Iran Update, November 9, 2024

 

Iran Update, November 9, 2024

Johanna Moore, Siddhant Kishore, Carolyn Moorman, Annika Ganzeveld, Ben Rezaei, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) publish the Iran Update, which provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Key Takeaways:

• Gaza Strip: The IDF continued clearing operations in the northern Gaza Strip. The IDF also allowed aid trucks to enter the northern Gaza Strip for the first time in several weeks.
• West Bank: Israeli forces conducted raids in the northern West Bank, killing a Palestinian fighter, as part of an effort to degrade Palestinian militia networks there.
• Lebanon: The IDF continued clearing operations and its air campaign, targeting Lebanese Hezbollah capabilities and infrastructure in Lebanon.
• Iran: Iranian and Israeli social media users claimed that the IRGC conducted a missile test in central Iran. Iran has not acknowledged any test at the time of this writing.

Gaza Strip:

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
• Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

The IDF 162nd Division continued clearing operations around Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip on November 9. The IDF killed several Palestinian fighters and directed an airstrike targeting a militia weapons storage facility.[1] A Palestinian journalist reported IDF gunfire inside Jabalia refugee camp.[2] The IDF recently deployed its 900th Infantry Brigade to Jabalia. The brigade specializes in operations in urban environments and is well-suited to destroy militia cells within Jabalia City and refugee camp.[3]

The IDF facilitated the transportation of 11 aid trucks into the northern Gaza Strip on November 8.[4] An Israeli military correspondent reported that 11 trucks carrying humanitarian aid reached Jabalia and Beit Hanoun in the northern Gaza Strip via the Erez Crossing. This is the first time that aid trucks have reached Jabalia in the past month.[5] The IDF has evacuated over 20,000 Palestinian civilians from Jabalia since the IDF launched a new clearing operation there on October 6.[6] Several hundred Gazans remain in Jabalia, however.[7]

The National Resistance Brigades mortared the IDF around the Netzarim Corridor on November 9.[8]

The IDF 143rd Division continued clearing operations in Rafah on November 8.[9] The IDF killed several Palestinian fighters and destroyed militia infrastructure. A Palestinian journalist reported that the IDF has transformed a Qatari-funded, under-constructed hospital in Tal al Sultan into a military base to conduct raids into Rafah City.[10] Social media footage shows that the IDF is expanding its clearing operation in the area by conducting controlled demolition of civilian infrastructure around the hospital complex.[11]

The Popular Resistance Committees and Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) fired rockets at Kissufim in southern Israel on November 9.[12] 

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

• Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

The IDF conducted raids in the northern West Bank and killed one Palestinian fighter on November 9.[13] The IDF operated in Tubas and Aqqaba.[14] The IDF detained 5 individuals and seized ammunition and “terrorist funds.”[15] Palestinian militias reportedly detonated improvised explosive devices (IED) targeting Israeli forces.[16] The IDF reported no casualties. These Israeli raids are meant to degrade Palestinian militia networks in the northern West Bank.

Israeli forces have engaged Palestinian fighters in at least three locations in the West Bank since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on November 8.[17]

Northern Israel and Lebanon

Lebanese Hezbollah objectives:

• End Israeli operations in the Gaza Strip
• Survive the October 7 War as a capable political and military organization with control over Lebanon

The IDF 810th Infantry Mountain Brigade (210th Division) has conducted raids in the outskirts of Kafrchouba, southeastern Lebanon, in recent days.[18] Israeli forces located underground Lebanese Hezbollah infrastructure, rocket launchers, and weapons stockpiles. The IDF 810th Infantry Brigade has operated around the Hermon and Mount Dov areas for two months to find militia infrastructure. Geolocated footage posted on November 8 showed that the IDF 810th Infantry Brigade operating southwest of Cheeba.[19]

The IDF 769th Brigade (91st Division) conducted raids and other clearing operations in unspecified Lebanese border towns.[20] The IDF reported that elements of its 91st Division have destroyed over 300 militia infrastructure targets above and below ground, located weapons warehouses, and documents since beginning clearing operations on October 1.

