Iran Update, December 20, 2024
December 20, 2024 - ISW Press
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 20, 2024
December 20, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian ballistic missile strikes damaged several embassies in central Kyiv on the morning of December 20.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, December 20, 2024
December 20, 2024 - ISW Press
Guam police apprehended seven People's Republic of China (PRC) nationals attempting to enter the island illegally on December 10 and 11 during a US missile interceptor test off the island. The PRC nationals arrived by the same boat from Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, which have a 90-day visa-exemption policy. The Guam Customs and Quarantine Agency stated in a press release that one of the three detainees arrested on December 10 had a standing warrant for her arrest and was found illegally entering the vicinity of a US military installation.
Iran Update, December 19, 2024
December 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Turkey and Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) are attempting to coerce the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to disarm and integrate into the HTS-led armed forces by threatening the SDF with a full-scale assault against SDF-held areas. Turkey massed forces on the Turkey-Syria border, dismantled the Kobani-Turkey border wall, and increased drone attacks in the Manbij countryside ahead of a potential Turkish invasion into Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Turkey will not need to intervene in Syria if HTS addresses its concerns with the SDF “properly.”
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 19, 2024
December 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he should have violated the ceasefire he had imposed on Ukraine in 2014 by launching a full-scale invasion even earlier when asked to reflect on his 2022 decision to attack. Putin responded to a media question during his annual Direct Line televised press conference on December 19 on whether he would change his decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he had it to do over again, stating that he should have made this decision earlier. Putin added that Russia should have systematically prepared ahead of the full-scale invasion and falsely claimed that Russia "spontaneously" invaded Ukraine in 2022 after Ukraine "directly" announced that it would not abide by the Minsk II Accords.
Africa File, December 19, 2024
December 19, 2024 - ISW Press
Russia is reinforcing its positions in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa as it continues to consolidate in and withdraw some of its forces from Syria.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 18, 2024
December 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a chemical plant in Rostov Oblast on December 18. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported that unspecified actors struck the Kamensky Chemical Plant and that the plant produces rocket fuel, explosives, and ammunition components and disposes of spent rocket systems.
Iran Update, December 18, 2024
December 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) is calling for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which aligns with Turkey's objective of destroying the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and constitutes an implicit call by HTS to disarm the SDF.
Africa File Special Edition: Ankara Declaration Reduces Ethiopia-Somalia Tensions but Leaves Unresolved Gaps
December 18, 2024 - ISW Press
Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on December 11 to work toward securing Ethiopian commercial access to the Red Sea as part of a Turkish-mediated deal that will likely benefit Ethiopia and Turkey and undermine the SFG’s legitimacy. Ethiopia will likely withdraw from or at least pause its controversial naval base agreement with the breakaway Somaliland region because of the new agreement with Somalia, which is known as the Ankara Declaration.
Iran Update, December 17, 2024
December 17, 2024 - ISW Press
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) agreed to extend their temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria “to the end of the week.”