Publications

Iran Update, November 12, 2023

November 12, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces continued operating in the vicinity of al Shifa Hospital without fully isolating it on November 12. Israeli forces fought Palestinian militia fighters near the Square of the Unknown Soldier less than half a kilometer from the al Shifa Hospital complex. A Palestinian journalist reported that the al Qassem Brigades—the military wing of Hamas—ambushed Israeli forces south of the Square of the Unknown Soldier on Shuhada Street. Other Palestinian militia fighters fought Israeli forces on Omar Mukhtar Street, which bounds the square.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2023

November 12, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukraine appears to be intensifying attacks against Russian military, logistics, and other high-profile assets in rear areas in occupied Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on November 12 that Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian military headquarters in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 11, killing at least three Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Rosgvardia officers. The GUR’s November 12 announcement follows a Ukrainian partisan attack against a former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Militia head on November 8; strikes against a Russian military base in occupied Skadovsk, Kherson Oblast and Black Sea Fleet assets in Crimea on November 9; and three rear-area strikes and partisan attacks in Russia on November 11. Ukrainian forces have conducted a strike campaign specifically targeting occupied Crimea since summer 2023.

Russia’s Military Restructuring and Expansion Hindered by the Ukraine War

November 12, 2023 - ISW Press

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is pursuing three simultaneous and overlapping force generation efforts as it seeks to manage short- to medium-term requirements in Ukraine while also pursuing long-term restructuring to prepare for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov have explicitly framed Russia’s announced long-term force restructuring as increasing conventional capabilities against NATO. The Russian MoD is also creating new formations intended as reinforcements for Russia’s war in Ukraine separate from the peacetime Russian force structure, specifically the several new formations reportedly forming entirely in occupied areas of Ukraine and under the command and control of operationalized “groupings of forces” in Ukraine rather than under existing Russian military districts. The MoD appears to be undermining its long-term restructuring effort, however, by rushing some new formations - which were likely intended to form a strategic reserve or be the basis of long-term force restructuring – as rapid reinforcements to Russian forces in Ukraine. The Russian MoD’s use of ongoing force structure changes to rush newly created and understrength formations to Ukraine will likely impede the accomplishment of the parallel objective of restructuring Russian ground forces to orient on conventional warfare with NATO as the main adversary.

Iran Update, November 11, 2023

November 11, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters. The Hamas-led Gaza Strip Health Ministry director general said that there are Israeli tanks in the streets and snipers on nearby roofs. An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage taken from a building on the corner of the medical complex with audible small arms fire. The al Quds Brigades—the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed on November 11 that its fighters fought the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the vicinity of al Shifa hospital and the nearby Nasr neighborhood and al Shati refugee camp. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—said its militia fighters are engaged in clashes at ”all the pivots and points” of Israeli progress in the Gaza Strip. Local media said that al Qassem Brigades fighters previously clashed with advancing Israeli forces on the al Nasr Street northeast of al Shifa hospital on November 10. Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would help evacuate the infants from al Shifa hospital. Head of the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration said that the IDF is not shooting at the hospital or besieging the area and has left the east side of the hospital open.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11, 2023

November 11, 2023 - ISW Press

Russian forces launched a large-scale missile and drone strike series against Ukraine on the night of November 10 to 11, targeting Kyiv Oblast for the first time in 52 days. Ukrainian military sources reported on November 11 that Russian forces launched 31 Shahed 131/136 drones, two Kh-59 missiles, one Kh-31 missile, one P-800 Onyx anti-ship missile, and an S-300 missile against various targets in Ukraine, and specifically targeted Kyiv Oblast with either an Iskander-M or an S-400 missile. Ukrainian air defenses downed 19 Shaheds (primarily targeting front line areas), one Kh-59 missile, and used a Patriot air defense system to destroy the ballistic missile targeting Kyiv Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces were targeting an air defense system at the Boryspil Airport near Kyiv City. The Kyiv City Administration stated that it has been 52 days since Russian forces last launched a missile strike against Kyiv Oblast.

Iran Update, November 10, 2023

November 10, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces advanced to the al Shifa Hospital, where Israel says Hamas maintains a critical command center. The Wall Street Journal reported that the al Shifa Hospital is evacuating as Israeli forces converge on the medical compound after a series of explosions in the area. The Hamas-run Ministry of Health claims that 50,000-60,000 people are sheltering inside and around the hospital. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Army Radio reported that the medical complex is surrounded. A doctor inside the hospital said the situation is extremely dangerous.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 10, 2023

November 10, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Ukrainian surface attack drones sank two Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) small landing ships in occupied Crimea on November 10. The GUR published satellite imagery and reported that the Ukrainian surface attack drone strike on Uzka Bay near Chornomorsk, occupied Crimea sunk one Project 1176 Akula-class small landing ship and one Project 11770 Serna-class small landing ship. The GUR reported that the Serna-class ship was carrying a crew and was loaded with armored vehicles, including BTR-82 armored personnel carriers, and that Russian forces previously used Serna-class ships to provide cover for Russian BSF ships during raids when Russian forces lacked naval air-defense equipment.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, November 10, 2023

November 10, 2023 - ISW Press

The negotiations between the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) about forming a joint presidential ticket have stalled. TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je and KMT chairman Eric Chu agreed on October 30 to inter-party cooperation for the January 13 legislative elections. The parties have not agreed to a joint ticket since their initial meeting on October 31, however. Disagreement about how to determine the ticket order remains the key hurdle. Each party favors the method that would most likely ensure it heads a joint ticket. The progress the parties make during future meetings will be the basis for future assessments, as ISW previously noted. The fast-approaching November 24 candidate registration deadline will impose a practical constraint on the feasibility of implementing any selection process.

Iran Update, November 9, 2023

November 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces advanced to a Hamas security headquarters in the northwestern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that infantry, armor, engineering, and special forces units raided the security headquarters, which included intelligence and air defense headquarters. The IDF killed 50 Palestinian fighters while clearing the infrastructure, which included an underground tunnel system. The IDF published a map of the area, detailing several tunnel shafts in close proximity to each other. These clusters of tunnels could enable the hit-and-run attacks on Israeli forces that CTP-ISW has observed. An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage that Hamas published on November 8 showing militia fighters firing rocket propelled grenades (RPG) at Israeli forces in the security headquarters.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 9, 2023

November 9, 2023 - ISW Press

The Russian military command will likely struggle to redeploy combat-effective reinforcements to respond to ongoing Ukrainian operations in eastern Kherson Oblast while conducting defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and sustaining other offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine. Russian milbloggers claimed on November 9 that Ukrainian forces established control over new positions in Krynky (30km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River) and conducted assaults towards Russian positions south and southwest of the settlement. A Russian milblogger claimed that there are reports that Ukrainian forces advanced to forest areas south of Krynky. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces also attacked near Poyma (12km east of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River), Pishchanivka (13km east of Kherson City and 3km from the Dnipro River), and Pidstepne (17km east of Kherson City and 4km from the Dnipro River) and are trying to establish positions between Pidstepne and Kozachi Laheri (23km northeast of Kherson City and 2km from the Dnipro River). Ukrainian military observer Konstyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces have established continuous control of positions from the Antonivsky railway bridge north of Poyma to the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky (7km south of Kherson and 4km from the Dnipro River) as of November 9 and have cut the Oleshky-Nova Kakhovka (53km northeast of Kherson City) road in at least two areas.

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