism.com/blog/isis-redux-central-syria-insurgency-october-2020

Al Badia 24, Facebook, October 5, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/ALBADIA24/posts/398981808166245?__cft__%5b0%5d=AZWvRkT9Q7rrovYJtXnmKfMsuqvN_Dp4AK2GTO9noxXwk5eMReApvJRXfpgiDWIJTdeZT57pzDFQNV4lQWAcVh7aQrUyk1pRcu-uCSsK2egh4ruTMCjBEhXTRYv7Ayy_idBjvUfn4ePRyNKgGXt43noY&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

NORSforStudies, Twitter, October 5, 2020, https://twitter.com/NorsForStudies/status/1313237788565929989

No reporting on this attack specifies what regime units were involved; the assessment that this was 5^th Corps is based on deaths in the area later that same week.

[8] “Russian forces spread through Deir ez-Zour… what’s the reason?” Baladi News, September 15, 2020,

[9] “Russian forces spread through Deir ez-Zour… what’s the reason?” Baladi News, September 15, 2020,

[10] “Russian general killed in roadside bombing attack in east Syria,” al Masdar News, August 19, 2020, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-general-killed-in-roadside-bombing-attack-in-east-syria/

Adnan Ahmed and Abd al Rahman Khidr, “Russia trains Syrian regime forces and the US coalition supports the SDF,” al Araby, January 16, 2021

https://www dot alaraby.co.uk/node/1361919

[11] A key example of a gap between zones is at Tibni, southwest of Ma’adan, where locals have formed independent militia to mitigate the regime-sponsored security vacuum. See Kayla Koontz and Gregory Waters, “Between the Coalition, ISIS, and Assad: Courting the Tribes of Deir ez-Zour,” Middle East Institute, November 3, 2020, https://www.mei.edu/publications/between-coalition-isis-and-assad-courting-tribes-deir-ez-zor.

There are likely similar gaps in the deep desert at Juweif, north of Faydat, and possibly at Ulayniya, south of Palmyra.

[12] Christopher Kozak, “’An Army in All Corners’ Assad’s Campaign Strategy in Syria” Institute for the Study of War, April 2015, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/An%20Army%20in%20All%20Corners%20by%20Chris%20Kozak%201.pdf

[13] Gregory Waters, ““A Force They Haven’t Seen Before”: Insurgent ISIS in Central Syria,” Middle East Institute, April 15, 2020, https://www.mei.edu/publications/force-they-havent-seen-insurgent-isis-central-syria

[14] “The Russians delegate leadership of battles against ISIS to Wagner group,” Qasioun news, December 2, 2020

https://www dot qasioun-news.com/ar/articles/231961/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3-%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%86-%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83-%D8%B6%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%BA%D9%86%D8%B1

Emad Karkas, “Syrian: Iranian militia deaths in an ISIS attack in Deir ez-Zour,” al Araby, 10 December, 2020, https://www dot alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1

“The Latest: Russian private military contractors in Syria,” AP News, June 20, 2019, https://apnews.com/article/61b26d25e24e4115873b39a8de8dcf32

George Barros with Jennifer Cafarella, “Belarusian Forces May Deploy to Syria in late 2021,” Institute for the Study of War, February 4, 2021, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/belarus-warning-update-belarusian-forces-may-deploy-syria-late-2021

[15] “[Dead from the Baqir militia in rural Salamiya.. ISIS adopts the attack,]” Enab Baladi, February 3, 2021, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/455440

“IS Attack Kills 19 in Central Syria,” Naharnet, February 3, 2021, http://www dot naharnet.com/stories/en/279166-is-attack-kills-19-in-central-syria

“ISIS resurgence | Members launch new surprise attack, killing nearly 20 regime soldiers and loyal militiamen in eastern Hama”, Syria Observatory for Human Rights, February 3, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/203535/

“19 killed in an ISIS attack in Hama,” Shafaq, February 3, 2021, https://shafaq dot com/en/World/19-killed-in-an-ISIS-attack-in-Hama

“19 Assad forces dead in an ISIS attach,” PUK Media, February 3, 2021, http://pukmedia dot com/AR_Direje.aspx?Jimare=153980

Jalal Bakur, “10s killed and injured from the Syrian regime in ISIS attack in Hama,” al Araby, February 3, 2021, https://www dot alaraby.co.uk/politics/%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A9

Gregory Waters, Twitter, February 17, 2021, https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1362150967416938496

