Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2024

June 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.

Iran Update, June 30, 2024

June 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli forces continued re-clearing Shujaiya in Gaza City. Hamas combat units began reconstituting there after Israeli forces withdrew in April 2024. Israeli forces conducted a drone strike killing a senior PIJ official in Tulkarm. The official was responsible for recent militia activity targeting civilian and military targets. Lebanese Hezbollah conducted 10 attacks into northern Israel. One of the attacks involved a one-way attack drone that injured nine Israelis.

Iran Update, June 29, 2024

June 29, 2024 - ISW Press

No candidate received the majority of votes needed to win the Iranian presidential election on June 28. Iran will hold a runoff election between the two most popular candidates—ultraconservative Saeed Jalili and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian—on July 5. Jalili will likely win the runoff vote and become the next Iranian president. The Iranian regime reported that Pezeshkian received the most votes at around 10.4 million, while Jalili received around 9.5 million. Jalili will likely receive significantly more votes in the runoff election since there will be no other hardline candidates splitting the hardline vote.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024

June 29, 2024 - ISW Press

Two prominent Russian officials appear to be spearheading divergent paths for addressing religious extremism in Russia as ethnic and religious tension in Russia continues to rise. Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin commented on the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan and claimed on June 29 that Islamic terrorists were "able to carry their banner of Islamic terror" into Russia and that the State Duma must respond to the threat of Islamic terrorists in Russia.

Iran Update, June 28, 2024

June 28, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran held its presidential election on June 28. Iran will likely have to hold a runoff election on July 5 given that neither of the two hardline frontrunners—Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Saeed Jalili—withdrew from the election before the first round of voting.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024

June 28, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin directed on June 28 the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles following the American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor.

Iran Update, June 27, 2024

June 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah are concerned that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias could escalate the war with Israel too far, according to Saudi media. The Saudi outlet, citing unspecified sources, reported that the Iraqi militias are developing plans to support Hezbollah if Israel launches a major military offensive into Lebanon.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 27, 2024

June 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces have sustained the tempo of their offensive operations in the Toretsk direction since activating in the area on June 18 and likely aim to reduce a Ukrainian salient in the area, but there is little current likelihood of rapid Russian gains near Toretsk. Russian forces have committed only limited forces to this operation so far, which suggests that Russian forces continue to prioritize gradual advances through consistent grinding assaults over operationally significant gains through rapid maneuver.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, June 27, 2024

June 27, 2024 - ISW Press

The PRC has carried out violations of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) more frequently since President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration on May 20.

Africa File, June 27, 2024: Niger Reallocates Uranium Mine; IS Strengthens in the Sahel; AU Future in Somalia

June 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Niger revoked the operating permit of a French state-owned mining company for a uranium mine in northern Niger. Russia seeks to take over the mine. The Kremlin has a continent-wide strategy to dominate the nuclear energy market to boost the Russian economy and increase leverage over countries that aim to cut Russian energy purchases. The Nigerien junta is likely seeking to gain military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security.

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