Publications

Iran Update, February 27, 2025

February 27, 2025 - ISW Press

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi rejected a call from Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to disarm and dissolve. Ocalan, who is imprisoned in Turkey, said that “all groups must lay [down] their arms” and called on PKK leaders to hold a conference to dissolve the PKK.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 27, 2025

February 27, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials continue to reject US negotiating terms and demand that Ukraine surrender territory that Russia does not occupy. Putin stated in his February 27 address to the Federal Security Service (FSB) board that Russia will continue to strengthen FSB operations in Donbas and "Novorossiya."

Africa File, February 27, 2025: SAF Advances West Toward Darfur; M23 and DRC Reset as International Pressure Grows on Rwanda; ISSP Poses Clear Transnational Threat; al Shabaab Central Somalia Offensive

February 27, 2025 - ISW Press

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are advancing in south-central Sudan and setting conditions for an offensive into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur. The SAF captured el Obeid—a state capital in south-central Sudan that will likely support SAF offensives into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur—on February 20.

Putin Deepens Russia's Ties with US Adversaries as US-Russia Talks Begin

February 27, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia's outreach to American adversaries continues despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts at rapprochement with the Trump administration. Putin spoke with People’s Republic of China (PRC) President Xi Jinping on February 24, the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Iran Update, February 26, 2025

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

 Iran increased its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium by 92.5 kilograms (kg), or 2.2 significant quantities, according to an unreleased International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 26, 2025

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are planning to meet at the White House on February 28, likely to sign a US-Ukraine mineral deal. A draft agreement of the deal published ahead of the meeting does not provide US security assistance or security guarantees to Ukraine, however.

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

February 26, 2025 - ISW Press

The withdrawal of US forces from Syria would risk reversing hard-earned gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). ISIS is not destroyed.  It is kept in check by the combined pressure of US forces in Iraq and Syria and their Kurdish allies. The withdrawal of US forces will remove that pressure and allow ISIS to reconstitute, likely rapidly, to dangerous levels.

Iran Update, February 25, 2025

February 25, 2025 - ISW Press

The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions. It is very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States by June 2025, given that such a deal would require Iran to completely change its current policy on negotiations.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 25, 2025

February 25, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information operation that aims to destabilize Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian military from within.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24, 2025

February 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has not been defeated or destroyed but remains resilient and innovative in the face of this unjustified Russian aggression. Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in a failed attempt to seize Kyiv City, overthrow Ukraine's democratically elected government, and forcibly install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. Ukrainian forces, supported by a coalition of allies including the United States and European partners, have since successfully pushed Russian forces out of northern Ukraine and liberated significant territory in southern and northeastern Ukraine.

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