The IDF has continued clearing operations in southwestern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's data cut off on November 8. Hezbollah claimed one drone attack targeting the IDF east of Maroun al Ras on November 9.[21] Lebanese media claimed that the IDF fired artillery at an unspecified target in Bint Jbeil.[22]

The IDF continued its air campaign targeting Hezbollah capabilities and infrastructure on November 9. The IDF Air Force struck a Hezbollah headquarters and weapons production site in Dahieh in southern Beirut.[23] The IDF issued evacuation orders for five buildings in the area prior to the strike.[24] The IDF Air Force also struck several Hezbollah apartment units and weapons warehouses in Baalbek and Tyre.[25] Hezbollah claimed that it intercepted an IDF reconnaissance drone with a surface-to-air missile in Deir Seryan, southeastern Lebanon, prior to an IDF Air Force strike in the area.[26] Lebanese sources did not report an airstrike in this area or near it on November 9.

This map illustrates individual Israeli air and artillery strikes based on local Lebanese reporting. This map depicts strikes reported from 2:00pm ET on November 8 to 2:00pm ET on November 9. This map is not exhaustive. CTP-ISW cannot independently verify the locations of Israeli strikes.

Hezbollah has conducted at least 22 rocket attacks into Israel since CTP-ISW's data cutoff on November 8.[27] An Israeli Army Radio Correspondent noted that Hezbollah fired over 50 rockets into northern Israel the morning of November 9.[28] Hezbollah conducted 15 of its 22 attacks targeting Israeli towns, including both Kiryat Shmona and Safed twice.[29] Hezbollah fired rockets targeting Maalot-Tarshiha twice and claimed that it issued warnings to Israeli civilians in the north prior to the second strike.[30] Hezbollah has previously claimed to issue these warnings prior to attacks.[31] Hezbollah is likely attempting to erode the Israeli public’s willingness to sustain IDF operations in Lebanon by signaling that the IDF is not fulfilling Israel’s war objective of allowing civilians in northern Israel to return to their homes. Hezbollah also claimed two separate rocket attacks on November 9 that it conducted on November 8 targeting ”Malam” military factory south of Tel Aviv and Haifa technical base south of Haifa.[32] Hezbollah claimed that the Haifa technical base served as a training college for IDF Air Force technicians and struck it again on November 9.[33]

Iran and the Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed four attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on November 8. The claims include the following:

• A drone attack targeting an unspecified military target in southern Israel.[34]
• Two drone attacks targeting unspecified military targets in northern Israel.[35]
• A drone attack targeting an unspecified “vital target” in northern Israel.[36]

The IDF intercepted a drone launched from Iraq before it entered Israeli airspace on November 9.[37] The interception caused alarms to go off in the Golan Heights.[38]

The IDF conducted airstrikes near Aleppo and Idlib in northwestern Syria on November 8.[39] The IDF targeted the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) in al Safira, southeast of Aleppo.[40]Israeli special operations forces recently conducted a raid in September 2024 targeting the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC) site in Masyaf in northwestern Syria, which has been long involved in the production of advanced weapons, including precision munitions.[41] The IDF also reportedly targeted Syrian Arab Army (SAA) positions near Saraqib, southeast of Idlib, on November 8.[42] A Syrian milblogger claimed that Israeli fighter jets entered Syrian airspace near al Tanf along the Syria-Jordan border.[43] The Syrian defense ministry reported that the strikes injured several soldiers and caused material damage.[44]

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on November 8 a vessel sighting 9-15 small craft 53 nautical miles southwest of Aden, Yemen.[45] The small craft approached closely with armed crews. The vessel resumed its voyage safely after the encounter. UKMTO advised vessels transiting the area to exercise caution and report any suspicious activity.[46]

The Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques, an Iranian-backed militia claiming to operate in Saudi Arabia, claimed a drone attack targeting an unspecified location in the Jordan Valley on November 8.[47] This attack marks the third time that the Islamic Resistance in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques has claimed an attack targeting Israel since October 25.[48] Israeli officials and media have not commented on the attack claim at the time of this writing.