[16] Emad Karkas, “Syrian: Iranian militia deaths in an ISIS attack in Deir ez-Zour,” al Araby, 10 December, 2020, https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/politics/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1

“Meeting of Russians with regime leaders after the death of the 137th Brigade leader in Deir ez-Zour,” HalabTodayTV, November 20, 2020,

https://halabtodaytv dot net/archives/166642

[17] Manhal Bareesh, “[After the death of 40 members of the 4th Division: Will ISIS drag ISIS into the shifting sands of the Syrian Desert],” al Quds, January 2, 2021,

https://www.alquds dot co.uk/بعد-مقتل-40-عنصرا-من-الفرقة-الرابعة-هل-سي/

[18] “Death and injured from the Iranian forces in the Syrian Desert,” JesrPress, February 21, 2021, https://www.jesrpress dot com/2021/02/21/%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A/

New ambush | ISIS kills four regime soldiers on Damascus-Deir Ezzor highway,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 17, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/205392/

“[ISIS attack targets a convoy of Qaterji tankers in rural Homs,]” Qasiyoun, February 11, 2021,

https://www dot qasioun-news.com/ar/articles/234227/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B5

[19] Tiger Forces have supported high-stakes clearing operations by the SAA 5^th Corps in Deir ez-Zour/Homs (in Sukhna/Doubayat (06-12 SEP) and Mayadin (02 DEC)), and separately in the Hama/Raqqa theater (Khanasir-Ithriya (17 SEP) and Rahjan (13-16 DEC; 31 DEC-08 JAN)). It is unknown whether Tiger Forces are permanently stationed in small numbers at the hardened Russian bases in each theater (DeZ Airport in DeZ/Homs, Abu ad Duhor or Tabqa in Hama/Raqqa); they are more likely are moving between these two theaters and possibly the Idlib front lines. The regime has a limited stock of these well-trained elite forces and cannot afford to have them clear a given area for long periods – hence the repeated loss of Doubayat Gas Field following the departure of high-quality regime units.

“[The Doubayat field in the Syrian Desert… the scene of violent battles between ISIS, the regime, and Russia,” SY-24, September 8, 2020, https://www dot sy-24.com/news/D8ADD982D984-D8A7D984D8B6D8A8D98AD8A7D8AA-D8A8D8A7D984D8A8D8A7D8AFD98AD8A9-D8A7D984D8B3D988D8B1D98AD8A9-D985D8B3D8B1D8AD-D984D985/

No official armored units were involved in this operation and the 5^th Corps 7^th Brigade has not used tanks previously. However, the Tiger forces had an “Armored unit of unknown size” as of OCT 2018 which used T-90 and T-72 tanks. Tiger forces also have BMP infantry fighting vehicles which are often misreported as tanks.

Gregory Waters, “The Tiger Forces: Pro-Assad Fighters Backed by Russia,” Middle East Institute, October 2018, https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/2018-11/TigerForces.pdf

“The Russians delegate leadership of battles against ISIS to Wagner group,” Qasioun news, December 2, 2020

Gregory Waters, Twitter, September 19, 2020

https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1307527149558132737

“ISIS claims killing regime units in rural Salamiya,” Enab Baladi, December 14, 2020

https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/440077

“[ISIS claims attacks on the Syrian regime in rural Salamiya,]” Enab Baladi, December 14, 2020

https://www dot biladynews.com/2020/12/31/%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%BA%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B8%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B5-%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%B1/

“ISIS attacks the Syrian regime in eastern Hama,” January 8, 2021,

https://www dot elbalad.news/4648397

[20] ISIS VBIED attack at al Taym on 03 February likely intended to disrupt Russian counter-ISIS operations along the DeZ-Palmyra road throughout January; those c-ISIS operations paused for at least a week to recover.

Omar Abu Layla, Twitter, February 3, 2021, https://twitter.com/OALD24/status/1357067712007196672

“ISIS attack kills 7 regime loyalists in Syria’s eastern province of Deir Ezzor,” Al Arabiya, January 9, 2021, http://english dot alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2021/01/09/ISIS-attack-kills-7-regime-loyalists-in-Syria-s-eastern-province-of-Deir-Ezzor

“Deir Ezzor | Unknown gunmen attack military checkpoint with RPG, and others open fire on civilian official of Autonomous Administration,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 1, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/203264/

“[Tens killed and injured from Assad’s forces in a large explosion in Deir ez-Zour,” el Dorar, February 4, 2021, https://eldorar dot com/node/160183

Similarly, the ISIS attack on Hamdan airbase in late OCT 2020 likely intended to disrupt Iranian response to ISIS’s ongoing operations in Hama.

