Iran Update, November 29, 2024

 

Iran Update, November 29, 2024

Kelly Campa, Alexandra Braverman, Carolyn Moorman, Ben Rezaei, Avery Borens, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands of fighters and armored elements advanced quickly eastward, seizing several villages within a few hours of launching the offensive.[1] Fateh Mubin—an opposition group based in HTS-controlled Idlib Province—announced on November 28 that they had seized control of another 13 villages and achieved the “complete liberation” of the countryside to the west of Aleppo City.[2] Fateh Mubin designated the western Aleppo countryside a ”closed military zone.”[3] Local Syrian sources reported that opposition forces seized armored vehicles and weapons, including anti-tank guided missiles and man-portable air defense systems, belonging to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).[4] Fateh Mubin claimed that opposition forces also detained over 20 pro-regime fighters.[5] The opposition forces advanced into the western parts of Aleppo City on November 29, marking the first time that the city has been contested since pro-regime forces captured it in late 2016.[6] Opposition forces then advanced into the city center and declared a curfew over the city, according to local reports and geolocated footage.[7] Social media accounts posted videos of opposition fighters entering a military hospital, a police headquarters, and the Aleppo municipal building.[8]

The opposition forces killed an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer, Brigadier General Kiomars Pour Hashemi, as they advanced.[9] The IRGC acknowledged his death and described him as a military adviser to the Syrian regime.[10] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami attended a ceremony for Pour Hashemi in Tehran on November 29.[11]

Pro-regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the surprise offensive by opposition forces. An SAA-affiliated social media account claimed that opposition forces outnumber the SAA forces around Aleppo City and suggested that the SAA may be unable to respond until reinforcements arrive.[12] Other social media users reported that SAA units retreated toward al Safirah, southeast of Aleppo City, although CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports.[13] Russian forces separately conducted multiple airstrikes—some in cooperation with the SAA—targeting opposition forces.[14] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on November 29 that the opposition offensive is a violation of Syrian sovereignty and that Moscow supports Bashar al Assad in reclaiming the territory.[15]

Iranian officials and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias blamed the United States and Israel for the opposition offensive. Iranian leaders called for “coordinated action” to defeat the offensive and accused the United States and Israel of supporting opposition activity against Assad.[16] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba and Kataib Sayyida al Shuhada released statements claiming that Israel is responsible for the offensive because the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was defeated in Lebanon.[17] An official from Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada vowed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—will defeat the opposition forces.[18]

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has continued to hold since it went into effect on November 26. Hezbollah has not conducted any attacks into Israel and the IDF and Hezbollah have not engaged in any ground combat. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem gave a public speech to acknowledge the end of fighting on November 29, saying that Hezbollah would abide by the ceasefire “with our heads held high.”[19] Qassem emphasized that the ceasefire includes a full IDF withdrawal from Lebanon by January 25, 2025.[20] The IDF still has a force presence in southern Lebanon for now in order to counter any potential violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah.[21] Qassem also vowed that Hezbollah would retain a role in Lebanese politics and support reconstruction in Lebanon.[22]

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) began post-war operations across Lebanon. The LAF is clearing roads, detonating unexploded ordinance, and installing checkpoints, especially in southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon.[23] The LAF began to deploy forces, including armored elements, to southern Lebanon on November 27—one day after the ceasefire into effect.[24] Hezbollah Secretary General Qassem said that Hezbollah will engage in “high-level coordination” with the LAF to implement the ceasefire.[25]

The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in response to militant activity.[26] The IDF struck a rocket launcher at a Hezbollah site in Bisariya, near Sidon, after detecting unspecified activity at the site.[27] An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF detected a ”non-immediate threat” at the site that the IDF needed to neutralize.[28] Axios reported that the United States assessed that Hezbollah was trying to relocate rockets to new sites.[29] The IDF separately struck two fighters who had entered a Hezbollah site and began moving rocket launchers.[30] The LAF accused Israel on November 28 of violating the ceasefire.[31]

The IDF continued trying to prevent displaced citizens from returning to their homes in southern Lebanon.[32] The IDF conducted a drone strike as a “warning” to deter individuals in vehicles from approaching Markaba.[33] The IDF similarly shelled targets near al Wazzani likely to deter individuals from approaching the area.[34] A Hezbollah commander told the Wall Street Journal that Hezbollah fighters who live in southern Lebanon will remain in the area and retain their small arms.[35]

