Iran Update, March 10, 2024

Iran Update, March 10, 2024

Andie Parry, Peter Mills, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Note: CTP and ISW have refocused the update to cover the Israel-Hamas war. The new sections address developments in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, as well as noteworthy activity from Iran’s Axis of Resistance. We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on March 9 and 10, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume Monday, March 11, 2024

Key Takeaways:

• Northern Gaza Strip: Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces operating in southern Gaza City.
• Southern Gaza Strip: Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis.
• US Operations: The US Army sent a vessel to the Mediterranean Sea with the first load of equipment to establish a humanitarian port off the Gaza Strip.
• West Bank: Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank.
• Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to launch and sustain a major ground operation into the Gaza Strip
• Degrade IDF material and morale around the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian fighters targeted Israeli forces operating in southern Gaza City on March 10. Palestinian militias reported that their fighters fired mortars and small arms targeting Israeli forces in the Tal al Hawa and Zaytoun neighborhoods, south of Gaza City.[1] The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement targeted Israeli forces southeast of Gaza City with short-range rockets.[2] The IDF Nahal Brigade (162nd Division) has continued to operate in “central” Gaza, likely referring to the areas south of Gaza City in which Palestinian militias continue to claim attacks.[3] Israeli forces are also operating south of Gaza City to demolish structures along a new road that splits the Gaza Strip between the north and south.[4]

Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in northern Khan Younis on March 10. The IDF Givati Brigade (162nd Division) raided Hamas infrastructure used during the October 7 attack and seized mortars, an explosively formed penetrator (EFP), and small arms in eastern Hamad.[5] The Givati Brigade killed and detained Palestinian fighters in the area.[6] The IDF 89th Commando Brigade continued fighting in Hamad in close-range clashes and detained two Hamas fighters who surrendered to the IDF.[7] The IDF Egoz unit directed an airstrike on a Palestinian fighter responsible for the death of an Israeli soldier in the southern Gaza Strip on March 8.[8] The IDF Bislamach Brigade continued to target Palestinian fighters in Qarara.[9]

Palestinian militias continued trying to defend against the IDF around Khan Younis on March 10. Hamas fighters detonated a building in Bani Suheila that Israeli forces had rigged to explode.[10] Hamas claimed the house explosion killed and wounded Israeli forces, but the IDF did not acknowledge casualties from the attack at the time of this writing. This attack bears similarities to a Hamas attack that killed 21 Israeli soldiers as the soldiers rigged a building to detonate in the Central Gaza Strip in January 2024.[11] Hamas fighters also targeted Israeli dismounted infantry operating in tunnels in Bani Suheila.[12] The al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, which is the self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah and aligned with Hamas in the war, reported that its fighters fired mortars and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting Israeli forces in Hamad and generally west of Khan Younis City.[13]

Israeli forces are targeting Hamas nodes involved in attacks outside of the Gaza Strip. Israeli journalists reported that the IDF conducted a strike in eastern Rafah on March 10 targeting a Hamas official who was responsible for directing attacks in the West Bank.[14] Israeli forces, separately, arrested a cell of Arab Israelis from Sakhnin that was planning an attack on Israelis in coordination with Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip.[15] Hamas instructed the Sakhnin cell to construct improvised explosive devices.[16] Shin Bet said that that Hamas is still attempting to stoke tensions outside of the Gaza Strip during Ramadan.[17]

US CENTCOM announced on March 9 that a US Army logistics support vessel departed from Virginia to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea with the first load of equipment to establish a temporary pier to deliver humanitarian supplies to the Gaza Strip.[18] US President Biden announced the temporary pier initiative on March 7 during his State of the Union address.[19] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the US plan to provide aid to the Gaza Strip via a temporary port will “advance the collapse of Hamas’s rule.”[20] Gallant also acknowledged that Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel would be involved in the maritime corridor.[21]

Palestinian militias did not conduct any indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into Israel on March 10.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward the West Bank and fix them there

Israeli forces have clashed with Palestinian fighters at least three times in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 9.[22]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Draw IDF assets and resources toward northern Israel and fix them there
• Set conditions for successive campaigns into northern Israel

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least 13 attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on March 9.[23]

Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

Axis of Resistance campaign objectives:

• Demonstrate the capability and willingness of Iran and the Axis of Resistance to escalate against the United States and Israel on multiple fronts
• Set conditions to fight a regional war on multiple fronts

There is no significant activity to report.

[1] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1747 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5972 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/17554 ;

https://t.me/AymanGouda/6085 ;

https://t.me/mojahdeenpal/4301

[2] https://t.me/darebmojahden/4562

[3] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735943451447493

[4] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/08/middleeast/israel-building-road-splitting-gaza-cmd-intl/index.html

[5] www.idf dot il/184814

[6] www dot idf.il/184814

[7] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735961281474750

[8] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735931204047326

[9] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1766735965651939692

[10] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1745

[11] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-23-2024 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1749794794778337606

[12] https://t.me/qassam1brigades/1745

[13] https://t.me/AymanGouda/6086 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5973 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5974 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/5971

[14] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1766753183194353851 ; https://x.com/fdov21/status/1766800667107066365?s=20 ; https://twitter.com/AJArabic/status/1766730882721665383?s=20

[15] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766766646637560165 ; https://twitter.com/GLZRadio/status/1766792602320273741

[16] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1766766646637560165

[17] https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1766753183194353851

[18] https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1766623783857836091

[19] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/08/biden-gaza-state-of-the-union/

[20] https://twitter.com/kann_news/status/1766856735958950144

[21] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/gallant-praises-us-plan-to-provide-aid-to-gaza-via-sea-says-it-will-advance-the-collapse-of-hamass-rule/

[22] https://t.me/QudsN/380059 ; https://t.me/QudsN/380131 ; https://t.me/QudsN/380144

[23] https://t.me/mmirleb/2518 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2520 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2527 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2529 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2531 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2533 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2535 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2537 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2539 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2541 ; https://t.me/C_Military1/47056 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2545 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/2547