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Salafi-Jihadi Movement Weekly Update, June 21, 2023

Jun 23, 2023 - ISW Press

The Malian junta requested the UN to end its peacekeeping mission in Mali, which is very likely to enable Salafi-jihadi groups to expand and pose greater domestic and transnational threats. The withdrawal of the UN mission will very likely end reconciliation efforts between the Malian government and non-jihadist former rebel groups with ties to al Qaeda–linked militants in Mali. The al Qaeda–linked group in Mali will very likely use these ties and the resulting security vacuum to assert itself as the primary power broker across northern Mali, which it can then leverage to carry out more-sophisticated attacks in central and southern Mali and spread its insurgency to neighboring states in West Africa. The UN withdrawal will also very likely embolden the regional IS affiliate to establish territorial control in northeastern Mali, increasing the group’s threat to US personnel and interests in West Africa.

Iran Update, June 22, 2023

Jun 22, 2023 - ISW Press

Iranian companies are competing for Syrian electricity infrastructure contracts, likely to generate additional revenue for the Iranian economy and reinforce Iranian ties with the Syrian regime. Syrian Electricity Minister Ghassan al Zamil met with Iranian businesspeople to discuss establishing hydroelectric dams in Syria on June 20 in Damascus. This meeting comes after Iranian Energy Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian announced that Iran will help rehabilitate the Syrian water and electricity industry on May 7. It also follows Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Syria from May 3-4, during which he and Syrian President Bashar al Assad signed 15 cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding that cover oil, energy, transportation, reconstruction, and communications technology. The meeting demonstrates that Iran intends to be the primary provider of reconstruction projects in Syria.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2023

Jun 22, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces in the Kreminna area achieved partial successes and consolidated themselves in new positions. Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen reported that Ukrainian forces advanced up to one kilometer in western Zaporizhia Oblast and on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts. Shershen added that these Ukrainian advances were tactical measures aimed at improving Ukrainian positions along the front. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces also conducted unsuccessful offensive operations along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City front. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated on June 21 that Ukrainian forces have liberated eight settlements and over 113 square kilometers of territory since starting counteroffensive operations on June 4.

The ISW Briefing Room

Jun 22, 2023 - ISW Press

The ISW Briefing Room is a new video series that complements our written assessments and long-form research. ISW has launched the Briefing Room and a Virtual Event series in response to our readers’ interest in more interactive and multimedia content.

Iran Update, June 21, 2023

Jun 21, 2023 - ISW Press

The Syrian regime is leveraging regional normalization with Arab states to fund the reconstruction of Syria’s railways, which could block some Iranian efforts to secure revenue from such projects. The reconstruction of Syria’s rail infrastructure is likely to facilitate Iranian efforts to generate revenue through greater regional trade, nonetheless.

Iran is seeking to leverage arms sales to generate revenue for the Iranian economy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 21, 2023

Jun 21, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on June 21. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 21 that Ukrainian troops had partial success during offensive operations in the Bilohorivka-Shypylivka direction (about 10km south of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast). A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the areas south and west of Kreminna. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on the Vilne Pole-Makarivka line, and Russian milbloggers continued to discuss Ukrainian attacks in this area, particularly south of Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, both south and southwest of Orikhiv and that Russian forces are counterattacking to regain lost positions in this direction. Russian sources noted a relatively slower pace of Ukrainian offensive operations in both western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts compared to the previous days.

Iran Update, June 20, 2023

Jun 20, 2023 - ISW Press

An IRGC-affiliated news outlet tracked a US-Iraqi logistics convoy, possibly to signal Iranian intent to direct an attack on US interests in Iraq.

Iranian leaders met with senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Hamas officials in Tehran, likely to signal Iran will provide greater support to the groups to combat Israel. Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary Ahmadian meeting with senior PIJ and Hamas officials likely reflects his effort to integrate himself into Iranian policymaking vis-à-vis Israel.

The IRGC Intelligence Organization (IRGC-IO) chief framed threats to Iran in a domestic context, which indicates the organization is prioritizing internal security over external threats. Kazemi’s interview represents a continuation of the IRGC Intelligence Organization’s shift away from external threats toward internal security.

Iran is attempting to expand economic relations with Uzbekistan, likely to improve the Iranian economy.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2023

Jun 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on June 20. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts and in western Zaporizhia oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 19 that Russian forces have committed significant forces to stop Ukrainian offensives, making Ukrainian advances difficult. Malyar added that ongoing Ukrainian operations have several tasks that are not solely focused on liberating territory and that Ukrainian forces have yet to start the main phase of counteroffensive operations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 19, 2023

Jun 19, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the frontline and made gains on June 19. A Russian milblogger reported that Ukrainian troops continued attacks northwest, northeast, and southwest of Bakhmut on June 19 claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Krasnopolivka (about 12km northeast of Bakhmut). Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar additionally announced that over the past week, Ukrainian troops in the Tavrisk (Zaporizhia) direction have advanced up to seven kilometers and liberated 113 square kilometers of territory, including eight settlements in western Donetsk and western Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian troops attacked south of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on June 19 confirms that Ukrainian troops liberated Pyatykhatky, about 25km southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Milbloggers also reported fighting south and southwest of Orikhiv over the course of the day on June 19. The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed on June 19 that Russia has likely deployed large portions of the Dnipro Grouping of Forces from the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia and Bakhmut directions to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive actions over the past 10 days.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 18, 2023

Jun 18, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 18 and made limited territorial gains. Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces made limited advances within 30km south of Kreminna.Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces advanced more than a kilometer north of Avdiivka on the Donetsk City frontline over the past two weeks. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka on the administrative border between western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts and made some localized advances. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces entered the western part of Pyatykhatky (41km southeast of Zaporizhzhia City), southwest of Orikhiv. Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen stated that Russian forces continue to counterattack in western Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts, and that Ukrainian forces have “a lot of work.” Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Russian forces continue to transfer personnel and heavy military equipment from around Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka in eastern Kherson Oblast to the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline via Melitopol.

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