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ISIS’s affiliates in Libya and Pakistan gained new supporters and expanded attack zones in December 2015. ISIS’s largely dormant affiliates in Algeria and Russia’s North Caucasus region also conducted rare attacks, potentially signaling a renewal of ISIS activity in those areas. Each of these affiliate campaigns give ISIS resiliency outside of Iraq and Syria.
The tempo of Russian air operations slowed considerably from January 4 - 7. ISW was only able to confirm 17 locations of Russian airstrikes during the reporting period, the lowest volume of Russian strikes since early October 2015.
Key Takeaway: The ongoing Vienna process will likely fail to end the Syrian Civil War because it does not provide adequate incentives to Syria’s powerful armed opposition factions to lay down arms. The Vienna process relies on agreements made between international powerbrokers independent from the demands of both pro- and anti-regime Syrian factions.
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) reportedly recaptured the government complex in central Ramadi on December 28 after clearing ISIS-held areas south of the complex on December 26 and 27.
The ISF began a major operation to penetrate central Ramadi on December 22, 2015. At the time of publication 22 DEC 2015), ISW confirmed the presence of the ISF in al-Haouz, al-Dhubbat, al-Bakir, and al-Aramil neighborhoods in southern Ramadi, with possible but unconfirmed operations in al-Malab and al-Andalus neighborhoods.
Russia continues to use its air campaign in Syria to bolster the position of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad despite an ongoing political process to end the Syrian Civil War.
This map shows the potential reach of the S-400 missiles stationed in Latakia which have an effective range of up to 250 miles (400km). At 250 miles, the S-400 is able to track and target aircraft based at numerous United States and Allied Coalition airbases (including Incirlik Airbase) in the region.
This newly-updated ISIS Sanctuary Map includes changes reflecting that Sinjar was retaken by anti-ISIS Kurdish forces and also highlights new confidence in the assessment that Liwa Shuhada al-Yarmouk - a rebel faction operating in Southern Syria - constitutes an unofficial ISIS affiliate in the region.