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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 12, 2024

Sep 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces continued counterattacking throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on September 12 but made only marginal gains, likely due to continued Ukrainian offensive operations and defensive counterattacks in the area. Geolocated footage published on September 12 indicates that Russian forces made marginal advances west of Vishnevka (southwest of Korenevo) and in northern Krasnooktyabrskoye (southwest of Korenevo).

Africa File, September 12, 2024: China-Africa Forum (FOCAC) Takeaways; Mali and Russia Prepare to Avenge Defeat in Northern Mali

Sep 12, 2024 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the highest total investment through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) since the peak of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic as it discussed plans to continue diversifying cooperation in Africa beyond hard-infrastructure BRI projects. Many of the new agreements and funding plans from FOCAC 2024 are areas of emphasis in its 2021 Global Development Initiative, including green energy and tech, food and health development, and governance and military cooperation.

Iran Update, September 10, 2024

Sep 10, 2024 - ISW Press

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on September 10 that Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to Russia amid growing international condemnation of Tehran's support for Russia's war in Ukraine. Blinken confirmed that Russia has received an unspecified number of SRBM shipments and warned that Russian forces will likely use them on the battlefield "within weeks." Iranian officials continue to deny that Tehran has sent weapons to Moscow. Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy affirmed on September 10 that the United States and the United Kingdom are "completely aligned" on the need to tackle Iranian influence both in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 10, 2024

Sep 10, 2024 - ISW Press

US President Joe Biden stated on September 10 that the presidential administration is working on lifting restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-provided weapons to strike military objects within Russia. Biden stated that his administration is "working that out now," in response to a question about whether the United States would lift restrictions prohibiting Ukraine from using US-provided long-range weapons to strike within Russia. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated earlier on September 10 during a press conference with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy that Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will likely discuss lifting these restrictions during a meeting on September 13.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 9, 2024

Sep 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on September 9, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to advance the creation of its envisioned “Eurasian security architecture.” Lavrov held talks with GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Al-Budaiwi, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammad bin Salman on the sidelines of the Russia-GCC Strategic Dialogue and emphasized Russia’s interest in enhancing cooperation with Gulf states.

Iran Update, September 9, 2024

Sep 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran recently delivered over 200 Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Ukrainian intelligence. An unspecified Ukrainian military source told British media on September 6 that Russia transported the missiles to an unspecified Caspian Sea port on September 4. Iran has previously transferred weapons from its Amirabad and Anzali ports on the Caspian Sea to Astrakhan, Russia, on the Volga River.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 8, 2024

Sep 8, 2024 - ISW Press

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns cautioned the West against concern about boilerplate Russian nuclear saber-rattling, which ISW has long identified as part of a Kremlin effort to promote Western self-deterrence and influence key moments in Western policy debates about support for Ukraine. Burns stated during a panel with United Kingdom Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) Chief Richard Moore on September 7 that Russian President Vladimir Putin will continue to issue periodic threats of direct confrontation against the West but that these threats should not intimidate the West.

Iran Update, September 8, 2024

Sep 8, 2024 - ISW Press

A Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis present at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and the West Bank on September 8. Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. The IDF Air Force struck and killed Hamas’ eastern Khan Younis Battalion rocket commander on September 3. The IDF said on September 8 that the commander launched rockets at towns near the Gaza Strip and central Israel throughout the war.

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