Publications

Israel's Victory in Lebanon

December 2, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli operations in Lebanon have defeated Hezbollah and compelled the group to end its involvement in the October 7 War. On November 26, Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire deal that ended Hezbollah's attacks into Israel and required the group to disarm in southern Lebanon. These conditions achieve the stated Israeli war aim of safely returning displaced citizens to their homes in northern Israel. The ceasefire ensures the Israeli right to self-defense against any future threat that Hezbollah may pose as well.

Iran Update, December 1, 2024

December 1, 2024 - ISW Press

Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reinforcements fortified defensive lines north of Hama City and prevented Syrian opposition forces from advancing into Hama City.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1, 2024

December 1, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian MoD reportedly replaced Lieutenant General Sergei Kisel with Colonel General Alexander Chaiko who will reprise his previous assignment as commander of the Russian Force Grouping in Syria, though it remains unclear how Russian operations in Syria may change.

Iran Update, November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Syrian opposition forces seized Aleppo City and advanced toward Hama City. Pro-Syrian regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the opposition offensive. The Turkish-backed SNA launched a separate offensive into Syrian regime-held territory. The SNA captured a military airport from the joint control of the SAA and SDF. The opposition offensive in northeastern Syria may be inspiring anti-regime activity in other parts of the country, particularly restive Daraa and Suwayda provinces. The Syrian regime may struggle to rally the same support from the Axis of Resistance and Russia that they previously provided, which will impede pro-regime counteroffensives.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Kremlin officials responded to Syrian opposition forces' offensive into Syrian regime-held territory on November 29 and 30 and expressed interest in using the Astana Process to respond to the situation. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un during his unannounced trip to Pyongyang on November 30.

Ukraine Updates, October 1 to November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 30, 2024

Click here to read the full report.

Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Davit Gasparyan, Angelica Evans, Nate Trotter, and George Barros

November 30, 2024, 3:45 pm ET

Iran Update, November 29, 2024

November 29, 2024 - ISW Press

Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands of fighters and armored elements advanced quickly eastward, seizing several villages within a few hours of launching the offensive. Fateh Mubin—an opposition group based in HTS-controlled Idlib Province—announced on November 28 that they had seized control of another 13 villages and achieved the “complete liberation” of the countryside to the west of Aleppo City.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2024

November 29, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence. Putin addressed members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization's (CSTO) Security Council in Astana, Kazakhstan, on November 28 and reiterated several claims about the Oreshnik ballistic missile, with which Russian forces struck Dnipro City on November 21.

Iran Update, November 27, 2024

November 27, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has held as it went into effect on November 26.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2024

November 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear.

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