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Recent attacks in Egypt on the one-year anniversary of the fall of Mosul indicate that ISIS’s affiliate in the Sinai may seek to target the Western military forces and the Egyptian state over the course of the next six weeks.
As we approach the one-year anniversary of ISIS’s capture of Mosul and declaration of a caliphate, it appears that the organization is more robust than ever. ISIS is expanding its operations, and exploiting state tensions across the Middle East in order to accelerate disorder and gain power.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in February 2015 that ISIS would pursue simultaneous campaigns to defend territory in Iraq and Syria, to foster affiliates in the region, and to polarize populations globally. Events from the March-May 2015 reporting period demonstrate that ISIS is now executing this multifaceted strategy.
The purpose of this intelligence summary is to document and assess the significance of open source reports regarding ISIS (the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) activity outside of Iraq and Syria (ISIS Abroad).
Kimberly Kagan is the founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a nonprofit, non-partisan organization with a unique, dual mission: provide real-time intelligence to help leaders make informed decisions in conflict zones around the world, and educate the next generation of national security leaders. ISW is globally recognized and cited for its daily analysis and maps of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.