Sadr Attempts a De-facto Coup in Iraq

 

The security situation in Baghdad could deteriorate further if the demonstrations do not de-escalate, as many Popular Mobilization members were withdrawing to Baghdad to conduct clearing operations in the southern Baghdad Belts area to address a growing ISIS threat in the area. The Defense Ministry had announced, with very poor timing, the start of clearing operations against ISIS cells in areas south of Baghdad led by the 17th Iraqi Army (IA) Division, a formation currently tasked with providing security in Baghdad and the surrounding belts area, with the participation of Popular Mobilization fighters. These areas south of Baghdad, including northern Babil Province, have recently experienced a deteriorated security situation due to ISIS attacks, particularly following the detonation of a massive Vehicle-borne Improvises Explosive Device (VBIED) on March 6 that killed at least 60 people and wounded at least 70 others, and several attempted attacks over the past week. Several Iranian proxy militias, including the Badr Organization and Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, deployed to the southern Baghdad Belts area for the operation, though Badr Organization political bloc leader Qassim al-Araji stated that the forces were only for the clearing operation and would not enter Baghdad, collide with demonstrators, or involve themselves in intra-Shi’a fighting. However, one unconfirmed report posted pictures and suggested that Federal Police, the Golden Division, and Iranian proxy militia Kata’ib Hezbollah were in the area “in case of an emergency.”

 

Meanwhile, there is a risk of an ISIS attack on Sadrist demonstrators. Thousands of Shi’a pilgrims have been entering Baghdad to commemorate the death of the Imam al-Kadhim, a major Shi’a holiday falling on May 3. This had already prompted the security forces to restrict access in many areas of Baghdad. ISIS had already taken advantage of the situation by launching a VBIED attack in the predominantly Shi’a Nahrawan area, southeast of Baghdad, on April 30 prior to the start of the demonstrations, killing at least 23 people and wounding at least 48 others. Other attacks included IED attacks on April 29 targeting pilgrims at a railway station south of Baghdad, though the attack was foiled. If security continues to deteriorate, then the demonstrations could stretch the security forces thin and expose the civilian population to an ISIS spectacular attack.

 

The security operation south of Baghdad appeared to be targeted at clearing ISIS from the area in order to protect pilgrims. However, the concentration of militia and security forces coincides dangerously with the start of the Sadrist demonstrations. The presence of Iraqi Shi’a militias, specifically Iranian proxy rivals of Sadr, in the Baghdad area is extremely dangerous. There is a high potential for violence between Iranian-backed militias and Sadrist security details and protesters if they encounter one another. Iran will likely order its proxies to avoid engaging with Sadrist elements in order to prevent a further escalation of the situation, but violence remains a possibility. Violence could also occur between the Sadrists and party elements, security forces, or militias in the southern provinces if demonstrators continue to attack party facilities and government buildings.

 

 

While the Sadrists dispersed to some extent as the night wore on, some set up tents in the Green Zone, signaling a likely sit-in at Grand Celebration Square. Sadr’s office stated that demonstrations would “wash away” the political quotas system and corruption from the government, and his call for a “popular uprising” is threatening to Iraq’s stability. Sadr could keep his supporters in the Green Zone and further compromise the area’s security while pressuring the political blocs to bend to his will and vote in a technocratic cabinet. However, the political blocs’ resistance to abandoning their control of their cabinet seats is making the political situation untenable. Sadr may continue to obstruct the work of the government until he can secure a full cabinet reshuffle. However, the other political blocs, and Maliki in particular, may try and retaliate. They may try and convince PM Abadi to unleash the security forces on the Sadrist demonstrators in order to re-establish order, a scenario that could see Sadrists clashing violently with the ISF. Worse, party-linked or Iranian proxy militias could begin clashing with Sadrists, particularly if the demonstrators continue to try and attack party headquarters in the southern provinces.

 

The three presidencies – PM Abadi, Speaker Juburi, and President Masoum – are slated to meet on May 1 with political bloc leaders to find a solution to the crisis. It is unclear if the Sadrist Trend will join, but Sadr is likely to try and use the force of the demonstrations to muscle concessions out of PM Abadi and the political blocs. Sadr will likely call off his supporters for another CoR session at some point, but he is unlikely to withdraw his supporters from the Green Zone without concrete concessions. The political crisis is likely to continue, and security threats remain potent. Meanwhile, the Sadrist opposition to U.S., as well as Iranian, participation in any attempt to mediate the political crisis will limit the U.S.’s ability to influence events, as the Sadrists could become even more agitated if the U.S. conducts high profile outreach against their wishes. Meanwhile, the Sadrists’ fierce opposition to Maliki and the Dawa Party threatens to further undermine the country’s stability; Maliki is unlikely to back down from the challenge that Sadr has issued and may find a way to retaliate, possibly through force or by massing his own, admittedly smaller, cadre of supporters in counter-protests.

 

It is unclear if Maliki will be able to use a judicial ruling to his advantage; although Maliki has been able to force the judiciary to rule in his favor during crises, it has remained distant during recent events. Notably, the judiciary issued a statement on April 18 that it would not ruleon the events of the CoR, including on the constitutionality of CoR sessions. This indicates that it was not willing to expose itself with a controversial statement in favor of Maliki’s supporters within the rump parliament movement. A judicial ruling thus remains a diminished, though still possible, method of retaliation by Maliki against Sadr.

 

 

The situation is unstable enough to put the U.S. Embassy on alert, and the U.S. must prepare a contingency plan in case the situation spirals out of control. Iraq’s political crisis has reached dangerous new heights that pose a serious threat to the stability of the government, and in the worst case scenario could also threaten U.S. forces. Negotiations will continue among political leaders and the current unrest is likely to reduce as the initial rioting burns out. Nevertheless, if the political blocs cannot come to an agreement, or if violence or an ISIS spectacular attack against the demonstrators occurs, the situation could collapse even further. The U.S. must be prepared for the worst case scenario that sees the political crisis leading to violence in Baghdad and the potential collapse of PM Abadi’s government and deploy diplomatic or military assets in order to mitigate the possibility of an even more disastrous state of affairs.