China Project

Republic of China (Taiwan) Vice President and presidential candidate Lai Ching-te will transit through the United States on August 12 and 16. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is framing Lai’s transit as a provocative crisis, which is messaging intended to justify greater People’s Liberation Army (PLA) naval and aerial activity around Taiwan. The normalization of such military activity around Taiwan in response to the ROC’s leadership transits through the United States would support a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) coercion campaign to induce unification on the PRC’s terms.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Mao Ning’s condemnation of imperial era Japanese military aggression indicates that the CPP aims to portray itself as a pan-Asian leader to legitimize its military buildup.

The purge of People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) leadership indicates that Xi Jinping needs to reestablish confidence in portions of the military leadership.

The Ministry of State Security (MSS) called for the masses to participate in counter-espionage work, which may lead to the new expansion of the CCP’s online security apparatus.

The KMT called for coordinating with the TPP during the 2024 Legislative Yuan elections, which indicates that the KMT aims to expand its ability to win legislative seats even if it loses the presidency.

The CCP’s United Front apparatus coordinated attacks on DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te’s July 4 The Wall Street Journal op-ed “My Plan to Preserve Peace in the Taiwan Strait” to reduce support for his candidacy by framing him as pro-war.

The CCP announced the creation of the National Data Bureau (NDB) in March to manage the PRC’s public and private data. The organization may serve as a coordination vehicle between the CCP’s economic and national security organs.

Higher-ranking Chinese officials decided to meet with Henry Kissinger rather than United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry during their recent visits to China. That higher-ranking CCP officials met with Kissinger indicates that the party will use access to CCP policy-makers as leverage to induce American policy-makers to enact the party’s preferred policy outcomes.

Foxconn founder Terry Gou published an article in the Washington Post urging high-level dialogue between the ROC and PRC. The article likely will further CCP information operations that aim to exculpate the party from blame for exacerbating cross-strait tensions. This assessment is independent of Gou’s intentions for publishing the article.

The Taiwanese media outlet United Daily News (UDN) falsely alleged the United States pressured Taiwan to develop biological weapons. The UDN allegation likely will further CCP information operations that aim to decrease the confidence of the Taiwanese population in the United States as a reliable partner.

The CCP is likely to fuse human and technological surveillance methods in implementing its anti-espionage law.

The CCP criticized Japan’s release of over one million tons of water from the destroyed Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, possibly to buttress the party’s image as a responsible regional power.

The CCP messaged its alignment with Russia’s view of NATO as an instigator in other regions’ affairs to signal its opposition to greater NATO involvement in East Asia.

1. Cross-strait issues have reemerged as the prominent topics of debate in the Taiwanese presidential election.

2. The Cyberspace Administration of China renewed its crackdown on “self-media” to create an internet order governed by stricter central censorship.

Key Takeaways

1. KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih stated his intent to stop the extension of mandatory military service to one year, likely exacerbating existing CCP leverage points targeting the DPP under the dominant but contested “war versus peace” election narrative.
2. The CCP publicly qualifies comments from Chinese Ambassador to the European Union Fu Cong about Ukraine reclaiming its 1991 borders and is unlikely to replace Fu Cong.

The PLA has normalized drone flights around Taiwan within Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and may begin conducting such flights with regular manned aircraft during the next 12-24 months.

Ongoing media coverage about TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je’s support for resuming cross-strait talks involving the controversial Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA) may improve the standing of the DPP or KMT in the 2024 presidential election.

The PRC framed the Wagner Group rebellion as a minor challenge that Russia overcame.

Ongoing scandals involving the DPP and KMT are likely contributing to greater support for TPP presidential candidate Ko Wen-je.

China emphasized economic cooperation over de-risking and the protection of advanced technological sectors for national security purposes during meetings with German officials, likely to split US-EU technological and economic restriction strategies aimed at China.

China refused to restart military-to-military dialogue with the United States, possibly to extract political concessions from the United States for future dialogue.

The narrative that the 2024 presidential election is a choice between peace and war is likely to reemerge as the dominant narrative in the mid to long term.

The CCP used a recent report about US evacuation plans for Taiwan to advance information operations that aim to degrade United States-Taiwan security cooperation.

China questioned the United States’ motives for re-joining the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in a likely attempt to establish conditions to discredit US global leadership.

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s call for “large domestic [economic] circulation” that can withstand “extreme circumstances” is likely a long-term push to create a sanction-resistant Chinese economy while engaging with, but not becoming reliant upon, the international economic environment.

This page collects ISW China Team's China–Taiwan Weekly Updates, which focus on the Chinese Communist Party's paths to controlling Taiwan and relevant cross–Taiwan Strait developments. ISW began publishing the China–Taiwan Weekly Update on April 24, 2023.