Iran Project

Western media reported that the April 26 US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman ended in “major disagreements” despite repeated positive messaging from senior Iranian and US officials.

Iran and the United States will hold separate technical and high-level talks in Muscat, Oman, on April 26. Iranian media reported on April 25 that Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi and Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi will lead Iran's technical team.

Iran reportedly asked the United States during nuclear talks in Rome on April 19 to negotiate an interim deal, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran may calculate an interim deal would delay or prevent snapback sanctions or a strike.

A Salafi-jihadi group ideologically close to the Islamic State (IS) is conducting extrajudicial killings against Syrians perceived to be tied to the now-deposed Bashar al Assad regime. The group—Saraya Ansar al Sunnah—called for the killing of an Assad informant in Aleppo on April 13 and has claimed two killings targeting informants since then.

Unspecified Iranian sources told a Qatari-owned, London-based outlet on April 22 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing “beyond belief.” Iran could calculate that by framing the talks as positive, even if the reality does not match, Iran could delay a US or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program or the imposition of snapback sanctions on Iran.

Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on April 19.

Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed.

Senior Iranian political and military officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, met with Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman in Tehran on April 17. Saudi Arabia may seek to reassure Iran about its positions on a potential strike on Iran and a potential ground offensive against the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran is unlikely to accept zero uranium enrichment and full dismantlement of its nuclear program

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may calculate that engaging in nuclear negotiations with the United States is the best option for preserving the Iranian regime's stability. Khamenei discussed the United States-Iran nuclear talks and economic priorities during a meeting with senior Iranian government officials on April 15. Khamenei called for mitigating the impact of international sanctions on the Iranian economy while simultaneously expressing support for nuclear talks with the United States.