Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 12, 2024

February 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that elements of Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are training Russian drone operators at the Shayrat Air Base in Syria. The GUR stated that LH and IRGC trainers are training Russian operators how to use Shahed-136/-131, Ababil-3, and Qods Raab 85 drones and that LH commander Kamal Abu Sadiq is heading the training effort. Iranian-backed militias and Russian forces are located at Shayrat Air Base, which is the second largest Iranian air base in Syria’s Homs Province after the Tiyas T-4 Air Base.

Iran Update, February 11, 2024

February 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clashed with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip on February 11. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) mortared Israeli military positions east of Gaza City. The PFLP is a secular leftist Palestinian faction fighting with Hamas. The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement fired rockets at an Israeli military position in southeast Gaza City. The Palestinian Mujahideen Movement is a Palestinian faction aligned with Hamas and has expressed close ties with Iran. The IDF Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) clashed with and killed Palestinian fighters targeting Israeli forces with anti-tank missiles in the central Gaza Strip. Israeli aircraft targeted a weapons warehouse and Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2024

February 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Zelensky also made several other service head appointments on February 11. Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol as Joint Forces Commander replacing Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev. Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Ihor Skybyuk Air Assault Forces Commander replacing Major General Maksym Myrhorodskyi. Zelensky appointed Major General Ihor Plahuta Territorial Defense Forces Commander replacing Major General Anatoliy Barhylevych, who was appointed Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff on February 10.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 10, 2024

February 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Delays in Western security assistance may lead to significant Ukrainian air defense missile shortages that could allow Russian forces to bomb Ukrainian forces or even front-line cities more aggressively. The Russian military has yet to conduct consistent large-scale aviation operations supporting Russian ground offensives in Ukraine, and the intensification of Russian aviation operations at scale would represent a significant threat to Ukraine.

Iran Update, February 10, 2024

February 10, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged in “intense” fighting with Palestinian fighters in the northern and central Gaza Strip on February 10. Hamas fighters fired anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) targeting Israeli forces southwest of the Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza City. Palestinian media reported on February 10 that Israeli artillery targeted areas in eastern Jabalia. The IDF Nahal Brigade (assigned to the 162nd Division) killed and detained an unspecified number of Palestinian fighters in the central Gaza Strip. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters mortared Israeli forces east of Maghazi in the central Gaza Strip.

Iran Update, February 9, 2024

February 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Palestinian fighters continued to infiltrate Gaza City on February 9, where they are attacking Israeli forces. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Mujahideen Brigades fighters conducted a combined attack that targeted a group of Israeli soldiers and vehicles near Eastern Cemetary, between eastern Jabalia and the Israel-Gaza Strip border

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2024

February 9, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian online community noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin did not offer any new information in his interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson and simply repeated longstanding Kremlin talking points about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for American audiences.

Iran Update, February 8, 2024

February 8, 2024 - ISW Press

Palestinian fighters are continuing to infiltrate previously cleared areas in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Unit 414 Intelligence Battalion (assigned to the 143rd Division) directed a drone strike on February 8 targeting a Palestinian militia squad that was attempting to “transfer technological systems” to Hamas in the northern Gaza Strip. Unit 414 previously encountered Palestinian fighters that were attempting to establish a Hamas reconnaissance position in Beit Hanoun on February 6. CTP-ISW assessed on January 22 that Hamas and other Palestinian militias are likely in the early stages of reconstituting their military capabilities in the northern Gaza Strip.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 8, 2024

February 8, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to use an interview with American media personality Tucker Carlson published on February 8 to present to a wider Western audience a long-standing Kremlin information operation that falsely asserts that Russia is interested in a negotiated end to its war in Ukraine. Putin illustrated throughout the interview that Russia has no interest in meaningful or legitimate negotiations, however, and that Putin still seeks to destroy Ukraine as a state. Putin also displayed his overarching hostility towards the West and falsely accused the West of forcing Russia to attack Ukraine. Putin repeatedly stressed that Russia is open to negotiations in order to falsely frame Russia as a reasonable actor and “Western ruling elites” as the main obstruction to a negotiation. Putin also repeatedly reiterated a Russian information operation alleging that Western officials coerced Ukraine to reject an agreement favorable to Russia during negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul in March 2022.

Fact Sheet: US Assistance to Ukraine

February 8, 2024 - ISW Press

US aid to Ukraine does not lack oversight nor has corruption in Ukraine diverted it.

America’s NATO and Asian allies and other European states have committed more money to support Ukraine than the United States.

Ukraine is not a “forever war” for the United States because Americans are not fighting this war.

Sending military aid to Ukraine increases America’s military readiness and reduces the risk that the United States will have to fight Russia itself.

The United States is not sending Ukraine a “blank check.”

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