Publications

Israel is Defeating Hamas, But Destroying Hamas Will Require a Post-War Vision

September 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Translating the defeat of Hamas’ brigades into the destruction of the organization will require additional Israeli or international measures to prevent Hamas from recovering. Hamas’ military and political destruction requires the articulation of a political end state and the application of the necessary means to achieve that end state. Israel officially seeks to destroy Hamas as both a political and military organization, not merely to defeat its military wing.

Iran Update, September 18, 2024

September 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 18, 2024

September 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast on September 18. Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.

Iran Update, September 17, 2024

September 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers used by Lebanese Hezbollah members across Lebanon and Syria on September 17. Lebanese officials reported that around 2,800 individuals were injured, though some reports suggest that the number is closer to 4,000, most of whom are Hezbollah members. Israel reportedly executed the attack by planting one-to-two ounces of explosive material and remote triggers inside a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers en route to Lebanon. Hezbollah had ordered the pagers to communicate across its ranks, as Hezbollah Secretary General ordered group members to limit cellphone usage in order to avoid Israeli detection. Hezbollah responded to the attack by blaming Israel and vowing to retaliate.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 17, 2024

September 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran for an unannounced visit on September 17 following recent visits to Syria and North Korea amid ongoing Russian efforts to secure military cooperation and support from non-Western allies. Shoigu met with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian during a previously unannounced visit to Tehran on September 17 and conveyed an unspecified message from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Iran Update, September 16, 2024

September 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel is refocusing its operations in the Gaza Strip to prioritize “destroying the pillars of Hamas’ civil rule . . . especially the distribution of humanitarian aid,” according to an anonymous Israeli official. The official told Israeli media that controlling aid distribution enables Hamas to project the image that it still controls the Gazan population.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2024

September 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine has taken steps to address its manpower shortages, but delays and insufficiencies in Western military aid to Ukraine continue to limit its ability to generate effective combat units that can defend critical areas and contest the theater-wide initiative.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 15, 2024

September 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia reportedly aims to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine by 2026 before likely medium- to long-term economic and force generation constraints begin to significantly degrade Russia's ability to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.

Iran Update, September 15, 2024

September 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli air defenses “partially intercepted” a Houthi ballistic missile that entered Israeli airspace on September 14. Iran, the Houthis, and the rest of the Axis of Resistance could learn lessons from the Houthi attack in order to increase the effectiveness of future attacks on Israel. Hamas conducted a relatively simple but multi-stage attack targeting Israeli forces in eastern Rafah City on September 15. Israeli forces thwarted an infiltration attempt by a group of Palestinians from the West Bank into Israel.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14, 2024

September 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian officials and sources indicated that Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has prompted the Russian authorities to increase the size of the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast by upwards of a factor of three. Ukrainian Pivnich (Northern) Operational Command Spokesperson Vadym Mysnyk stated on September 14 that Russian forces had 11,000 personnel deployed in Kursk Oblast at the start of Ukraine's incursion in early August 2024.

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