Iran Update, August 11, 2024
August 11, 2024 - ISW Press
Iran has not retaliated quickly against Israel because Iran very likely seeks to ensure that its next attack restores deterrence with Israel while simultaneously avoiding a large-scale war.
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Publications
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2024
August 10, 2024 - ISW Press
The Russian National Antiterrorism Committee announced a counterterrorism operation in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts on August 9 in response to the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. The Federal Security Service (FSB) Head and National Antiterrorism Committee Chairperson Alexander Bortnikov announced counterterrorism operations in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts in response to "sabotage and reconnaissance units" conducting "terrorist acts" in Russia and "units of the Ukrainian armed forces" conducting a "terrorist attack" in Kursk Oblast.
Iran Update, August 10, 2024
August 10, 2024 - ISW Press
Different elements of the Iranian regime have advocated for varying responses to Israel’s killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. The different messages across the regime are very likely emblematic of differences in opinion between different camps in the regime. The messages may also reflect changes in position within these camps. Senior Iranian military and security officials, as well as Iranian armed forces- and IRGC-affiliated media, have suggested that Iran and its Axis of Resistance seek to conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel.
Iran Update, August 9, 2024
August 9, 2024 - ISW Press
CTP-ISW continues to assess that Iran and its Axis of Resistance will likely conduct a coordinated strike targeting Israel in retaliation for the death of former Hamas Political Bureau head Ismail Haniyeh on July 31.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 9, 2024
August 9, 2024 - ISW Press
Russian sources claimed on August 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced further east in Kursk Oblast but are likely no longer operating as far north or as far west as Russian sources previously claimed on August 8.
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, August 9, 2024
August 9, 2024 - ISW Press
The PRC Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) and Ministry of Public Security (MPS) listed the names of ten Taiwanese political figures in new website sections devoted to punishing “Taiwan independence diehards.” The postings are part of a pressure campaign targeted at Taiwan’s new administration of Lai Ching-te and the ruling DPP.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2024
August 8, 2024 - ISW Press
Ukrainian cross-border mechanized offensive operations into Kursk Oblast that began on August 6 are continuing as part of a Ukrainian operational effort within Russian territory. ISW will not offer assessments about the intent of this Ukrainian operation in order to avoid compromising Ukrainian operational security.
Iran Update, August 8, 2024
August 8, 2024 - ISW Press
CTP-ISW continues to assess that a coordinated large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel by Iran and its Axis of Resistance is the most likely Iranian response to Israel’s killing of senior axis leaders.
Africa File, August 8, 2024: Mali-Ukraine Dispute; Turkey Prepares to Ship Out to Somalia
August 8, 2024 - ISW Press
Mali and Niger cut diplomatic ties with Ukraine and other West African countries have criticized Ukraine after some Ukrainian officials claimed to support Tuareg separatist rebels in northern Mali. The moves from the pro-Russian Sahelian juntas are unsurprising, but countries not aligned with Russia have also criticized Ukraine. This criticism comes as Ukraine is trying to strengthen cooperation with West Africa to counter Russia’s growing influence in the region.
Iran Update, August 7, 2024
August 7, 2024 - ISW Press
Acting Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani defended Iran’s impending retaliatory strike against Israel while signaling that Iran seeks to avoid a regional war during an Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 7. Bagheri Kani argued that Iran “has no choice” but to exercise its right to self-defense and restore deterrence against Israel.