Publications

Africa File, November 7, 2024: Niamey Threatened; Boko Haram Fallout in Chad; M23 Marches on Eastern DRC; Somalia-Jubbaland Tensions

November 7, 2024 - ISW Press

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM attacked a military checkpoint in the Niamey suburbs, signaling its ability to attack the Nigerien capital roughly one month after it launched its first attack on the Malian capital in a decade. A major attack on Niamey would likely undermine the Nigerien junta’s legitimacy and support base, which could cause the junta to turn to external backers like Iran and Russia for additional military assistance.

Iran Update, November 6, 2024

November 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem claimed that Hezbollah would outlast Israel in a “war of attrition” in a speech on November 6

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 6, 2024

November 6, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian naval base in Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan for the first time on November 6 damaging several missile ships of the Russia Caspian Sea Flotilla.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, November 6, 2024

November 6, 2024 - ISW Press

The PRC’s hosting of the 5th Cross-strait Media Summit in Beijing from October 31 to November 1 contributes to its efforts to cultivate a favorable information landscape in Taiwan.

Iran Update, November 5, 2024

November 5, 2024 - ISW Press

Fatah is attempting to extend its control over the Gaza Strip after the October 7 War, but Fatah’s lack of pro-Fatah Palestinian Authority (PA)-affiliated military forces in the Gaza Strip will make this extremely difficult. Fatah and Hamas have met in Cairo for the past several days to discuss post-war governance in the Gaza Strip and reportedly agreed in principle to form an administrative committee to manage civil affairs, including humanitarian aid.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2024

November 5, 2024 - ISW Press

The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated in an interview with South Korean national broadcaster KBS on November 5 that Ukrainian forces engaged in "small-scale" clashes with North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast but emphasized that it will take more time for the entire contingent of North Korean forces to deploy to Kursk Oblast and enter combat.

Iran Update, November 4, 2024

November 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran reportedly warned some Arab countries that it will conduct a complex attack on Israel in retaliation for the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) strikes on Iran. Unspecified Arab and Iranian officials told the Wall Street Journal that the upcoming Iranian attack will include drones and missiles and that some will have heavier payloads than those which Iran has previously fired at Israel.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2024

November 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian and pro-Kremlin actors launched an information operation on November 4 to discredit incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s victory in the Moldovan presidential elections. The Moldovan Central Election Commission (CEC) confirmed on November 4 that Sandu won 55.35 percent of the vote, defeating Kremlin-friendly opponent Alexandr Stoianoglo.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2024

November 3, 2024 - ISW Press

Incumbent Moldova President Maia Sandu has claimed victory in the Moldovan presidential runoff election held on November 3, 2024

Iran Update, November 3, 2024

November 3, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israeli Defense Minister emphasized that Iran is “pouring everything [it] can” into the West Bank, indicating that Iran will very likely attempt to pursue a different strategy when rebuilding Palestinian militias to fight Israel again.

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