Iran Update, August 24, 2024

 

Iran Update, August 24, 2024

Kelly Campa, Annika Ganzeveld, Siddhant Kishore, Ria Reddy, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on August 24 to “listen to the results of the negotiations” between US, Egyptian, Israeli and Qatari mediators.[1] Senior Hamas political official Izzat al Rishq announced that a Hamas delegation led by head negotiator Khalil al Hayya will travel to Cairo on August 24.[2] Hamas official Mahmoud Mardawi said that the Hamas delegation is not going to Cairo to negotiate but instead will “listen closely” to the mediators.[3] Two Egyptian security sources told Reuters that the Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo to be close to the negotiations and review the proposals.[4] CIA Director William Burns, senior Biden administration adviser Brett McGurk, Mossad director David Barnea, Egyptian General Intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani are also expected to attend the talks in Cairo.[5] US President Joe Biden spoke with al Thani on August 23 and discussed the urgency of concluding the deal under the current US bridging proposal.[6]

Israeli officials said on August 23 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to withdraw Israeli forces from a one-to two-kilometer section of the Philadelphi Corridor during the first phase of the proposed ceasefire-hostage deal.[7] Three anonymous Israeli officials told Axios that President Biden asked Netanyahu to agree to withdraw Israeli forces from the Philadelphi Corridor during the first phase of the deal in their call on August 21.[8] Netanyahu’s insistence on an Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, which his office has said is required for achieving Israel’s war objectives, has been one of the most significant sticking points of the negotiations.[9] Israeli officials said that Netanyahu “partially” heeded Biden’s request and agreed to withdraw the IDF from a one-to two-kilometer section of the Philadelphi Corridor adjacent to Tal al Sultan neighborhood.[10] A Netanyahu aide said that Netanyahu only agreed to change one IDF position by “a few hundred meters,” which the aide said would not impact the IDF’s operational control of the corridor.[11] Netanyahu’s “partial” concession allowed the United States to support Israel’s position that Israeli forces remain along most of the corridor during the first phase.[12] Egypt reportedly agreed to deliver updated maps reflecting this change to Hamas.[13] Egypt has maintained its firm refusal of any Israeli presence on the Philadelphi Corridor.[14]

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown Jr. began an “unannounced visit” to the Middle East on August 24.[15] Reuters reported that General Charles Brown Jr. arrived in Jordan on August 24 and will also travel to Egypt and Israel during his visit to “hear the perspectives of military leaders.”[16] General Brown is expected to discuss US perspectives on a regional war between Israel and Iran’s Axis of Resistance as well as further US efforts to strengthen deterrence in the region.

Newly appointed Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated on August 24 that Iran will retaliate against Israel for killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.[17] Araghchi told reporters that Iran will “respond to Israeli crimes” and prevent Israel from “expanding the war in the region.”[18] Araghchi added that the Foreign Affairs Ministry is in “complete coordination” with the Iranian armed forces. Araghchi separately discussed his recent phone calls with his French, German, and UK counterparts and stated that Iran will respond to Israel at the “right time and in the right way."[19]

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated outlet Tasnim News Agency claimed on August 24 that the April 2024 Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel demonstrated Israel’s inability to counter a multifront attack from Iran and its Axis of Resistance.[20] Tasnim News Agency claimed that a “massive” attack by Iran and its Axis of Resistance on Israel would “paralyze” Israeli and partner air defense systems. Tasnim News Agency further claimed that Israel lacks the manpower and military equipment to defend against such an attack. The article also described the April 2024 attack as a “warning operation.”

