Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 2, 2024
Oct 2, 2024 - ISW PressUkraine continues efforts to expand domestic production of significant military equipment and maintain its drone advantage over Russia.
Ukraine continues efforts to expand domestic production of significant military equipment and maintain its drone advantage over Russia.
Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack that targeted Israel from Iranian territory on October 1. Iran claimed to launch this attack in response to Israel’s killing of senior Axis of Resistance leaders including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles, including Emad and Ghadr ballistic missiles, from Iranian territory. Iran claimed to launch its domestically produced hypersonic medium-range “Fattah-2” ballistic missile for the first time in the October 1 attack.
Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar as of October 1 following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future. Geolocated footage published on September 30 and October 1 shows Russian forces planting Russian flags and freely operating in various parts of Vuhledar, and Russian milbloggers claimed on October 1 that Russian forces seized the settlement.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 30, 2024
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Christina Harward, Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it began a "targeted and delimited ground operation in southern Lebanon" on September 30. The IDF said that ground forces will operate to target Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in villages along the Israel-Lebanon border.
The Russian government plans to spend $183 billion on national security and defense in 2025 — about 41 percent of its annual expenditures. The Russian government submitted a bill on the federal budget for 2025 to 2027 to the State Duma on September 30. The bill projects federal revenues to be $433 billion in 2025 and federal expenditures to amount to $446 billion.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is trying to help Lebanese Hezbollah recover from the severe disruption that Israel has imposed upon it.
Western countries continue to invest in the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB).
Lebanese Hezbollah confirmed that Israel killed its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike in Beirut on September 27. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that Israel was aware of Nasrallah’s whereabouts for months and conducted the airstrike to exploit a brief window of opportunity. Unspecified Israeli officials said that Israel dropped over 80 explosive munitions on Hezbollah’s main military headquarters where Nasrallah was located.
Western officials continue to highlight efforts by the People's Republic of China (PRC) to support the Russian war effort in Ukraine. The Times reported on September 27 that Western officials revealed that an unspecified PRC company is sending a range of military drones to Russia for testing and eventual use by Russian forces in Ukraine. A Western official reportedly stated that the PRC company signed the agreement with Russia in 2023 and that there is "clear evidence that PRC companies are supplying Russia with deadly weapons for use in Ukraine."