Publications

Iran Update, August 24, 2024

August 24, 2024 - ISW Press

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on August 24 to “listen to the results of the negotiations” between US, Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari mediators. Senior Hamas political official Izzat al Rishq announced that a Hamas delegation led by head negotiator Khalil al Hayya will travel to Cairo on August 24. Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi said that the Hamas delegation is not going to Cairo to negotiate but instead will “listen closely” to the mediators.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 23, 2024

August 23, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance near Sudzha amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast on August 23. Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.

 

Iran Update, August 23, 2024

August 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The factors seemingly driving Iran to delay its direct attack on Israel are temporary. These factors will disappear with time, which would increase the likelihood of an Iranian attack on Israel. 

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 23, 2024

August 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The PRC carried out a 30-hour patrol of the Taiwan Strait after its summer fishing moratorium ended. The increase in maritime traffic in the Taiwan Strait risks accidents and other incidents involving PRC and ROC vessels, which the PRC may use as a pretext to expand the scope of its law enforcement activities against Taiwan.

Iran Update, August 22, 2024

August 22, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian interest in the progress of Gaza Strip ceasefire-hostage negotiations suggests that elements of the Iranian regime are likely delaying a retaliatory strike on Israel until ceasefire talks conclude. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reported that newly appointed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to meet Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani in Tehran "in the coming days." Thani kept Iranian officials apprised of negotiation progress during the August 15-16 ceasefire talks. 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 22, 2024

August 22, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast, possibly in an effort to stabilize the lines and improve command and control (C2) over Russian conscripts. A Crimean occupation official, who had volunteered to fight as part of the Russian 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division), claimed on August 19 that his platoon redeployed from the Robotyne and Verbove area in western Zaporizhia Oblast to “defend” Kursk Oblast.

Africa File, August 22, 2024: “AUSSOM” New AU Mission in Somalia; Burkina Faso Reaches Boiling Point

August 22, 2024 - ISW Press

The African Union (AU) and UN are advancing plans for an AU-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia after the current AU mission expires, at the end of 2024.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 21, 2024

August 21, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin appears to have launched an intricate messaging campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is prioritizing maintaining the initiative in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.

Iran Update, August 21, 2024

August 21, 2024 - ISW Press

The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN suggested on August 20 that Iran’s Axis of Resistance could conduct a ground attack into Israel in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.

Exploring a PRC Short-of-War Coercion Campaign to Seize Taiwan’s Kinmen Islands and Possible Responses

August 21, 2024 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China began aggressively challenging Taiwan’s jurisdiction over its outlying islands, especially Kinmen, in February 2024. Repeated Chinese Coast Guard incursions in Taiwan-controlled waters around Kinmen aim to normalize the PRC’s "law enforcement" jurisdiction in the area.

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