A Hamas fighter conducted a shooting attack targeting Israelis in the West Bank, highlighting the threat that Hamas poses outside the Gaza Strip. The Hamas fighter wounded eight Israelis on a bus near Ariel settlement in the northern West Bank on November 29.[36] Israeli forces then killed the fighter and assessed that the fighter acted on behalf of a cell rather than as an individual.[37] The IDF assessed that attacks in the West Bank will increase in the coming weeks. This attack comes after the IDF assessed in September 2024 that it had defeated Hamas in the Gaza Strip.[38]

Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas designated an interim successor should he die or leave office.[39] Abbas, who has been president since 2005 and is 89 years old, designated on November 28 the Palestinian National Council (PNC) chairman to serve as interim president for no more than 90 days after Abbas leaves office. The PNC is the 747-member legislative body under the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and represents Palestinians from the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and diaspora.[40] The current PNC chairman is Rawhi Fattouh, who had been PA President for two months after the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004.[41] Fattouh has served as Abbas’ personal representative since 2006.[42]

Iran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it plans to expand its uranium enrichment capacity significantly. These plans include installing over 6,000 additional centrifuges and activating others at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.[43] This notification is consistent with the Atomic Energy Organization announcing on November 27 that it began injecting gas into "thousands of advanced centrifuges.”[44] Iran is retaliating for the IAEA Board of Governors passing on November 21 a censure resolution proposed by the E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom). The resolution condemned Iran for failing to cooperate fully with the IAEA over outstanding questions about the Iranian nuclear program. The activation and installation of additional centrifuges comes as Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons program in early 2024.[45] CTP-ISW is not prepared to assess that Iranian leaders have decided to build a nuclear weapon at this time, however.

Key Takeaways:

• Syria: Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. Pro-regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the surprise offensive.
• Lebanon: The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has continued to hold. The LAF began post-war operations, including clearing roads, detonating unexploded ordinance, and installing checkpoints across Lebanon.
• West Bank: A Hamas fighter conducted a shooting attack targeting Israelis in the West Bank, highlighting the threat that Hamas poses outside the Gaza Strip. This threat remains despite the defeat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
• Iran: Iran notified the IAEA that it plans to expand its uranium enrichment capacity by installing over 6,000 additional centrifuges and activating others at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.

Gaza Strip:

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF 162nd Division has continued clearing operations in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on November 27. The IDF destroyed improvised explosive devices (IED) and militia infrastructure, killing Palestinian fighters.[46] IDF 401st Armored Brigade soldiers directed an airstrike targeting Hamas fighters and a weapons depot after identifying a nearby Hamas fighter trying to fire rockets into Israel.[47]

Palestinian militias have claimed at least four mortar attacks targeting the IDF in the northern Gaza Strip since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on November 27.[48]

The IDF continued operations in the central Gaza Strip on November 28. A Palestinian journalist reported gunfire from vehicles north and west of Nuseirat refugee camp.[49] A Palestinian journalist also reported heavy gunfire from vehicles east of Bureij camp.[50]

The IDF 143rd Division continued clearing operations near Rafah City on November 28. The National Resistance Brigades detonated an IED targeting the IDF east of Rafah City.[51]

The Mujahideen Brigades conducted two indirect fire attacks targeting an IDF site in southern Israel on November 29.[52]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in a partial ceasefire-hostage deal, according to a senior Israeli cabinet minister.[53] This deal would refrain from requiring Israel to agree to an end to the October 7 war nor complete a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The minister added to Axios that the ceasefire in Lebanon has weakened Hamas‘ position.[54]

The IDF intercepted a drone carrying weapons from Egypt that crossed into Israeli airspace on November 27.[55] The drone carried small arms and ammunition.[56] Egyptian security sources said that they had ”no knowledge” of the incident.[57]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

•  Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Palestinian fighters conducted two separate shooting attacks targeting Israeli forces in the West Bank on November 29.[58] One fighter shot at an Israeli border police vehicle in el Khader near Bethlehem. Another fighter attempted a drive-by shooting attack targeting the IDF in Hebron.[59] Neither attack caused Israeli casualties. Palestinian militias have claimed no attacks at the time of this writing.

