Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus

Russia's Quiet Conquest: Belarus

By George Barros

January 15, 2025

Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus poses strategic risks to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine.

The Kremlin is in the endgame of a decades’ long strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus — an effort which will permanently augment Russia’s military and economic capabilities to pursue its revanchist geopolitical objectives against the United States and NATO. Moscow’s effort to de facto annex Belarus through the Union State framework, while incomplete, has already achieved significant gains, requiring NATO to reevaluate the implications of Russia’s growing control over Belarus and the capabilities and resources Russia can leverage against the United States, NATO, and Ukraine as a result. Belarus is not merely a Russian-aligned ally; the Kremlin is transforming Belarus into a strategic enabler for Russia’s ability to project power globally. The Kremlin will leverage its recent but deep-rooted gains in Belarus to offset costs from Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine, accelerate Russia’s recovery following the war in Ukraine, and help Russia prepare for future wars more rapidly than Russia could by itself. Policymakers must start planning for a future in which Belarus is not only a captive nation but also effectively an extension of the Russian Federation.

The Kremlin seeks to de facto annex Belarus by formalizing the Union State as a Russian-dominated federated government that grants Moscow dominant power over most if not all aspects of Belarusian governance. This includes establishing full operational and administrative control over Belarus’ armed forces during peacetime and permanent Russian military basing in Belarus; a political union with a Kremlin-dominated federated government with a common set of federal laws and institutions for Belarusians and Russians to be governed as a single polity; and a fully integrated economy complete with common markets, free labor flows, unified laws, and a currency union. The Kremlin very likely plans to leverage Belarus’ population of 9.155 million people, Belarus’ geostrategic territory on NATO’s eastern flank, and Belarus’ economic resources in service of Russian state power.

Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus is a whole-of-government effort. This paper studies three key Russian lines of effort: The Kremlin’s efforts to integrate Russia and Belarus militarily, politically, and economically. The Kremlin’s desired suite of integration measures with Belarus is so broad and comprehensive in many respects that it is harder to determine what Moscow will not control in Belarus if Moscow succeeds than to list what Moscow will control.

Russia’s effort to de facto annex Belarus, while incomplete, is in an advanced stage and already has achieved milestones that pose security threats to the United States, NATO, and Ukraine, and an existential threat to Belarus’ continued existence as a sovereign state. Russia does not need to make any additional integration gains in Belarus to threaten the West. Russia’s existing suite of military, political, and economic integration gains in Belarus since 2020 already pose threats to the West that policymakers must consider.

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