Publications

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin-linked Belarusian Opposition Leadership Threaten to Further Fragment Opposition Unity

September 1, 2020 - ISW Press

5:30 EDT: Kremlin media is overtly discussing Russia’s absorption of Belarus. Kremlin-run wire service RIA Novosti argued Belarusians and Russians are “one people with two states” and that “two states of one people are always a temporary phenomenon” on September 1 – implying the inevitable incorporation of Belarus and Russia. The Kremlin used similar talking points to justify Russia’s intervention in Ukraine in 2014.

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Likely Contriving Amenable Government Structure in Belarus

December 28, 2020 - Savannah Modesitt

An independent Russian media outlet published documents allegedly detailing Kremlin plans to cement control over Belarus through constitutional changes and a Kremlin-amenable political party in Belarus. Independent Russian news outlet “The Insider” published several documents allegedly from internal Kremlin discussions on December 25 outlining Kremlin plans to maximize Russian influence over the Belarusian government through shaping constitutional amendments and restructuring. Among the documents are a framework for gaining political and social influence in Belarus, a speech by Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) General Vladimir Chernov seemingly to Kremlin officials on an unknown occasion outlining the role of Kremlin-amenable Belarusian politicians in constitutional reform, a list of Belarusian “assets,” and the foundational document for a new Kremlin-run political party in Belarus.

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Information Operations Intensify Condition Setting for Intervention in Belarus

August 31, 2020 - ISW Press

6:00 EDT: The Belarusian opposition is developing a new weekly protest rhythm. No significant protests occurred in Belarus on August 31. The size of weekday protests has decreased over the last two weeks from regular nationwide protests with hundreds of participants to scattered protests primarily in Minsk with dozens of participants. Belarusian President Lukashenko’s renewed crackdown and detention campaign since August 26 and the inability of protesters to sustain missing work has likely deterred protesters. The opposition will likely primarily use weekdays to plan and prepare for large Sunday protests.

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Enables Lukashenko to Resume Crackdown in Belarus as Protest Movement Pauses

August 20, 2020 - ISW Press

11:00 am EDT: Russia’s intervention in Belarus likely deterred protesters on August 19. The threat of a Russian intervention to support Lukashenko, which ISW reported on August 19 and forecasted on August 14, likely deterred protesters on August 19 and 20. Belarusian security forces additionally deployed in force on August 19 for the first time since August 13 following instructions from Lukashenko to “crush” the protests. Belarusian security forces deployed around key buildings in Minsk and cleared opposition protests in several cities around Belarus – with protesters quickly withdrawing without a fight.

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Begins Security Forces Support for Lukashenko Following Regional Security Service Defection

August 19, 2020 - ISW Press

11:00 am EDT: A Kremlin security force intervention into Belarus on behalf of President Alexander Lukashenko is reportedly underway following the defection of Belarusian Interior Ministry elements in Grodno, which is near the Polish and Lithuanian borders. German newspaper Bild reported on August 19 that the Kremlin began using Russian Air Force and Ministry of Internal Affairs trucks to send Russian National Guardsmen to Belarus. Lukashenko had apparently lacked a clear strategy to deal with protests and was losing control over the situation as of August 18. Lukashenko’s spokesperson Natalya Eismont confirmed on Russia’s Channel 1 state television that Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin began consultations to coordinate actions under the Union State and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) frameworks on August 19. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said "there is foreign interference in Belarusian internal affairs" on Channel 1 on August 19. "Foreign interference" is a legal ground for a military assistance according to CSTO agreements. Kremlin media outlet RT claimed the Kremlin denied seeing a need to send assistance to Belarus on August 19.

Belarus Warning Update: Kremlin Announces Reserve Force is Prepared to Intervene in Belarus

August 27, 2020 - ISW Press

12:30 pm EDT: The Kremlin announced it has created a reserve force to intervene in Belarus if necessary. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview to the state-run Russia 1 TV channel on August 27. Putin stated the Kremlin has prepared a “reserve of law enforcement officers” but will not deploy it to Belarus unless the situation “gets out of control.” The Kremlin previously pledged it would intervene in Belarus in response to foreign intervention on August 15 and has claimed foreign intervention is ongoing since August 19. Putin’s statement is the first Kremlin acknowledgment of preparations to intervene in Belarus. The Kremlin has supported Lukashenko with RT technical personnel, information support, and potentially covert security coordination since August 19. ISW has previously assessed the Kremlin is prepared to intervene in Belarus to support Lukashenko if he is unable to control protests.

Belarus Warning Update: Forced Integration with Russia—Not the Protest Movement—Is Lukashenko’s Biggest Threat

February 19, 2021 - George Barros

2:00 pm EDT: The Kremlin’s ongoing campaign to increase Russian control over Belarus poses a larger risk to self-declared Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko than the diminishing Belarusian protest movement in 2021. Lukashenko presented a new strategy to end the crisis in Belarus on February 11-12; he announced plans for a referendum on a new constitution in 2022 and promised economic incentives to placate protesters. Lukashenko seeks to both balance against Kremlin pressure to integrate Belarus into Russian-dominated structures and defuse protester sentiment over the next several years. Lukashenko will likely avoid police crackdowns and instead seek to deescalate protests through the promise of minor concessions without fundamentally relinquishing his dictatorship. The Kremlin will likely intensify pressure against Lukashenko in 2021 to formalize Belarus’ integration into the Union State before Lukashenko can defuse the protests with his promised concessions.

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Security Forces Likely Kidnap Opposition Leader Kolesnikova

September 7, 2020 - Mason Clark

Unidentified men abducted opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova and two of her staffers in Minsk on September 7. An unidentified group of masked men in civilian clothes abducted Kolesnikova and two of her staffers, Anton Rodnenkov and Ivan Kravtsov, using an unmarked van in downtown Minsk the morning of September 7. The whereabouts of Kolesnikova and her staffers is currently unknown. Kolesnikova is a key member of the opposition Coordination Council and the last remaining Belarusian opposition leader active in-country.

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Security Forces Escalate Violence against Protesters but Large Protests Continue

September 6, 2020 - ISW Press

5:00 pm EDT: Belarusian Interior Ministry personnel without insignia, possibly including Russians, seriously beat and detained protesters in Minsk on September 6. Around 15 men in civilian clothes carrying batons and body armor beat and detained protesters in Minsk at approximately 7:00 pm local time, after most protesters had begun to disperse. The men, who bore no insignia, pursued protesters into a nearby café, later bringing the detained protesters to liveried police vehicles. The men used significantly more violence than Belarusian security forces have since the first week of the protests, continuing to beat already unconscious protesters.

Belarus Warning Update: Belarusian Protest Movement Likely Developing Local Organization

September 27, 2020 - ISW Press

5:00 pm EDT: Belarusians marched in Minsk for the eighth straight Sunday on September 27, despite a lack of clear directions from prominent opposition leaders. Telegram channel NEXTA called for a “peoples inauguration” of opposition leader Svetlana Tikanouskaya in response to self-proclaimed Belarusian President Lukashenko’s secret inauguration ceremony on September 23. Tikanouskaya congratulated Belarusians on the 50th consecutive day of protests on September 27 without mentioning an inauguration. NEXTA’s calls did not result in any special protester action. Tikanouskaya likely intends to maintain influence with the ongoing NEXTA-led protest movement without tying herself to specific actions outside her control. Control of the Belarusian opposition remains split between NEXTA’s focus on active protests and Tikanouskaya’s promotion of international diplomatic efforts, undermining the focus of the protest movement.

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