ISW Projects Seats Won from Iraqi Elections Results

A new ISW fact sheet calculates the likely makeup of Iraq’s new parliament based on seat allocations from each province

Washington, D.C. - Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Research Director, Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, has published a two-page fact sheet that calculates the Iraqi parliamentary seats that will be likely allocated to the electoral coalitions based on the available data released from the Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC). Seats in the Iraqi Parliament are allocated province by province - not as a percentage of the national vote.

"The race is extremely tight; Maliki’s election list has a slim lead but his return as the Prime Minister is not a done deal. He still needs to form a governing coalition with at least one other large block," explained Mrs. Sullivan. "This will make for contentious negotiations."

"Former Prime Minister and secular politician, Ayad al-Allawi, is currently in second place with his Iraqiyyah list, a coalition with cross sectarian parties,” said ISW President Kimberly Kagan. "If Maliki’s rivals ally with Allawi, we could see a new governing coalition and a new Prime Minister which could dramatically reshape Iraqi politics."

Download the results: Iraq's Preliminary Elections Results by Marisa Cochrane Sullivan

Key facts from the report:

• Currently, Prime Minister Maliki's State of Law coalition is in the lead with roughly 75-82 seats.
• Ayad al-Allawi’s Iraqiyyah list is in second with 66-74 seats.
• The predominantly-Shi'a Iraqi National Alliance is in third with roughly 58-63 seats.
• Kurdistani List is in fourth with roughly 33-36 votes.

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The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization. ISW advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education. We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives. www.UnderstandingWar.org.