ISW's Nataliya Bugayova and Kateryna Stepanenko examine how Russia uses cognitive warfare against the United States.

The Sino-Russian relationship is closer and more interconnected in 2025 than it has ever been.


Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine.

Some peace deals lead to peace, others to more war. The Minsk II deal aimed to end Russia’s limited invasion of Ukraine in 2015 but instead laid the groundwork for the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022.

Latest from ISW

Iran Update, June 30, 2025

US officials told Western media that Iranian officials said in intercepted communications that the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear program were “less devastating” than anticipated, which is inconsistent with previous open-source reporting and the nature of the strikes. Four unspecified US officials familiar with US intelligence said that the intercepted communication included Iranian officials speculating as to why the US airstrikes were not as destructive and extensive as they anticipated.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2025

High-ranking Kremlin statements, including from Russian President Vladimir Putin, continue to demonstrate Russia's wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond Crimea and the four oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on June 30 on the socioeconomic development of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts during which he frequently referred to occupied Ukraine as “Donbas and Novorossiya.”