Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Dec 5, 2022 - ISW Press

Iran Crisis Update, December 5

Nicholas Carl, Kitaneh Fitzpatrick, Dana Alexander Gray, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan

December 5, 5:00 pm ET

The Iran Crisis Updates are produced by the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). To receive Iran Crisis Updates via email, please subscribe here.

Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly on December 5—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizations for countrywide demonstrations until December 7.[1] These strikes are the most reported in a single day since CTP began publishing daily updates on September 28. This dramatic increase in public expressions of dissent will likely continue until at least December 7. The latest protest activity and strikes highlight once again the capability of the protest coordinators and organizations to generate countrywide demonstrations against the regime—even after a few days of reduced protests and strikes.

The regime responded to the increased protest activity and strikes by downplaying their extent and threatening them. Tasnim News Agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), reported that only a few strikes occurred on December 5.[2] Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei ordered the relevant authorities to identify, arrest, and prosecute protesters organizing and promoting the countrywide strikes “quickly and decisively.”[3] Ejei accused protesters of coercing and manipulating the owners of businesses and shops to strike.

Iranian media and officials published conflicting messages on December 5 on whether the regime will abolish the morality patrol. The spokesperson for the Enjoining Good and Forbidding Wrong Headquarters, Ali Khan Mohammadi, stated that the “mission [of the guidance patrol] has ended.”[4] This headquarters is responsible for determining and enforcing certain religious and social standards in Iran. Reformist-affiliated newspaper Ham Mihan contrastingly reported that morality patrols have increased in Qom.[5] The Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Tehran Provincial unit's spokesperson refused to clarify the morality patrol's status in a call with a journalist.[6] This inconsistent reporting suggests that the regime may have either failed to coordinate its messaging properly or has not yet reached a consensus over whether to continue the morality patrol.

Prosecutor General Mohammad Javad Montazeri stated on December 1 that Parliament and the Supreme Cultural Revolution Council will announce an opinion on the mandatory hijab law by December 16—leaving the possibility that the regime will announce changes to the morality patrol by then.[7]

The regime will likely maintain and continue enforcing its mandatory hijab law regardless of whether it abolishes the morality patrol, however. Regime officials have suggested using facial recognition technologies for such enforcement. Khan Mohammadi discussed using new enforcement methods, such as advanced technologies, likely referring to the face-recognizing surveillance cameras that the regime has installed in cities and towns throughout Iran. [8]The secretary of the Enjoining Good and Forbidding Wrong Headquarters, Mohammad Saleh Hashemi Golpayegani, previously suggested using facial recognition software to enforce the mandatory hijab law in August 2022.[9]

Key Takeaways

Protest activity and strikes increased significantly—in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizations for countrywide demonstrations until December 7.
Iranian media and officials published conflicting messages on whether the regime will abolish the morality patrol.
At least 29 protests took place in 18 cities across 16 provinces.
Social media users reported significant countrywide strikes in 73 cities across 27 provinces, although this number is almost certainly higher.
The Mashhad and Karaj neighborhood youth groups called on protesters to identify and mark businesses and shops not participating in the countrywide strikes.
LEC Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Ghanbari announced the death of an LEC officer who unidentified gunmen attacked and injured in Chabahar.

Anti-Regime Protests

At least 29 protests took place in 18 cities across 16 provinces on December 5.

CTP assesses with moderate to high confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province[10]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[11]

Size: Small

Shiraz, Fars Province[12]

Size: Small

Regime Repression: Security forces shot at protesters, tear gas

Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province[13]

Size: Small

Rasht, Gilan Province[14]

Size: Small

Regime Repression: Security forces shot at protesters

Hamedan City, Hamedan Province[15]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province[16]

Size: Small

Demographic: Industrial workers

Protest type: Strike and protest

Note: Uncorroborated social media reports suggest that a local official visited the strike and protest site in an attempt to quell protesters

Podol, Hormozgan Province[17]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Kouzaran, Kermanshah Province[18]

Size: Small

Protest Activity: Fire lit in street

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[19]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit on highway

Choram, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province[20]

Size: Small

Arak, Markazi Province[21]

Size: Small

Tehran City, Tehran Province[22]