“[ISIS continues its attacks in rural Deir ez-Zour and reaches the area of the airport,” Xeber 24, October 28, 2020,

https://xeber24 dot org/archives/304567

[21] “[Dead from the Baqir militia in rural Salamiya.. ISIS adopts the attack,]” Enab Baladi, February 3, 2021, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/455440

“IS Attack Kills 19 in Central Syria,” Naharnet, February 3, 2021, http://www dot naharnet.com/stories/en/279166-is-attack-kills-19-in-central-syria

“19 killed in an ISIS attack in Hama,” Shafaq, February 3, 2021, https://shafaq dot com/en/World/19-killed-in-an-ISIS-attack-in-Hama

“19 Assad forces dead in an ISIS attach,” PUK Media, February 3, 2021, http://pukmedia dot com/AR_Direje.aspx?Jimare=153980

Jalal Bakur, “10s killed and injured from the Syrian regime in ISIS attack in Hama,” al Araby, February 3, 2021, https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/politics/%D9%85%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84-%D9%88%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A9

[22] “Russian forces spread through Deir ez-Zour… what’s the reason?” Baladi News, September 15, 2020,

https://www.baladi-news dot com/ar/articles/65105/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-..-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A8%D8%9F

“[Under the name of ‘White Desert’… A military operation to follow ISIS in the desert,]” Euphrates Post, September 7, 2020

[23] Taym: Emad Karkas, “[Syrian: Dead among the Iranian militias in ISIS attacks in Deir ez-Zour,]” al Araby, December 10, 2020,

https://www.alaraby dot co.uk/politics/%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D9%80%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1

Halab Today TV, Twitter, September 10, 2020, https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1303943907953324040

Shoula: “[Russian Forces Spread in the Shoula area in southern Deir ez-Zour,]” Deir Ezzor 24, August 2020,

https://deirezzor24 dot net/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%b4%d8%b1-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b7%d9%82%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7/

“[A look at Global Jihad,10-16 September 2020]” Meir Amit Center, September 21, 2020, https://www dot terrorism-info.org.il/ar/%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A-16-10-%D8%A3%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%B1/

Doubayat: Gregory Waters, Twitter, August 27, 2020, https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1299025578419519489

[24] Gregory Waters, Twitter, September 19, 2020,

https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1307527149558132737

“5 killed from Assad’s forces in ISIS attacks on the Ithriya-Khanasir road,” Shaam News Network, April 21, 2020

http://www dot shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D8%AE%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A5%D8%AB%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AE%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1.html

A similar attack followed regime clearing operations in Deir ez-Zour in December 2020:

Gregory Waters, Twitter, December 28, 2020, https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1343638668452499457

“[The leader of the 17th Division swears revenge over the deaths of Assad regime fighters in the southern Deir ez-Zour Desert,]” Deir ez-Zour 24, December 31, 2020, https://deirezzor24 dot net/%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%af-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-17-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%af-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%84%d9%82%d8%aa%d9%84%d9%89-%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7/

“[Dead in the targeting of a convoy transporting regime forces to eastern Syria,]” Enab Baladi, December 12, 2020, https://www.enabbaladi dot net/archives/444578

“[Most of them died in an ambush in rural Deir ez-Zour… The deaths of tens of officers and forces for the regime in various areas,]” Shaam News Network, December 31, 2020, http://www.shaam dot org/news/syria-news/%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B8%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%83%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%B6%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B7-%D9%88%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%85%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B7%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%82%D8%A9.html

[25] “New ambush | ISIS kills four regime soldiers on Damascus-Deir Ezzor highway,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 17, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/205392/

“[ISIS attack targets a convoy of Qaterji tankers in rural Homs,]” Qasiyoun, February 11, 2021, https://www dot qasioun-news.com/ar/articles/234227/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%8A%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%D9%81-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%B5%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%B5

”[Regime militias and those backed by Russia continue their military operations against ISIS in the Syrian Desert under Russian air cover,]” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 3, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d8%b8%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b4%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%84%d8%b1%d9%88/419552/