Key Takeaways:

• Hostage-ceasefire negotiations: Hamas sent a delegation to Cairo for further ceasefire-hostage consultations. Israel agreed to withdraw forces from part of the Philadelphi Corridor during the first phase of the proposed deal.
• Iran: The newly appointed Iranian foreign affairs minister reiterated that Iran will retaliate for Israel killing Ismail Haniyeh and other senior Axis of Resistance leaders. IRGC-affiliated media claimed that Israel could not counter a multi-front attack by Iran and the Axis of Resistance.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF Air Force targeted and killed a Hamas weapons production specialist in the Gaza Strip on August 24.[21] The IDF killed Taha Abu Nada, a Hamas fighter who developed military equipment and other manufacturing infrastructure that Hamas used for weapons to attack Israeli forces and Israeli territory.[22] CTP-ISW assessed in June 2024 that Hamas is rebuilding its weapons production capacity in the Gaza Strip as part of a larger effort to reconstitute its military forces.[23] The IDF has attempted to disrupt Hamas’ reconstitution efforts by targeting relevant Hamas officials.

The IDF 252nd Division began an operation to destroy militia infrastructure in southern Gaza City, near the Netzarim Corridor, on August 23.[24] Israeli forces killed several Palestinian fighters and destroyed militia infrastructure in the area.[25] Hamas fighters detonated explosives targeting an IDF unit in a pre-rigged house southeast of Zaytoun.[26] The IDF said that an improvised explosive device (IED) planted on the outer wall of a building in Zaytoun killed a reserve soldier in its 16th Brigade’s 6310th Battalion and injured seven others.[27] The IDF believes that Hamas fighters used a nearby camera to surveil Israeli forces and time the detonation.[28] Hamas fighters also fired rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting Israeli armor advancing north into Gaza City.[29]

Four Palestinian militias mortared Israeli forces around the Netzarim Corridor on August 24.[30]

The IDF 7th Brigade (98th Division) continued clearing operations on the outskirts of Deir al Balah on August 24.[31] The 7th Brigade killed dozens of Palestinian fighters and destroyed militia infrastructure. The 82nd Battalion and Yahalom Combat Engineering Unit identified and demolished a 500-meter-long Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) tunnel in the area.[32] The 77th Battalion located weapons and equipment, including grenades and tactical vests.[33] Israeli forces also located a rocket launcher prepped to fire.[34] Three Palestinian militias confronted Israeli forces operating east of Deir al Balah city with mortars and RPGs.[35] Hamas fighters targeted IDF engineering units by detonating IEDs planted in underground tunnels and detonated pre-planted mines targeting IDF engineering equipment and vehicles.[36]

The IDF issued evacuation orders for east of Deir al Balah and al Maghazi on August 24.[37] The evacuation orders include al Musaddar and areas northeast of al Maghazi refugee camp.[38] A Palestinian journalist reported that 100,000 Palestinians have been displaced from east of Deir al Balah over the past two days.[39]

The IDF 98th Division continued clearing operations in Khan Younis on August 24.[40] The IDF Air Force and the 98th Division conducted airstrikes targeting Palestinian fighters near Israeli forces and destroyed a weapons depot in the area.[41] A local Palestinian source reported that Israeli forces ”partially” withdrew from Hamad neighborhood, where the IDF 35th Paratroopers Brigade had been since August 17.[42] Palestinian sources reported that the IDF is still advancing into areas east of the city and said that Israeli forces were present in central Bani Suheila on August 24.[43]

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations in Tal al Sultan, Rafah, on August 24.[44] Israeli forces have killed dozens of Palestinian fighters in close quarters combat and with airstrikes in Tal al Sultan since August 23.[45] The IDF 401st Brigade located a large quantity of weapons in the area, including mortar shells, IEDs, and other unspecified explosives.[46]

The IDF issued evacuation orders for the northern Gaza Strip on August 23 following rocket fire from the area.[47] The IDF detected two rockets launched from the northern Gaza Strip targeting Sderot on August 23. PIJ claimed rocket attacks targeting several towns north of the Gaza Strip.[48] The IDF intercepted one rocket over Sderot and a second rocket fell in an open area.[49] Shortly after, the IDF issued evacuation orders for the Atatra, as Salateen, al Kura’a Khamsa, and Ghaboon areas and told residents to evacuate immediately to the ”known shelters” west of Gaza City as the IDF would “act forcefully“ against militias in the area.[50] A Palestinian journalist reported that the IDF conducted artillery shelling on targets in the area and killed five Palestinians.[51]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Unidentified Palestinian fighters detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) during an IDF operation in Avnei Hefetz settlement in northern West Bank on August 24.[52] The IDF cordoned off the area where the explosion occurred to find the suspect who planted and detonated the IED. The IDF is also conducting additional searches for IEDs around the settlement. The IDF reported no casualties from the IED explosion.[53]

