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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2024
Click here to read the full report.
Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
September 30, 2024, 4:30pm ET
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. The IDF said that ground forces will operate to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in villages along the Israel-Lebanon border.
The Russian government plans to spend $183 billion on national security and defense in 2025 — about 41 percent of its annual expenditures. The Russian government submitted a bill on the federal budget for 2025 to 2027 to the State Duma on September 30. The bill projects federal revenues to be $433 billion in 2025 and federal expenditures to amount to $446 billion.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it.
Western countries continue to invest in the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in Beirut on September 27. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that Israel was aware of Nasrallah’s whereabouts for months and conducted the airstrike to exploit a brief window of opportunity. Unspecified Israeli officials said that Israel dropped over 80 explosive munitions on Hezbollah’s main military headquarters where Nasrallah was located.
Western officials continue to highlight efforts by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine. The Times reported on September 27 that Western officials revealed that an unspecified PRC company is sending a range of military drones to Russia for testing and eventual use by Russian forces in Ukraine. A Western official reportedly stated that the PRC company signed the agreement with Russia in 2023 and that there is "clear evidence that PRC companies are supplying Russia with deadly weapons for use in Ukraine."
The IDF is still investigating whether Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah survived the IDF strike that targeted his headquarters in Dahieh, Beirut, on September 27.
Ukrainian forces repelled a reinforced battalion-size Russian mechanized assault in the Kupyansk direction on September 26 — the first large Russian mechanized assault along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line since Winter 2024.
The Philippine Coast Guard has resumed its patrol of Sabina Shoal, fulfilling its promises to return to the disputed territory and ensure that the Shoal does not fall under PRC control. The CCG may deny the access of Philippine resupply missions to Sabina Shoal to compel the PCG to withdraw from the shoal.