“Backed by Russian air support | Regime forces and Russian-backed militias continue military operations against ISIS in Syrian desert,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 3, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/203430/

“In the last 48 hours… More than 100 Russian air strikes in the Syrian Desert,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 2, 2021, https://www.syriahr dot com/%d8%ae%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8048-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%aa%d8%a9-%d8%a3%d9%83%d8%ab%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-100-%d8%ba%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%ac%d9%88/419532/

[26] “[Russia launches the ‘White Desert’ operation in the Syrian Desert],” Baladi News, AUgust 25, 2020, https://www.baladi-news dot com/ar/articles/64347/%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D8%B7%D9%84%D9%82-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%22%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%A1%22-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9

al Araby and SOHR estimate 22 ISIS deaths in the clashes; airstrikes may have caused low tens deaths but it’s unlikely that more deaths could be evidenced given that there was no immediate follow-on ground operation to clear and secure the hideouts. Later, on 30 AUG, Amin al Aasi, “[The Syrian Desert: a Black Hole Swallowing Regime Force,]” al Araby, August 30, 2020, https://www dot alaraby.co.uk/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AB%D9%82%D8%A8-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%B9-%D9%82%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85

“Despite Russian air strikes… About 100 regime forces and militias dead or missing in ISIS operations in the Syrian Desert,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, August 29, 2020,

https://www.syriahr dot com/%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D8%BA%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%82/394153/

Russian Wagner units have come forwards about the challenging conditions they face in the Desert. Liliya Yapparova, “‘Guys, you’re destined for war’ Combatant from the Russian mercenary group tied to 'Putin's chef' grants Meduza the first interview of its kind,” Meduza, December 2, 2020

https://meduza dot io/en/feature/2020/12/03/guys-you-re-destined-for-war

[27] [27]“[Assad forces reinforcements from the 5th Corps arrive in the Deir ez-Zour Desert,]” Deir ezzor 24, August 2020,

https://deirezzor24 dot net/%d8%aa%d8%b9%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%84%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%aa%d9%85%d8%ab%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%82-%d8%a7%d9%84/

“[The most important daily news from Syria and the world - Tuesday 20/10/2020,]” STEP Agency SY, October 20, 2020,

https://stepagency-sy.net/2020/10/20/%d8%a3%d9%87%d9%85-%d8%a3%d8%ae%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%85-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85-47/

[28] “Fighters from Dera’a in the front lines in the Syrian Desert,” Enab Baladi, February 25, 2021,

https://www.enabbaladi dot net/archives/461075

Michael Land and Diana Barany, “Russia and Aligned Former Opposition Fighters Leverage Growing anti-Assad Sentiment to Expand Control in Southern Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23, 2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-and-aligned-former-opposition-fighters-leverage-growing-anti-assad-sentiment

[29] For example, units moving to Ain Issa are forced to transit through Resafa, which is at risk. Al Badia 24, Facebook, December 20, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/ALBADIA24/posts/461736811890744?__cft__%5b0%5d=AZV9V1O_PW7t8m9g5aZMKAFvsdFnpHbpH38wOSJ4ocM3DQVpsy78V95K6YF2j4YjubT9LYQ75X7gsI5ILEKzg-7GlyXJ1cyVB4AbVO9p7qamudNRe7C4ZqAUvvdQ3aQlamfxKOMTwlui2-HOGWm2sZZt&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

[30] “Government-held areas of Syria raise fuel prices, blaming US sanctions,” al Arabiya, October 21, 2020, https://english dot alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2020/10/21/Government-held-areas-of-Syria-raise-fuel-prices-blaming-US-sanctions

Dia Awda, “Agreements between ISIS and Hussam Qaterji, Assad’s man… Attacks escalate the oil crisis in Syria,” al Hurra, January 11, 2021,

https://www.alhurra dot com/syria/2021/01/11/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%8A-%D8%B1%D8%AC%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%85-%D8%A3%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B7-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A7

[31]“Assad forces command pressures militia’ fighters to join Military Security branch in Deir Ezzor,” Deir Ezzor 24, February 2021,

https://deirezzor24 dot net/en/assad-forces-command-pressures-militia-fighters-to-join-military-security-branch-in-deir-ezzor/

“To counter Iran’s expansion and weaken SDF | Russian forces plan to recruit Arab tribesmen in al-Qamishli and al-Hasaka,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 18, 2021,https://www dot syriahr.com/en/205506/

