Iran Update, November 25, 2024
November 25, 2024 - ISW Press
Israel and Lebanon are expected to reach a ceasefire agreement within the next few days that would achieve stated Israeli war aims.
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Publications
Iran Update, November 24, 2024
November 24, 2024 - ISW Press
A top adviser to the Iranian supreme leader discussed Lebanon and ceasefire negotiations, nuclear policy, and a potential Iranian response to Israel’s October 25 strike. Lebanese Hezbollah is likely firing large numbers of rockets at Israel to pressure the Israeli government during ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Russia reportedly recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to fight in the Russian military amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and the Iran-backed Houthi movement.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2024
November 24, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023. Russian forces’ advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s lines. Russian forces have been making gradual, tactical advances in southeastern Ukraine since Fall 2024. Russian forces notably have not been able to restore operational maneuver seen during the initial months of Russia's full-scale invasion, and the current Russian tactical advances, although quicker now than in the months of positional warfare that characterized most of 2023 and early 2024, is still far below the Russian rate of advance in March 2022. Russian forces have succeeded in taking advantage of the seizure of Vuhledar for further offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, contrary to an incorrect previous ISW assessment that forecasted otherwise. ISW presents the following courses of action (COAs) that the Russian command may be considering given Russian forces’ recent advances.
Iran Update, November 23, 2024
November 23, 2024 - ISW Press
Iranian media reported that Iran is activating 5,000 centrifuges in response to the censure resolution that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed on November 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23, 2024
November 23, 2024 - ISW Press
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) likely attempted to cover up the recent removal of the acting commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Colonel General Gennady Anashkin following widespread accusations within the Russian information space that Anashkin's subordinates submitted false frontline progress reports to superiors.
Iran Update, November 22, 2024
November 22, 2024 - ISW Press
Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. Iran is responding to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passing a censure resolution submitted by the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) on November 21.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2024
November 22, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian military leadership continue to extol the ballistic missile that Russian forces launched at Ukraine on November 21, likely in an effort to artificially inflate expectations of Russian capabilities and encourage Western and Ukrainian self-deterrence.
The Cost of Inaction in Yemen
November 22, 2024 - ISW Press
The Houthis now pose a strategic threat with global implications for the United States and its allies.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2024
November 21, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified his reflexive control campaign aimed at Ukraine and its Western partners by conducting an ostentatious ballistic missile strike against Ukraine that used multiple reentry vehicles on November 21. Russian forces conducted a complex strike against critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises in Dnipro City, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, on the morning of November 21, that reportedly included a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missile fired from Tambov Oblast, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles fired from Volgograd Oblast, and an experimental medium-range ballistic missile with reentry vehicles – likely a modified RS-26 “Rubezh” intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) - fired from Astrakhan Oblast.
Iran Update, November 21, 2024
November 21, 2024 - ISW Press
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) censure resolution against Iran on November 21. The resolution censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the IAEA and comply with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.