Iran Update, February 7, 2025
February 7, 2025 - ISW Press
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei categorically rejected nuclear negotiations with the United States during a speech to Iranian military personnel in Tehran on February 7.
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Publications
China-Taiwan Weekly Update, February 7, 2025
February 7, 2025 - ISW Press
Taiwanese civil society groups are leading a large-scale recall campaign targeting legislators from the Kuomintang (KMT) opposition party. These recalls could erode the current KMT-led majority in the Legislative Yuan
Iran Update, February 6, 2025
February 6, 2025 - ISW Press
Many of the most prominent Iraqi Sunni political parties have emphasized the need for political action to achieve long-standing Sunni political demands ahead of the Iraqi parliamentary elections in October 2025.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2025
February 6, 2025 - ISW Press
Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.
Africa File, February 6, 2025: M23 Unilateral Ceasefire; SAF Closes in on Khartoum; US Airstrikes in Northern Somalia; al Shabaab Reinfiltrates Central Somalia; IS Sahel Kidnapping Campaign; US-Algeria Relationship Grows
February 6, 2025 - ISW Press
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) is poised to secure a major victory by recapturing Khartoum and pushing the RSF west of the Nile. Securing these objectives would support the SAF’s grand strategic aim of establishing itself as the only legitimate power in Sudan. SAF control over Khartoum would allow the SAF to consolidate control over the eastern bank of the Nile River and prepare for future offensives that aim to defeat the RSF in its strongholds in western Sudan.
Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion: Six Month Assessment
February 6, 2025 - ISW Press
A small group of Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast have complicated the Russian military's efforts to advance in Ukraine over the last six months. Roughly a division's worth of Ukrainian troops have undermined the Russian military's ability to launch or renew offensive operations in lower-priority areas of the frontline and to reinforce priority efforts with elite airborne (VDV) and naval infantry units. The Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast is a partial proof of concept of how limited Ukrainian battlefield activity that leverages vulnerabilities in Russia's warfighting capabilities and that integrates technological adaptations with mechanized maneuver can have theater-wide impacts on operations.
Iran Update, February 5, 2025
February 5, 2025 - ISW Press
Iran is downplaying the significance of US “maximum pressure” sanctions while signaling some openness to nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the maximum pressure policy is a “failed experiment” in response to US President Donald Trump’s announcing on February 4 his intent to re-enforce extensive sanctions on Iran.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 5, 2025
February 5, 2025 - ISW Press
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his willingness to negotiate with Russia from a principled position that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the long run. Zelensky reiterated during an interview published on February 4 that Ukraine cannot and will not compromise its sovereignty in future peace negotiations, but that Ukraine's partners are not currently providing Ukraine with sufficient military assistance for Ukrainian forces to push Russian forces from all occupied Ukrainian territory.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 4, 2025
February 4, 2025 - ISW Press
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi visited the Kyivska Electrical Substation in Kyiv Oblast on February 4 to assess damage to the substation as Russian long-range strikes targeting energy infrastructure continue to threaten Ukraine's nuclear power plants (NPPs) and Ukraine's energy production capabilities. Grossi did not specify when Russian forces damaged the Kyviska Electrical Substation but emphasized that a direct strike on the substation or a power supply disruption could cause a nuclear accident.
Iran Update, February 4, 2025
February 4, 2025 - ISW Press
Iran is conducting nuclear research that would enable it to build a nuclear weapon in a period of months. The New York Times reported on February 3 that a "secret team" of Iranian weapons engineers and scientists is "exploring" a faster approach to build a nuclear weapon in a "matter of months.” The engineers and scientists could be from the Organization of Defense Innovation and Research (SPND), which, under a different name, played a leading role in the Iranian nuclear weapons research program before 2003. The new approach would decrease the time Iran needs to turn weapons-grade uranium (uranium enriched to 90 percent) into a nuclear weapon. This approach would significantly reduce the time that the International Atomic Energy Agency would have to detect Iranian weaponization activity. It would also reduce the time that the United States or Israel would have to take military action against Iranian nuclear facilities.