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in Qalqilya city in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 23.[54] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades fired small arms and detonated IEDs targeting Israeli forces.[55]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 13 attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on August 23.[56] Hezbollah launched Katyusha rockets targeting Kiryat Shmona in northern Israel.[57] The Israeli Army Radio reported that the Iron Dome detected 15 launches and intercepted most of them, some rockets struck civilian sites in Kiryat Shmona however.[58]

Iran and Axis of Resistance

US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed a Houthi missile system in a Houthi-controlled territory of Yemen on August 23.[59] CENTCOM determined that the Houthi missile system posed an imminent threat to US and coalition forces and merchant vessels in the region.

[1] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53084 ; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-negotiators-cairo-gaza-conditions-worsen-under-israeli-campaign-2024-08-24/

[2] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53084

[3] https://t.me/hamaswestbank/53087

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-negotiators-cairo-gaza-conditions-worsen-under-israeli-campaign-2024-08-24/

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/24/israel-gaza-hamas-ceasefire-negotiations; https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1827329668438966565

[6] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/23/readout-of-president-bidens-call-with-sheikh-tamim-bin-hamad-al-thani-of-qatar/

[7] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt

[8] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt; https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/21/politics/biden-netanyahu-call-gaza-ceasefire/index.html

[9] https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/23/politics/gaza-ceasefire-israel-right-resume-fighting/index.html

[10] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt

[11] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-dispute-with-israeli-negotiators-over-ceasefire-conditions-source-says-2024-08-24/

[12] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt

[13] https://www.axios.com/2024/08/23/biden-netanyahu-israeli-forces-withdraw-gaza-egypt

[14] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-22-2024; https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/23/united-states-gaza-ceasefire-israel-hamas-hostages/

[15] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-us-general-makes-unannounced-middle-east-trip-iran-threat-looms-2024-08-24/

[16] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-us-general-makes-unannounced-middle-east-trip-iran-threat-looms-2024-08-24/

[17] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/03/3147193

[18] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/03/3147193

[19] https://t dot co/lqhhKg801F

[20] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1403/06/03/3147250

[21] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238469711671486

[22] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238469711671486; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238480935559199

[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-24-2024

[24] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238480935559199

[25] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238480935559199

[26] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2989

[27] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1827006860882244010

[28] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1827006860882244010

[29] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2989

[30] https://t.me/nedalps/4371;

https://t.me/abualiajel/334;

https://t.me/alwya2000/6706

[31] www dot idf.il/225551

[32] www dot idf.il/225551

[33] www dot idf.il/225551

[34] www dot idf.il/225551

[35] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7201; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2993 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2995

[36] https://t.me/qassambrigades/31675 ; https://t.me/qassam1brigades/2994

[37] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1827292746140299572

[38] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1827292746140299572

[39] https://t.me/hamza20300/285917

[40] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238487642329453

[41] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238487642329453

[42] https://t.me/hamza20300/285937; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-18-2024

[43] https://t.me/hamza20300/285937; https://t.me/hamza20300/285897; https://t.me/hamza20300/285888

[44] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238484441981278

[45] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238484441981278

[46] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827238484441981278

[47] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1827008641142051224; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1827011213772951906

[48] https://t.me/sarayaps/18502

[49] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827001837704101997

[50] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1827008641142051224

[51] https://t.me/hamza20300/285780

[52] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827319501597339961

[53] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1827319501597339961

[54] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7205

[55] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7205

[56] https://t.me/mmirleb/6361 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6363 ; ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6367 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6369 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6371; https://t.me/mmirleb/6373; https://t.me/mmirleb/6375 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6377 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6379 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6381 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6383 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6385 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6387

[57] https://t.me/mmirleb/6363

[58] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1827031546974630344 ; https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1827069869361181043 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13056

[59] https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1827058049267462308