Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 17, 2024

August 17, 2024 - ISW Press

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast and Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine are not in themselves decisive military operations that will win the war. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces lack the capability to conduct individual decisive war-winning operations and must instead conduct multiple successive operations with limited operational objectives that are far short of victory, but that in aggregate can achieve strategic objectives. It is too early to assess the outcomes and operational significance of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia and the ongoing Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine.

Iran Update, August 17, 2024

August 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas has rejected optimism from US and international mediators that a ceasefire-hostage agreement is close to being reached.

Iran Update, August 16, 2024

August 16, 2024 - ISW Press

The United States and foreign mediators seem to be attempting to delay or indefinitely postpone an Iranian and Hezbollah attack targeting Israel by both threatening Iran and presenting a potential ceasefire-hostage agreement as an off-ramp from further regional escalation. 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 16, 2024

August 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued to marginally advance southeast of Sudzha on August 16 amid continued Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 16, 2024

August 16, 2024 - ISW Press

The PRC released four members of a Taiwanese fishing boat on August 13, whom it detained near Kinmen on July 2. The crew’s release does not indicate a change in the PRC’s long-term coercion campaign against Taiwan, however.

Iran Update, August 15, 2024

August 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran is likely trying to build operational surprise ahead of its expected attack on Israel. CTP-ISW continues to assess that the most likely course of action is that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will conduct a coordinated drone and missile attack on Israel.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 15, 2024

August 15, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian officials are taking steps to consolidate and coordinate the management of ongoing Ukrainian operations in Kursk Oblast while continuing to highlight Ukrainian advances. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued advancing in some areas in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations in the area. Russian forces are maintaining their relatively high offensive tempo in Donetsk Oblast, demonstrating that the Russian military command continues to prioritize advances in eastern Ukraine even as Ukraine is pressuring Russian forces within Kursk Oblast.

Iran Update, August 14, 2024

August 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei indicated that he still believes Iran must respond to Israeli operations targeting senior Axis of Resistance leaders in recent weeks, despite back-channel threats from the United States emphasizing that Israel would respond forcefully to an attack that kills Israeli civilians or causes significant damage.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14, 2024

August 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces marginally advanced in Kursk Oblast amid a generally slower tempo of Ukrainian operations as Russian forces continue attempts to stabilize the frontline in the area. 

Putin Is Vulnerable: Western Policy Masks Russian Weakness

August 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia has vulnerabilities that the West has simply not been exploiting. On the contrary, US incrementalism has helped the Kremlin offset and mask its weaknesses. The Kremlin’s weaknesses include its inability to rapidly pivot, dependence on others for Russia’s capability to sustain the war, and years of risk accumulation that Russian President Vladimir Putin is yet to reckon with. The Kremlin is vulnerable to an adversary who can generate momentum against Russia and deny the Kremlin opportunities to regroup and adapt. A serious US strategy on Ukraine would prioritize achieving such momentum.

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