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Iran Update, February 27, 2025

US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) Commander Mazloum Abdi rejected a call from Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan to disarm and dissolve. Ocalan, who is imprisoned in Turkey, said that “all groups must lay [down] their arms” and called on PKK leaders to hold a conference to dissolve the PKK.

Africa File, February 27, 2025: SAF Advances West Toward Darfur; M23 and DRC Reset as International Pressure Grows on Rwanda; ISSP Poses Clear Transnational Threat; al Shabaab Central Somalia Offensive

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are advancing in south-central Sudan and setting conditions for an offensive into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur. The SAF captured el Obeid—a state capital in south-central Sudan that will likely support SAF offensives into Rapid Support Forces (RSF) strongholds in Darfur—on February 20.

A US Withdrawal from Syria Will Reinvigorate the ISIS Terror Threat

The withdrawal of US forces from Syria would risk reversing hard-earned gains against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS). ISIS is not destroyed.  It is kept in check by the combined pressure of US forces in Iraq and Syria and their Kurdish allies. The withdrawal of US forces will remove that pressure and allow ISIS to reconstitute, likely rapidly, to dangerous levels.

Iran Update, February 25, 2025

The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions. It is very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States by June 2025, given that such a deal would require Iran to completely change its current policy on negotiations.

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