Size: Small

Area: Sattar Khan Street

Tehran City, Tehran Province[23]

Size: Small

Area: Shariati Street

Tehran City, Tehran Province[24]

Size: Small

Area: Sadeghieh metro stop

Tehran City, Tehran Province

Size: Small

Area: Shariati Street

Tehran City, Tehran Province[25]

Size: Small

Area: Chitgar

Tehran City, Tehran Province[26]

Size: Small

Area: Tehransar

Tehran City, Tehran Province[27]

Size: Small

Area: Ekbatan

Protester Activity: Fire lit in street

Zanjan City, Zanjan Province[28]

Size: Small

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred in the following locations:

Bushehr City, Bushehr Province[29]

Size: Small

Hamedan City, Hamedan Province[30]

Size: Small

Hengouyieh, Hormozgan Province[31]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Ilam City, Ilam Province[32]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Amol, Mazandaran Province[33]

Size: Undetermined

Protester Activity: Fires lit in street

Tehran City, Tehran Province[34]

Size: Undetermined

Area: Tehran Pars

Tehran City, Tehran Province[35]

Size: Small

Area: Towhid metro stop

Tehran City, Tehran Province[36]

Size: Small

Protester Activity: Fires lit on highway

Area: Varamin highway

Tehran City, Tehran Province[37]

Size: Small

Area: Narmak

Note: CTP defines small protests as fewer than 100 individuals, medium protests as between 100 and 1,000, and large protests as over one thousand.

A significant number of merchants, truckers, and industrial workers adhered to protest organization groups’ calls for countrywide strikes on December 5. Social media users reported strikes in at least 73 cities across 27 provinces on December 5, although this number is almost certainly much higher. Reports suggest that strikes occurred in the following locations:

Karaj, Alborz Province[38]

Bandar-e Ganaveh, Bushehr Province[39]

Bushehr City, Bushehr Province[40]

Jam, Bushehr Province[41]

Boroujen, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province [42]

Shahr-e Kord, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari[43]

Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province[44]

Esfahan City, Esfahan Province[45]

Fouladshahr, Esfahan Province[46]

Kelishad and Soderjaan, Esfahan Province[47]

Najafabad, Esfahan Province[48]

Shahin Shahr, Esfahan Province[49]

Shahreza, Esfahan Province[50]

Evaz, Fars Province[51]

Kazeroun, Fars Province[52]

Marvdasht, Fars Province[53]

Nourabad, Fars Province[54]

Shahr-e Jadid-e Sadra, Fars Province[55]

Shiraz, Fars Province[56]

Zarghan, Fars Province[57]

Ghazvin City, Ghazvin Province[58]

Bandar-e Anzali, Gilan Province[59]

Lahijan, Gilan Province[60]

Rasht, Gilan Province[61]

Hamedan City, Hamedan Province[62]

Bandar-e Abbas, Hormozgan Province[63]

Abdanan, Ilam Province[64]

Eyvan, Ilam Province[65]

Sarableh, Ilam Province[66]

Kerman City, Kerman Province[67]

Eslamabad-e Gharb, Kermanshah Province[68]

Javanroud, Kermanshah Province[69]

Kangavar, Kermanshah Province[70]

Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province[71]

Kouzaran, Kermanshah Province[72]

Paveh, Kermanshah Province[73]

Ravansar, Kermanshah Province[74]

Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province[75]

Neyshabour, Khorasan Razavi Province[76]

Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi Province[77]

Gachsaran, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province[78]

Ahvaz, Khuzestan Province[79]

Bandar-e Mahshar, Khuzestan Province[80]

Behbahan, Khuzestan Province[81]

Izeh, Khuzestan Province[82]

Baneh, Kurdistan Province[83]

Dehgolan, Kurdistan Province[84]

Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province[85]

Ghorveh, Kurdistan Province[86]

Kamiyaran, Kurdistan Province[87]

Kani Dinar, Kurdistan Province[88]

Marivan, Kurdistan Province[89]

Saghez, Kurdistan Province[90]

Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province[91]

Boroujerd, Lorestan Province[92]

Doroud, Lorestan Province[93]

Arak, Markazi Province[94]