The Israeli Security Cabinet extended the agreement to conduct business between Israeli and Palestinian banks until November 2025.[60] The agreement allows financial correspondence between banks in Israel and banks in the West Bank.[61] Western officials, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, previously criticized the Israeli decision to only approve the agreement for one-month increments as they believed it would create significant economic turmoil in the West Bank.[62]

Israeli forces confiscated small arms and explosive devices across the West Bank on November 27-28.[63] Israeli forces arrested over 20 wanted individuals and confiscated ”hundreds of thousands of shekels in terrorist funds” across the West Bank.[64]

Northern Israel and Lebanon

Lebanese Hezbollah objectives:

• End Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip
• Survive the October 7 War as a capable political and military organization with control over Lebanon

The IDF urged displaced residents of northern Israel against returning to their homes on November 29.[65] The IDF emphasized the ”general closure areas” adjacent to the perimeter fence between Israel and Lebanon in the upper and western Galilee regions. The IDF urged citizens to refrain from entering these prohibited areas and to allow Israeli forces to continue their missions.[66] The IDF Home Front Command lifted many restrictions on civilian gathering for many areas in central Israel and the greater Haifa area on November 28.[67]

The IDF continued to operate in Khiam, southeastern Lebanon, on November 29. Geolocated footage posted by local Lebanese sources on November 29 showed an IDF Merkava tank in western Khiam.[68] Lebanese media reported that Israeli machine gun bursts were observed and heard near Khiam.[69]The IDF confirmed to Western media that its has continued to operate around Khiam.[70]

Lebanese sources reported that the IDF operated in Markaba, southeastern Lebanon, on November 29.[71] Lebanese media reported that the IDF is advancing around Markaba toward Bani Hayyan, southeastern Lebanon.[72] Lebanese media reported that the IDF was observed bulldozing houses and land in Markaba.[73]

The IDF continued to fire artillery across southern Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect on November 26. Israeli Army Radio reported that there had been several recorded incidents of IDF artillery fire and shooting in the western sector of southern Lebanon.[74] Israeli Army Radio added that Israeli artillery units fired in order to discourage Lebanese residents from returning to closed areas.[75] The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson re-published a map of these zones on November 29.[76]

The IDF stated that the IDF Air Force has struck over 12,500 Hezbollah targets since late September 2024.[77] The targets include over 1,600 military headquarters and 1,000 weapons depots. The IDF struck over 360 targets in Beirut and over 1,000 in the Bekaa Valley. The IDF destroyed over 150 weapons depots, 160 operational headquarters, and 1,500 infrastructure elements of the Radwan special operations forces (SOF). The IDF assessed with high confidence that it killed at least 2,500 Hezbollah fighters and senior officials, including four division commanders and 24 Brigade commanders. The IDF also stated that Hezbollah has less than 30 percent of the drones that it had prior to the IDF operation. The IDF seized over 12,000 IEDs and drones and over 13,000 launchers, anti-tank missiles, and rockets. The IDF also confiscated over 121,000 communication devices and computers.

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi vowed that the Houthis will continue the fight in the Gaza Strip in a speech on November 28.[78] Abdulmalik said that the Houthis will prevent Israel from isolating the Gaza Strip and called for increased support for Palestinians following the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. Abdulmalik claimed that Hezbollah defeated Israel and that the conflict will continue despite the ceasefire in Lebanon. Abdulmalik claimed that the Houthis have prevented 100 percent of ”enemy navigation” in the Arabian and Red seas.[79] Abdulmalik further emphasized the importance and strength of the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias operating against Israel.[80]

The Iranian Space Research Institute announced the production of "super-resolution" satellite images with a 35-45-centimeter resolution from the Khayyam satellite.[81] Russia launched a Kanopus-V satellite, known in Iran as the Khayyam, into orbit on behalf of Iran in August 2022.[82] Iran can use satellites with imagery collection capabilities to enhance its targeting in attacks abroad.

A Russian Air Force education and training delegation visited Iran on November 29 to enhance cooperation in education, military, and research training.[83] A senior Artesh Air Force officer emphasized the discussions on faculty exchanges and joint education and exercises.[84]

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

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