Iranian and Israeli social media users circulated a video on November 8 purporting to show the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) conducting a missile test in Shahroud, Semnan Province.[49] A social media account affiliated with the IRGC Aerospace Force Salman Farsi Space Command in Shahroud published a statement after the reported launch that “[Iran's] message was sent from Shahroud to Tel Aviv.”[50] Iranian officials have not confirmed the missile test at the time of this writing, and CTP-ISW cannot verify that a test took place. The IDF struck a missile facility in Shahroud in its strikes into Iran on October 25.[51]

A hardline Iranian parliamentarian, Ahmad Naderi, suggested on November 9 that Iran tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in Shahroud.[52] Naderi stated that Iran conducting an ICBM test would be “nothing unexpected.”[53] Naderi added that Iran should conduct a nuclear test as soon as possible.[54] This statement is consistent with statements from other Iranian officials in recent months trying to pressure the Supreme Leader to reverse his 2003 fatwa banning nuclear weapons.[55]

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

[1] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1855112272433090628

[2] https://t.me/hamza20300/309472

[3] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-november-2-2024

[4] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1855191816401736102

[5] https://wapo.st/3Cml8wf

[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-6-2024 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-23-2024

[7] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1855191816401736102

[8] https://t.me/kataeb_moqawma/4462

[9] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1855112281689850101

[10] https://x.com/ytirawi/status/1855216936461754414

[11] https://x.com/ytirawi/status/1855222043022614865

[12] https://t.me/alwya2000/7139

[13] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16397

[14] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1855213821545095328

[15] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16397

[16] https://x.com/GLZRadio/status/1855213821545095328

[17] https://t.me/sarayajneen/1772 ;

https://t.me/elaqsa_1965/7851 ; https://t.me/nedalps/4494

[18] https://www.idf dot il/246162

[19] https://x.com/TwistyCB/status/1855219982507954243 ; https://x.com/MarioLeb79/status/1855213462856589778

[20] https://www.idf dot il/246218

[21] https://t.me/mmirleb/8879

[22] https://t.me/channelnabatieh/100785

[23] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1855121544051044853

[24] https://x.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1854975318941225124

[25] https://x.com/idfonline/status/1855306496831066365

[26] https://t.me/mmirleb/8856

[27]  https://t.me/mmirleb/8852 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8850 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8851 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8859 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8854 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8855 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8857 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8858 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8860 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8861 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8864 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8865 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8866 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8867 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8868 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8869 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8870 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8871 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8872 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8873 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8876 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8877

[28] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16401

[29] https://t.me/mmirleb/8852 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8867 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8851 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8866

[30] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16401 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8861 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8858

[31] https://t.me/mmirleb/8754 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8697

[32] https://t.me/mmirleb/8873 ; https://t.me/mmirleb/8877

[33] https://t.me/mmirleb/8877

[34] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1488

[35] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1489 ;

https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1492

[36] https://t.me/ElamAlmoqawama/1491

[37] https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1855170535761576280

[38] https://t.me/moriahdoron/16401

[39] https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0NnN3K1HQf4rpUZqjLHpQhPNMLReDywaePPNhXjfiW8DoLz7UxhBfcqM47iuLT769l

[40] https://x.com/SAMSyria0/status/1855272180004561234 ;

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1855017018220855650

[41] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-september-12-2024

[42] https://x.com/SAMSyria0/status/1855035470389948922

[43] https://x.com/SAMSyria0/status/1855020433055400181

[44] https://www.facebook.com/mod.gov.sy/posts/pfbid0NnN3K1HQf4rpUZqjLHpQhPNMLReDywaePPNhXjfiW8DoLz7UxhBfcqM47iuLT769l

[45] https://statics.teams.cdn.office.net/evergreen-assets/safelinks/1/atp-safelinks.html

[46] https://statics.teams.cdn.office.net/evergreen-assets/safelinks/1/atp-safelinks.html

[47] https://t.me/Almoqawamabeladalharamaen/6

[48] https://t.me/Almoqawamabeladalharamaen/3 ;

https://t.me/Almoqawamabeladalharamaen/5 ;

https://t.me/Almoqawamabeladalharamaen/6

[49] https://x.com/fresh_sadegh/status/1855166129309680002 ;

https://x.com/IntelliTimes/status/1855185854500651113

[50] https://www.tabnak dot ir/fa/news/1270577

[51] https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-attack-shahroud-guard-base-satellite-photos-b9cdb18b252d6dd9014dc4dcb3dd4b2f

[52] https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202411098855

[53] https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202411098855

[54] https://www.iranintl dot com/en/202411098855

[55] https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-october-9-2024