Iran Update, September 8, 2024

Iran Update, September 8, 2024

Johanna Moore, Annika Ganzeveld, Andie Parry, and Brian Carter

Information Cutoff: 2:00pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

A Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis present at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and the West Bank on September 8.[1] The driver arrived at the Israeli-controlled side of the border crossing, exited his vehicle, and opened fire at Israeli forces working there.[2] Israeli forces at the border crossing killed the shooter.[3] The gunman killed three Israeli civilians working at the border crossing.[4] The Israel Airports Authority—the Israeli government entity responsible for airports and land-to-land border crossings—closed Allenby Bridge, the Rabin crossing, and Jordan River crossing with Jordan until further notice following the shooting attack.[5]

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah congratulated the Islamic Resistance in Jordan on September 8 for the shooting attack at Allenby Bridge.[6] Kataib Hezbollah spokesperson Hussein Moanes, also known as Abu Ali al Askari, said on April 1 that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed militias—has prepared to “equip” 12,000 “Islamic Resistance in Jordan” fighters with a significant supply of weapons.[7] Moanes said that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq seeks to equip Jordanian fighters so that Iraq and Jordan can jointly attack Israel to ”defend” the Palestinian cause. Jordanian Interior Minister Mazin Abdullah Hillal al Farrayeh said that the driver acted alone.[8] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify Kataib Hezbollah’s September 8 claim.

Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi claimed on September 7 that Iran will “certainly” conduct a “second True Promise Operation,” in reference to the April 2024 Iranian drone and missile attack targeting Israel.[9] Naghdi claimed that Iran will retaliate “at the right time” to ensure that its retaliation generates “more effects.”[10] The United States, Israel, and their allies intercepted most of the projectiles that Iran fired toward Israel in April 2024, and the Iranian attack inflicted significantly less damage on Israel than Tehran intended.[11] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Iran could modify its April 2024 attack model in several ways, including by increasing the volume of projectiles it fires at Israel or changing the number of locations in Israel that it targets, to increase the likelihood of inflicting serious damage on Israel.[12]

Chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) Richard Moore stated on September 7 that he still expects Iran to retaliate against Israel the killing of Haniyeh.[13] Moore stated that “we won’t be able to let our guard down for the type of activity that the Iranians might try and prosecute in that direction.”

Key Takeaways:

• West Bank: A Jordanian truck driver killed three Israelis present at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Jordan and the West Bank on September 8.
• Iranian Retaliation: Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks.
• Gaza Strip: The IDF Air Force struck and killed Hamas’ eastern Khan Younis Battalion rocket commander on September 3. The IDF said on September 8 that the commander launched rockets at towns near the Gaza Strip and central Israel throughout the war.

Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF Air Force struck and killed Hamas’ eastern Khan Younis Battalion rocket commander on September 3.[14] The IDF said on September 8 that the commander launched rockets at towns near the Gaza Strip and central Israel throughout the war.[15] The IDF struck the commander in an unspecified area of Khan Younis on September 3.[16] The IDF Air Force separately struck 25 targets throughout the Gaza Strip on September 7 and 8, including Palestinian fighter cells and militia buildings.[17]

The IDF 252nd Division continued operations along the Netzarim Corridor on September 8.[18] Israeli forces killed several Palestinian fighters that posed a threat to IDF operations near the corridor.[19]

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on September 8.[20] The IDF 401st Brigade has killed dozens of Palestinian fighters and destroyed militia infrastructure in Tal al Sultan “Casbah” over the past few days.[21] IDF 401st Brigade soldiers engaged Palestinian fighters barricaded in a building that had targeted Israeli forces with a grenade.[22] The IDF seized many weapons and documents from the building after killing the Palestinian fighters.[23] Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PLFP) said on September 8 that its fighters targeted Israeli forces with rockets in eastern Rafah on September 4.[24]

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters in six locations across the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 7.[25]

This map is not an exhaustive depiction of clashes and demonstrations in the West Bank.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
• Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
• Expel the United States from Syria

Iranian-backed militias, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have conducted at least seven attacks into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on September 7.[26]

The IDF Northern Command is pursuing a new pre-emptive strike strategy against Hezbollah launch sites according to an Israeli Army Radio correspondent.[27] The IDF has pursued this strategy since Hezbollah’s retaliatory strike against Israel on August 24. Hezbollah launched “hundreds” of munitions at Israeli towns along the Israel-Lebanon border, including those that have not been evacuated, in response to overnight Israeli airstrikes.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Houthis claimed on September 7 that they shot down a US MQ-9 Reaper drone over Marib Governorate, Yemen.[28] Houthi spokesperson Yahya Sarea claimed that the Houthis have shot down eight US MQ-9 Reaper drones since the start of the Israel-Hamas War in October 2023. CTP-ISW cannot verify that the Houthis shot down a US drone on September 7.

[1] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1832676392053375075 ; https://x.com/idfonline/status/1832687907473064206 ; https://t.me/moriahdoron/13579

[2] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1832687907473064206

[3] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1832687907473064206

[4] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13569 ; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/08/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-hamas-war-west-bank.html

[5] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1832714635323027613

[6] https://t.me/centerkaf/4565

[7] https://t.me/abualaskary/118

[8] https://t.me/moriahdoron/13588

[9] https://sepahnews dot ir/fa/news/20584 ;

 https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/news/1258202

[10] https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/news/1258202

[11] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/13/iran-israel-hamas-war-news-gaza-palestine/#link-LFWWPTKAPZFTXDUVQCTFH6HSM4

[12] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-4-2024

[13] https://www.timesofisrael dot com/liveblog_entry/uk-spy-chief-says-still-expecting-iranian-retaliation-for-killing-of-haniyeh/

[14] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832737564777758996

[15] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1832738643414303156

[16] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1832738643414303156

[17] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832737629231579363

[18] https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1832738244355580228

[19] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832737575565398358

[20] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832737564777758996

[21] www dot idf.il/229080 ; https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1832508439429284202

[22] https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1832508439429284202

[23] www dot idf.il/229080

[24] https://t.me/abualiajel/357

[25] https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7472 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7473 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7474 ; https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7475 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1570 ; https://t.me/sarayajneen/1571 ; https://t.me/hamza20300/291099

[26] https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832626163530846588 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6674 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832626160813199832 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6679 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6681 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6683 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/6685 ; https://twitter.com/idfonline/status/1832825861399089192

[27] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1832705438296519010

[28] https://x.com/army21ye/status/1832522314950340789/photo/2