Iran Update, February 24, 2024

Iran Update, February 24, 2024

Ashka Jhaveri, Kathryn Tyson, Johanna Moore, Peter Mills, Annika Ganzeveld, Alexandra Braverman, Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET 

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Gaza Strip: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued clearing operations in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City.
• Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip.
• Political Negotiations: US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials proposed a new hostage deal to Israeli negotiators during discussions in Paris.
• Yemen: US CENTCOM reported that it destroyed seven Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles in Houthi-controlled Yemen that were ready to fire.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued clearing operations in Zaytoun neighborhood, southeastern Gaza City, on February 24. The IDF 401st Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) directed an airstrike on Palestinian fighters preparing to launch anti-tank munitions at Israeli forces in Zaytoun.[1]

Palestinian militias continued trying to disrupt Israeli operations in Zaytoun on February 24. The militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun.[2] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, fired RPGs, mortars, and rockets and clashed with Israeli forces in Zaytoun and south of Zaytoun.[3] The Mujahideen Brigades fired rockets targeting Israeli forces in Zaytoun.[4] The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement is a Palestinian faction aligned with Hamas and has expressed close ties with Iran.[5] The military wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine clashed with Israeli forces in Zaytoun.[6] The PFLP is a secular leftist Palestinian faction fighting with Hamas.

The IDF Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) killed several Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip between February 23 and 24.[7]

The IDF continued to conduct clearing operations in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on February 24. The IDF 7th Armored Brigade (assigned to the 36th Division) “deepened” its operations in western Khan Younis.[8] The brigade located weapons in a re-purposed UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) bag in western Khan Younis.[9] The same brigade raided the house of a senior military intelligence officer in Khan Younis and destroyed a tunnel shaft near the house.[10] The brigade also identified seven Palestinian fighters in Khan Younis and directed an airstrike that killed the fighters.[11] The 35th Paratrooper Brigade (assigned to the 98th Division) located weapons and clashed with Palestinian fighters in western Khan Younis.[12] The Givati Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) directed sniper fire targeting several Palestinian fighters in Khan Younis.[13]

Palestinian militias continued to defend against Israeli clearing operations in Khan Younis on February 24. The al Quds Brigades mortared Israeli forces in Khan Younis.[14] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades conducted mortar and improvised explosive device attacks and clashed with Israeli forces in Khan Younis City and western Khan Younis.[15] The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement said that its fighters sniped Israeli soldiers in western Khan Younis.[16]

US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials proposed a new hostage deal to Israeli negotiators during discussions in Paris.[17] An IDF-affiliated media outlet reported that the Israeli delegation returned from Paris and that an unspecified source said, “There is progress in almost all parameters.”[18] However, Israeli war cabinet members said, “Hamas is still far from what Israel is willing to accept."[19] An unnamed foreign diplomat told Israeli media that all sides showed flexibility and that “hopefully” a deal can be reached before Ramadan, which is expected to begin around March 10, 2024.[20] Israeli officials have stated that Israeli forces will enter Rafah at the start of Ramadan if Hamas does not release the remaining Israeli hostages the group holds.[21]

An unspecified Hamas source told Saudi media that Hamas showed flexibility in the duration of the ceasefire, the number of prisoners Israel will release, and the “limits” of an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.[22] The source stated that Hamas waived its previous requirement that Israel release 1,500 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the release of Hamas-held Israeli hostages. Israeli media reported that Israel would release 200-300 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 24-50 Israeli hostages, according to the new deal.[23]

Three US and Israeli officials told Axios that the Biden administration asked Israel to stop targeting members of the Hamas-run police force who escort aid trucks in the Gaza Strip.[24] The administration warned that a “total breakdown of law and order” is exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the strip. The Guardian similarly reported on January 30 that there is a general breakdown in law and order in the Gaza Strip.[25] Aid officials reported several incidents of unspecified personnel looting aid trucks.[26] The IDF has targeted Hamas’ police and internal security apparatus to disrupt Hamas’ attempts to rebuild its governing authority.[27] The Civil Police and the Hamas-controlled Interior Ministry's Internal Security Forces in the Gaza Strip both employ fighters from the Hamas military wing.[28]

Unspecified Palestinian fighters conducted one indirect fire attack from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel on February 24.[29]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on February 23.[30]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, conducted at least 10 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on February 23.[31]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

US CENTCOM reported that it destroyed seven Houthi anti-ship cruise missiles in Houthi-controlled Yemen that were ready to fire on February 23.[32]

[1] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1761293701899280616

[2] https://t.me/sarayaps/17475; https://t.me/sarayaps/17476

[3] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5827; https://t.me/AymanGouda/6065; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5820; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5826

[4] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4451

[5] https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/mujahideen-brigades/; https://www.newsweek.com/not-only-hamas-eight-factions-war-israel-gaza-184129

[6] https://t.me/abualiajel/138; https://t.me/kataebabuali/10635

[7] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1761293708698300740

[8] https://www.idf dot il/182266

[9] https://www.idf dot il/182266; https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-troops-find-mortars-in-unrwa-bags-tunnel-shaft-near-top-hamas-officers-home/

[10] https://www.idf dot il/182266; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1761409791979618699

[11] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1761293719787999597

[12] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1761426674325823620; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1761390526505288182

[13] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1761293716763935112

[14] https://t.me/sarayaps/17472

[15] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5821; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5822; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5825; https://t.me/nedalps/4001

[16] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4449

[17] https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/israel-hamas-gaza-hostage-talks-progress-ceasefire

[18] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1761358423138979841

[19] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1761431704508461473

[20] https://www.haaretz dot com/israel-news/2024-02-24/ty-article-live/blinken-says-u-s-disappointed-with-israeli-plans-to-build-3-000-homes-in-west-bank/0000018d-d911-df79-a5cd-f93ff2860000?liveBlogItemId=151387906#151387906

[21] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gantz-no-peace-via-one-sided-moves-rafah-invasion-by-ramadan-if-hostages-not-home/

[22] https://asharq dot com/politics/81109/

[23] https://www.ynet dot co.il/news/article/skteh00d2p#autoplay

[24] https://www.axios.com/2024/02/24/gaza-humanitarian-aid-israel-hamas-police-biden

[25] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/hamas-returns-northern-gaza-new-offensive?CMP=share_btn_tw

[26] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/30/hamas-returns-northern-gaza-new-offensive?CMP=share_btn_tw

[27] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1754024593151434865; https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-forces-pound-gaza-hamas-studies-ceasefire-proposal-2024-01-31/

[28] https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/civil_police/; https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/internal_security_force/

[29] https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1761389354390339927; https://t.me/hamza20300/217424

[30] https://t.me/hamza20300/217444 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/217445 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/217447 ; https://t.me/QudsN/374858 ; https://t.me/QudsN/374860

[31] https://t.me/mmirleb/2221 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2226 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1761361290520383497 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2228 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2230 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2232 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2234 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2236 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2238

[32] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1761226351032533223