Iran Crisis Update, December 24

Iran Crisis Update, December 24

Nicholas Carl, Dana Alexander Gray, Zachary Coles, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 24, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Note: CTP will not publish a daily Iran Crisis Update on December 25 for the Christmas holiday. CTP will resume daily publishing on December 26.

The Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou on December 24 after rejecting his appeal.[1] The Judiciary convicted Ghobadlou of “corruption on earth” and sentenced him to death in October 2022. This charge—corruption on earth—is an extremely broad charge that the Judiciary often uses to justify executions. The Iranian penal code states that this charge can be brought against an individual who “extensively commits a felony against the bodily entity of the people, offenses against internal or international security of the state, spreads lies, disrupts the economic system of the state, commits arson or destroys properties, distributes poisonous and bacterial and dangerous materials, or [establishes, aids, or abets] places of corruption and prostitution.”[2] The Supreme Court published earlier on December 24 that it had accepted the appeals of Ghobadlou and Saman Seyyedi Yasin—two protesters on death row—but later retracted that report and stated that it had accepted the appeal of Yasin but upheld Ghobadlou’s death sentence.[3]

Protest activity increased only marginally for the planned demonstrations on December 24, likely in part due to inclement weather conditions. Calls for protests have largely failed to generate surges in turnout since mid-November 2022. CTP continues to assess that this reduced protest activity does not, however, indicate the end of the anti-regime movement.[4] The ongoing protests—even at low levels—likely continue to strain the bandwidth, energy, and morale of security forces.[5]

Vice President for Women and Family Affairs Ensieh Khazali commemorated Women’s Week in Iran on December 24.[6] Khazali celebrated the position of women under the Islamic Republic and accused foreign enemies of trying to promote immorality among Iranian women. She added that the regime will hold events and programs during Women’s Week to “raise awareness among Iranian women” about the role of foreign actors in stoking protests. The UN Economic and Social Council previously voted to expel Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women on December 14 in response to the regime’s oppression of millions of Iranian women.[7]

Key Takeaways

• The Iranian Supreme Court upheld the death sentence of 22-year-old protester Mohammad Ghobadlou after rejecting his appeal.
• Protest activity increased only marginally for the planned demonstrations, likely in part due to inclement weather conditions. At least seven protests occurred in six cities across six provinces.
• Vice President for Women and Family Affairs Ensieh Khazali commemorated Women’s Week in Iran.
• Some Iranian economic and political actors have acknowledged the economic consequences of the regime’s internet disruptions.
• Iranian media reported that the Iranian rial reached a new record low of around 400,800 to the US dollar.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least seven protests occurred in six cities across six provinces on December 24. CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province[8]

• Size: Small
• Notes: Protesters chanted “our judges are murderers, the whole system is corrupt” during an evening demonstration on Karaj streets.

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[9]

• Size: Small

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[10]

• Size: Undetermined
• Protest Activity: Protesters set fires on a Sanandaj street.

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[11]

• Size: Small
• Protest Activity: Protesters set fires on Mashhad streets
• Notes: Footage from social media depicted likely regime security forces patrolling a Mashhad street on motorbikes.

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province[12]

• Size: Undetermined
• Regime Violence: Regime security forces reportedly clashed with and shot at protesters.

Tehran City, Tehran Province[13]

• Size: Small

Tehran City, Tehran Province[14]

• Size: Small
• Notes: Protesters marched in the vicinity of the Haft Houz neighborhood during an evening demonstration.

Some Iranian economic and political actors have acknowledged the economic consequences of the regime’s internet disruptions. An Iranian journalist claimed on December 24 that some private internet providers have complained to the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Ministry regarding the financial losses they have incurred due to the internet restrictions.[15] These providers warned that continuing internet blackouts jeopardize their businesses. Former ICT Minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi previously stated that on October 30 the regime’s internet disruptions will sharply reduce the revenue of internet providers.[16]

Iranian media reported that the Iranian rial reached a new record low of around 400,800 to the US dollar on December 24.[17] The dollar sold for around 317,000 rials on September 16—when the protests began.[18] Parliamentarian Ehsan Arkani criticized the Central Bank of Iran for the currency devaluation and stated that it must answer to Parliament.[19]

Fourteen Tehran chapters of the Basij University Students Organization published an open letter on December 24 calling on Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei to establish an online database for information on prominent cases involving corruption and political and security issues.[20] The signatories also called for an online platform for clerical and legal experts to submit criticisms and opinions to the Judiciary. The Basij chapters stated that such measures should increase public confidence in the Judiciary.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.

[1] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/10/03/2826108

[2] https://www.refworld.org/docid/518a19404.html

[3] https://isna dot ir/xdMZGb

[4] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-20

[5] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-23

[6] https://www.ilna.ir/fa/tiny/news-1312441

[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-14

[8] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1606725509647310848?s=20&t=xJjoN3vtvY4CqHrmCUzuWQ; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1606726353008693248?s=20&t=bGwG-shCXXcGvxHaxxP90g; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1606696374115909639?s=20&t=dLej6vy86qWqeddsauifag

[9] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1606705885740425216?s=20&t=Cy5MsT2ZpGWoF1UMjb5pdA; https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1606727813435908097?s=20&t=LiER4CUTP3W0uJarPyCw9w

[10] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1606692561615261696?s=20&t=FGEgdOuH99Acv5ptNSm6JA

[11] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1606736850017820673?s=20&t=e2kk1SZ4RJ-q0t1_F0yzTA; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1606706989572059136?s=20&t=dd6SInamS826jcrClDr2iA; https://twitter.com/1500tasvir/status/1606706654304763905?s=20&t=2irRecDwX5lDhe9jtGHp9A; https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1606694314070970368?s=20&t=hvFXjqzh8tKBsPD7og2-Aw;

[12] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1606745648400834561?s=20&t=5VCSXvMeLxIuf2nBspaiBQ

[13] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1606683601982062592?s=20&t=bNPcbpKF4lnplUDJWfF3xg

[14] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1606679358420275200?s=20&t=ZPjMXeCKpmQvm974nFHKgw

[15] https://twitter.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1606712160918421504

[16] https://t.me/azarijahromi/678

[17] https://hammihanonline dot ir/news/title-one/dlar-br-skwy-40-hzar-twman-aystad

[18] www.bonbast dot com/historical/usd/2022/09

[19] https://isna dot ir/xdMZH9

[20] https://isna dot r/xdMZHp