Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17, 2024
June 17, 2024 - ISW Press
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO's nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.
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Publications
Iran Update, June 17, 2024
June 17, 2024 - ISW Press
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on June 17 that it has dismantled about half of Hamas’ forces in Rafah. The IDF 162nd Division advanced into Rafah on May 7 and the IDF said that it now controls approximately 60 to 70 percent of the governorate, including the Egypt-Gaza Strip border.
Iran Update, June 16, 2024
June 16, 2024 - ISW Press
The IDF announced on June 16 it has begun executing a daily 11-hour “tactical pause” along a route east of Rafah to increase humanitarian aid delivery into the southern Gaza Strip. The IDF stated that it decided to suspend military activities daily between 0800 and 1900 local time along an approximately 10.5 kilometer route that leads from the Kerem Shalom crossing along Salah ad Din Road to al Fukhkhari, south of Khan Younis. The IDF stated that there will be no changes to how humanitarian aid enters the Gaza Strip.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16, 2024
June 16, 2024 - ISW Press
The vast majority of the countries and international organizations that participated in the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16 signed a joint communique on June 16 reaffirming support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The communique also reaffirmed support for Ukrainian operation and control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to ensure the safety of nuclear energy and installations, "free full, and safe" commercial navigation in the Black Sea to ensure global food security, the exchange of all prisoners of war (POWs), and the return of all "deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children" and other unlawfully detained Ukrainian civilians.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15, 2024
June 15, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 14 information operation about Russia's supposed “willingness to negotiate” on extreme terms tantamount to Ukraine's capitulation is succeeding in confusing the purpose of the Ukrainian-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15. The purpose of the summit, according to the Ukrainian President's Office, was to facilitate a multilateral dialogue to achieve "fair peace ... based on the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law." Putin's information operation on June 14 sought to and partially succeeded in sabotaging the summit by refocusing the international conversation to Russia's absence at the summit, instead of allowing the summit's participants to proceed with the intended purpose of garnering international support for Ukraine and Ukraine's efforts to involve the broader international community in ending the war.
Iran Update, June 15, 2024
June 15, 2024 - ISW Press
Unidentified Palestinian fighters conducted an IED attack targeting the IDF 401st Armored Brigade in Tel al Sultan on June 15, killing eight IDF soldiers. The IED attack struck an IDF Namer armored combat engineering vehicle (CEV), damaging the vehicle and killing the occupants.
Iran Update, June 14, 2024
June 14, 2024 - ISW Press
The IDF 162nd Division continued to operate in Rafah on June 14. The Nahal Brigade identified openings between buildings in Rafah that Hamas fighters use to traverse quickly through dense neighborhoods.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2024
June 14, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s capitulation as a prerequisite for "peace" negotiations in Ukraine, including the recognition of Russia’s illegal annexation of occupied and Ukrainian-controlled territory in eastern and southern Ukraine, in an attempt to undermine the June 15-16 Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
Why Putin Remains Uninterested in Meaningful Negotiations with Ukraine
June 14, 2024 - ISW Press
The Kremlin routinely feigns interest in meaningful negotiations as part of a longstanding information operation that aims to persuade the West to make concessions on Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty. The Kremlin will continue to feign interest in negotiations at critical moments in the war to influence Western decision-making on support for Ukraine and to continue efforts to extract preemptive concessions from the West.
Iran Update, June 13, 2024
June 13, 2024 - ISW Press
Hamas is requiring Israel to meet its maximalist demands sooner than stipulated in the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. Hamas has seemingly not shortened the timeline on which it would release Israeli hostages, however. Hamas issued new demands on June 11 in response to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the new demands as going beyond Hamas’ previous negotiating position and questioned whether Hamas is acting in good faith in the talks. The new demands involve Israel committing immediately to a permanent ceasefire, accelerating the timeline for reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, and making greater concessions on the release of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas also reportedly requested that Israeli forces withdraw sooner from the Gaza Strip. These changes would help Hamas secure most of its maximalist demands in the first phase of the proposed ceasefire deal and dilutes the second and third phases.