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Likely Hezbollah sources threatened to incite protests in Lebanon against US Special Envoy Thomas Barrack’s upcoming visit to Beirut if senior Lebanese officials do not meet with Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani’s visit to Beirut on August 13. Lebanese officials have reportedly attempted to pressure Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and other Lebanese officials not to meet with Larijani.
Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati discussed the threats that Iran perceives to its regional influence in an interview on August 9 that underscored Iran’s commitment to its strategic goals despite recent setbacks. Velayati’s statements demonstrate significant continuity between Iran’s pre- and post-war approach to the region and its use of the Axis of Resistance.
Hezbollah supporters held protests in 16 locations across Lebanon on August 7 in response to the Lebanese government’s support for disarming Hezbollah. Public support for Hezbollah presents a significant obstacle to decreasing Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon in the short term.
Former Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif proposed the creation of a regional nuclear body called the Middle East Network for Atomic Research and Advancement (Menara) in an op-ed in the Guardian on July 31. Iran would almost certainly demand to maintain domestic enrichment capabilities under such a proposal.
The Iranian Parliament appears to be trying to play an influential role in shaping Iranian security policy following the Israel-Iran War by supporting and approving security-related legislation at an anomalously high rate. Parliament recently approved a bill on July 27 that would further expand the regime’s ability to suppress public dissent.[1] The bill targets unspecified “fake news” on social media and only applies to social media accounts with over 90,000 followers.
Media affiliated with Iranian Supreme Leader International Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati published an op-ed on July 29, framing moderates and pragmatic hardliners in Iran as necessary for national unity following the 12-day Israel-Iran War.
The E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) reiterated that it will trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reinstate UN Security Council sanctions on Iran if Iran fails to make progress towards a nuclear deal by the end of August 2025.
US, Israeli, and Syrian officials met in Paris on July 24 to discuss de-escalating tensions between the Syrian transitional government and Israel in southern Syria.
Some Iranian officials continued to signal openness to resuming nuclear talks with the United States, but Iranian officials have not altered their previous set of conditions.
The New York Times reported on July 23 that the series of fires and explosions that have taken place across Iran since the Israel-Iran ceasefire have fueled public anxiety and suspicions among Iranian officials about Israeli sabotage.