Khomein, Markazi Province[95]

Babol, Mazandaran Province[96]

Bojrnourd, North Khorasan Province[97]

Qom City, Qom Province[98]

Garmsar, Semnan Province[99]

Chabahar, Sistan and Baluchistan Province[100]

Noukabad, Sistan and Baluchistan Province[101]

Andisheh, Tehran Province[102]

Eslamshahr, Tehran Province[103]

Tehran City, Tehran Province[104]

Boukan, West Azerbaijan Province[105]

Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province[106]

Oroumiyeh, West Azerbaijan Province[107]

Oshnaviyeh, West Azerbaijan Province[108]

Sardasht, West Azerbaijan Province[109]

Yazd City, Yazd Province[110]

The Mashhad and Karaj neighborhood youth groups called on protesters to identify and mark businesses and shops not participating in the countrywide strikes on December 5.[111] The Shiraz Neighborhood Youth previously called on December 2 for protesters to send in images and videos of stores open during the planned strikes to organize boycotts.[112]

Protesters threw incendiaries at and set aflame the house of a security officer in Saghez, Kurdistan Province on December 5.[113]

LEC Sistan and Baluchistan Provincial Commander Brigadier General Mohammad Ghanbari announced on December 5 the death of an LEC officer who unidentified gunmen attacked and injured in Chabahar on December 4.[114] Around 64 security officers have died since protests began on September 16.[115]

Social media accounts reported on December 5 that Hossein Taeb and his political allies are trying to install Taeb as Supreme National Security Council secretary.[116] CTP cannot verify the rumors about Taeb. Taeb has been an adviser to IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami since Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismissed Taeb as IRGC Intelligence Organization chief in June 2022.[117] Taeb has become an increasingly public-facing figure since his removal, regularly making public statements criticizing the US and Israel.[118] CTP previously hypothesized that Taeb may seek to use his public image to bolster his efforts at securing a new senior position within the Iranian security establishment, such as Supreme National Security Council secretary.[119] Uncorroborated reports in recent weeks have indicated some regime officials have criticized the incumbent, Ali Shamkhani, over his response to the protests. Taeb’s chances of becoming Supreme National Security Council secretary at present seem low, but CTP will revise this assessment as we process new information.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing significant to report today.

[1] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-november-30

[2] https://www.tasnimnews dot com/fa/news/1401/09/14/2817006

[3] https://www.ilna dot ir/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3/1305819-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A7%DA%98%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A6%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B0%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%82%DB%8C%D8%A8-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%B9-%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%B9-%D8%B9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF%DA%AF%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85

[4] https://www.jamaran dot news/fa/tiny/news-1576502

[5] https://hammihanonline dot ir/news/society/tghyyr-bh-nf-znan?highlight=WyJcdTA2YWZcdTA2MzRcdTA2MmEiLCJcdTA2MjdcdTA2MzFcdTA2MzRcdTA2MjdcdTA2MmYiLCJcdTA2NDJcdTA2NDUiXQ==

[6] https://www.etemadonline dot com/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-23/585919-%DA%AF%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%87-%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%82

[7] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-crisis-update-december-2

[8] https://www.jamaran dot news/fa/tiny/news-1576502; https://www.criticalthreats.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Whatever-it-t...

[9] https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-surveillance-cameras-identify-women-hijab-r...

[10] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1599867006106206208?s=20&t=fdv22S...

[11] https://twitter.com/IranIntl/status/1599845723738079233?s=20&t=L9UvdbSzk...

[12] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1599855661390536705?s=20&t=JYi4pB...

[13] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1599857116197462016?s=20&t=_eVVhV...

[14] https://twitter.com/ToukAlii/status/1599823410615685121?s=20&t=17HWI8jac...

[15] https://twitter.com/Vahid/status/1599864799508430848?s=20&t=KgNG7G9lvpmP...

[16] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1599872297057144833?s=20&t=JYi4pB...

[17] https://twitter.com/RadioFarda_/status/1599812564476694528?s=20&t=j07qgC...

[18] https://twitter.com/iranworkers/status/1599821056167927809; https://twitter.com/HengawO/status/1599815202962173953?s=20&t=z_9X-pi2uw...