“Nearly 550 people recruited in five weeks: ‘Liiwa al Fatemiyoun’ continues recruiting young males and men in al Qamishli and al Hasakah,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 21, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/206040/

[32] Badia 24, Facebook, October 22, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/ALBADIA24/posts/413665176697908?__cft__%5b0%5d=AZXnKP_YxuKRkFp_5qGPFKnqiXICaNcY8Soro115DcqHZM-3wMxaSjUOc3x8OIvtmqht1dEKdFSY-BmYaegsRIAQTwiw0eGOneWM86bFWWLKUQpNA9HmId10UVvky4226XDIbW58XItsE20UF6PdE9Cp&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R

Gregory Waters, “ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency in October 2020,” November 10, 2020, (GW)

“Regime forces and militias dead in clashes with ISIS in Hama,” Baladi News, December 16, 2020,

https://www.baladi-news dot com/ar/articles/68757/%D9%82%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%84%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%B0%D9%80%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%A9

“[ISIS attacks on Syrian forces in rural eastern Hama,]” el Balad, February 8, 2021,

https://www.elbalad dot news/4648397

[32] “[Tribes in the Syrian Desert are the victim to terror from regime militias and ISIS,]” Syria TV, December 11, 2020, https://www dot syria.tv/%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B6%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4

[33] “[Tribes in the Syrian Desert are the victim to terror from regime militias and ISIS,]” Syria TV, December 11, 2020, https://www dot syria.tv/%D8%B9%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%B6%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A5%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4

[34] Hamam Aissa al Sheikh, Facebook, October 27, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/humamlssa/posts/163087215457465

The Liberated of Mayadin, Facebook, October 24, 2020, https://www.facebook.com/Ahraralmayadeen/posts/1313598922309672

“[To fight the ISIS threat.. Assad forces and Iranian militias create a ‘Tribal Army’ in the Syrian Desert,]” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, October 25, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A9-%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%8A%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%82/404133/

[35] Claims from a survey of al Naba weekly magazines, collected on Telegram, Archive.org, and with the assistance of Aaron Zelin’s Jihadology.org.

[36] Brandon Wallace, “ISIS Reasserts Global Reach for Ramadan 2019,” Institute for the Study of War, May 1, 2019, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/isis-reasserts-global-reach-ramadan-2019

[37] These routes have reportedly been suppressed by Turkey with some success, per the “Operation Inherent Resolve: Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress, October 1 2020-December 31 2020,” Lead Inspector General for the Department of Defense, February 9, 2021

[38] IbnalArabi15, Twitter, February 19, 2021, https://twitter.com/IbnAlarabi15/status/1362875394353995781

Ranosheh81, Twitter, February 20, 2021, https://twitter.com/ranosheh81/status/1363043948718141442

“[In one day… ISIS claims 6 attacks in Syria,]” Enab Baladi, February 22, 2021, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/460246

“New attack | ISIS cells kill four Syrian militiamen in IRGC positions in Deir Ezzor countryside,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 20, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/205913/

Eva Kahan and Nicholas Heras, “E34: ISIS Escalates Violence in Turkish-held Parts of Northwest Syria,” Overwatch Podcast, August 14, 2020, https://www.stitcher.com/show/overwatch-2/episode/e34-isis-escalates-violence-in-turkish-held-parts-of-northwest-syria-76964317

[39] Gregory Waters, Twitter, August 23, 2020, https://twitter.com/GregoryPWaters/status/1297756396256198656?s=20

“Syria says pipeline blast was terrorist attack, U.S. suspects IS,” Reuters, August 23, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-blast-electricity/explosion-on-syria-gas-pipeline-a-terrorist-attack-minister-idUSKBN25K062

Bethan McKernan, “Arab gas pipeline explosion caused Syria blackout – state media,” The Guardian, August 23, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/24/arab-gas-pipeline-explosion-leads-to-total-blackout-in-syria-state-media

Albert Aji “Blast hits pipeline in Syria, causing wide power outages,” ABC News, August 24, 2020, https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/electricity-cut-syria-explosion-hits-gas-pipeline-72563164

“[ISIS announces an ambush that kills tens of regime forces,]” Enab Baladi, June 22, 2018, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/236705

“ISIS resurgence | Three National Defense members killed in attack by cells on their positions in Deir ez-Zor,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, June 21, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/171078/?doing_wp_cron=1592777982.3631470203399658203125

