Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2024

July 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

Iran Update, July 14, 2024

July 14, 2024 - ISW Press

The IDF confirmed that it killed the commander of Hamas’ Khan Younis Brigade in an airstrike targeting senior Hamas officials in the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF said that it is still assessing whether the airstrike killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif.

Iran Update, July 13, 2024

July 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah. Israeli officials confirmed that they conducted the strike based on specific intelligence collected over the prior 24 hours. The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building in which Deif and Salamah were assessed to be.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2024

July 13, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on the morning of July 13. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that its sources stated that SBU drones struck the oil depot, which stored various grades of gas and diesel fuel. Russian sources amplified footage showing the fire at an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast (156km northeast of Rostov-on-Don), and Rostov Oblast Head Vasily Golubev confirmed that a drone strike caused the fire. A Ukrainian military observer told Ukrainian media that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military logistics, including oil depots, and that Rostov Oblast is one of Russia's most important military logistics hubs.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025.

Iran Update, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas continued to promote its postwar plan for a technocratic government to jointly rule the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hamas is content with this plan because it expects to maintain a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip, thereby controlling the government or evading its rule.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

The PLA significantly increased its daily incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in July to expand the PRC’s coercive pressure on the ROC as “punishment” for the election of ROC President Lai Ching-te. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported 232 ADIZ violations by PLA aircraft in the first ten days of July, more than the totals for most months on record.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2024

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. CNN reported on July 11 that five US and Western officials stated that US intelligence uncovered a Kremlin plan in early 2024 to assassinate German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger. US intelligence reportedly informed the German government, which was able to foil the plot.

Iran Update, July 11, 2024

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

International mediators are reportedly considering using 2,500 US-trained Palestinian Authority (PA) supporters from the Gaza Strip as an interim governing force in the Gaza Strip. It remains unclear how the United States would train the Gaza Strip–based PA supporters.

Africa File, July 11, 2024: Sahelian Juntas vs. ECOWAS; US Base in Côte d’Ivoire

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The central Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established a confederation that deepens their break with West Africa’s ECOWAS and aims to strengthen their domestic and regional credibility. This split from the main West Africa political and economic bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), would undermine ECOWAS’s legitimacy by hampering regional economic and security integration and democratic development.

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