Syria Situation Report

ISIS Expansion into Southwestern Syria Threatens Previously-Stable Zones of Regime Control as Prominent Southern Rebel Factions Claim Opposition to JN

The ISIS push into the Yarmouk refugee camp signifies ISIS intent to reclaim areas of Southern Damascus with a history of ISIS control.

JN and Rebel Forces Seize Provincial Capital in Idlib, Militia Headquarters in Dera’a: JN and rebel forces made two crucial gains against regime forces that threaten the continued viability of the regime’s Syria-wide war effort in 2015.

Merger of Prominent Islamist Groups Provides JN Opportunity to Establish Partnership:  The absorption of Suqour al-Sham into HASI counters rising JN influence in northern Syria by consolidating the combat power of major Islamist elements of the opposition. The merger does not, however, necessarily challenge JN’s military supremacy nor jeopardize its ongoing efforts to govern.

JN Designates Main Effort in Dera’a Despite Airstrike Targeting JN Leadership in Idlib: JN appears to have designated a main effort by deploying a significant convoy of military reinforcements

ISIS Forces Defeated on Multiple Fronts: Continued victories by YPG forces supported by local militias, rebel groups, and U.S.–led coalition air strikes have considerably challenged ISIS in northern Syria.

Rebel Forces Repel Regime Advance North of Aleppo: The success of rebel forces in blunting and reversing the regime offensive north of Aleppo city indicates that regime forces remain unable to decisively complete the encirclement of Aleppo without the risk of overextension.

Iran Raises its Posture in Southern Syria: IRGC Quds Force commander General Qassem Suleimani’s appearance along regime frontlines validates reports of Iranian command-and-control over the ongoing offensive in Dera’a Province.