[40] Michael Land and Diana Barany, “Russia and Aligned Former Opposition Fighters Leverage Growing anti-Assad Sentiment to Expand Control in Southern Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, July 23, 2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-and-aligned-former-opposition-fighters-leverage-growing-anti-assad-sentiment

[41] Gregory Waters “Strengthening and Expanding: ISIS’ Central Syria Campaign,” Newlines Institute, August 19, 2020 https://newlinesinstitute.org/isis/strengthening-and-expanding-isis-central-syria-campaign/

Eva Kahan, “Anti-ISIS Coalition Begins Losing Tribal Support in Syria,” Institute for the Study of War, August 20, 2020, http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/anti-isis-coalition-begins-losing-tribal-support-syria

[42] ISIS has already begun to expand near Buqrus al Tahtani and Ashara, north and south of Mayadin respectively:

”Escalating security chaos | Beheaded NDF member found in Al-Mayadeen desert,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 24, 2021, https://www.syriahr.com/en/206414/

“[Members of the Fourth Division killed in an explosion in eastern Deir ez-Zour,]” Hal, February 25, 2021, https://7al dot net/2021/02/25/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%aa%d9%84-%d8%b9%d9%86%d8%a7%d8%b5%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%82%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%b9%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%aa%d9%81%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b1/?=razzaq-a&news

“[Dead from the ranks of the Republican Guard in ISIS attacks in Deir ez-Zour,” Halab Today TV, February 21, 2021,

https://halabtodaytv dot net/archives/179619?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=%25d9%2582%25d8%25aa%25d9%2584%25d9%2589-%25d8%25a8%25d8%25b5%25d9%2581%25d9%2588%25d9%2581-%25d8%25a7%25d9%2584%25d8%25ad%25d8%25b1%25d8%25b3-%25d8%25a7%25d9%2584%25d8%25ab%25d9%2588%25d8%25b1%25d9%258a-%25d8%25a8%25d9%2587%25d8%25ac%25d9%2588%25d9%2585-%25d9%2584%25d8%25aa%25d9%2586%25d8%25b8%25d9%258a%25d9%2585-%25d8%25a7

These villages are particularly vulnerable due to a pattern of ISIS attacks to assert social control. A few examples of the deteriorating security conditions in Busayra and the surrounding towns (Shuhail, Sabha, Takihi):

“Deir Ezzor | ISIS members threaten residents to kill their sons if not give up working for SDF,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, February 14, 2021, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/205057/

“[Deir ez-Zour.. Discovering a severed head with ISIS’s signature in Shuheil,]” Syria TV, February 16, 2021,

http://syria dot tv/%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%B1%D8%A3%D8%B3-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%B7%D9%88%D8%B9-%D8%A8%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%B9-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B4%D8%AD%D9%8A%D9%84

“[The assassination of the shared president for Kibr village in rural western Deir ez-Zour,]” Enab Baladi, December 22, 2020, https://www dot enabbaladi.net/archives/442209

“IED attack | Assassination on head of local council in western Deir ez-Zor countryside,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 22, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/197083/

“[With ISIS cell activity in rural Deir ez-Zour… Execution of a civilian with bullets in his home.. and assassination of an SDF member who was in ISIS’s ranks,]” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 22, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/%d9%85%d8%b9-%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b7-%d8%ae%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%a7-%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%b8%d9%8a%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b3%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%a9/412024/

Caki, Twitter, December 12, 2020, https://twitter.com/Caki____/status/1338892920863252487?s=20

“Discovering two bodies with severed heads in Busayra, eastern Deir ez-Zour,” Deir Ezzor 24, December 2020, https://deirezzor24 dot net/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%ab%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%ac%d8%ab%d8%aa%d9%8a%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%82%d8%b7%d9%88%d8%b9%d8%aa%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b1%d8%a3%d8%b3-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%8a%d9%86/

“[On it, a message from ISIS… discovering two bodies without heads in eastern Deir ez-Zour,” Shaam News Network, December 15, 2020, http://www dot shaam.org/news/syria-news/%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B9-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%87%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%AB%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%AC%D8%AB%D8%AA%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A3%D8%B3-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1.html

““This is a punishment for those who ask for money in the name of the Islamic State” | ISIS cells slaughter two men with knife in al-Busayrah, east of Deir ez-Zor,” Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 15, 2020, https://www dot syriahr.com/en/196057/

ISIS Poised for a Ramadan Surge in Syria

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