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Hamas’ View of the October 7 War

Oct 7, 2024 - ISW Press

Military conditions are being set in the Gaza Strip that could lead to the defeat of Hamas, but these conditions will fail to achieve an enduring end to the war without a political solution. The military defeat of Hamas is an essential precondition for the establishment of a new government in Gaza that will be willing and able to make and keep an enduring peace. Defeat is a temporary military effect, however. Israel must cement Hamas’ defeat by setting a clear and obtainable political endstate for this war, and the US and its regional partners must also recognize that a ceasefire in the current conditions will virtually ensure the renewal of Hamas attacks on Israel and future major war in the Gaza Strip.

Iran Update, October 5, 2024

Oct 5, 2024 - ISW Press

An Israeli military correspondent reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to expand its ground operations in southern Lebanon. The IDF plans to send more forces, according to the correspondent, which would build upon the two divisions already operating in southern Lebanon. These divisions have primarily operated around Lebanese villages immediately along the border with Israel.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2024

Oct 5, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian Government plans to allocate 90 billion rubles ($948 million) to one-time payments for concluding a military contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) between 2025 and 2027, indicating that the Kremlin plans to continue relying on ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts to meet the manpower requirements of its war in Ukraine for as long as the crypto-mobilization system works.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 3, 2024

Oct 3, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian offensive effort in eastern Ukraine that began in fall 2023 continues to produce gradual Russian tactical gains in specific sectors of the front, but operationally significant gains will likely continue to elude Russian forces. (ISW distinguishes between tactical gains, which are relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of the fighting, and operational gains, which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire frontline.)

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