Russian-backed Offensive in Ukraine Looms as Minsk II Ceasefire Breaks
Apr 28, 2015 - Hugo SpauldingRussian-backed separatist forces are on the brink of a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine Project
Russian-backed separatist forces are on the brink of a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Russian-backed separatists appear to have abandoned the February 12 ceasefire agreement after redeploying banned heavy weapons to the front line and intensifying their attacks on Ukrainian positions.
Russian-backed separatists intensified attacks this week possibly in preparation of launching offensive maneuvers and rupturing the framework of the ceasefire agreement.
Ukraine took steps to integrate the remaining independent Ukrainian paramilitary units in accordance with the February 12 Mins
Pro-Russian forces may be positioning themselves to launch surprise offensive maneuvers. An indication from international monitors that Ukrainian forces no longer occupy the southern village of Shyrokyne suggests that the Russian-backed separatists have made gains in the Mariupol area despite the ceasefire.
Against the backdrop of continued fighting outside Mariupol and Donetsk, Ukrainian oligarch and volunteer battalion financier Ihor Kolomoyskyi stole the headlines this week.
Amidst ongoing low-level fighting between Ukrainian and separatist forces, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a law on March 18 which would grant limited autonomy to many areas under separatist control.
While Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that both the separatists and Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation (ATO) forces had withdrawn a large amount of heavy weaponry in accordance with the February 12 ceasefire agreement, shelling and clashes persisted in several key areas across the frontline.
Indirect fire exchanges have persisted across the front line as reports show Ukraine continuing to withdraw heavy weapons and unverified separatist claims assert their own complete withdrawal.
In the week following the Ukrainian surrender of Debaltseve, a strategic rail junction between the separatist strongholds of Donetsk and Luhansk, the conflict has exhibited a pattern of hostilities reminiscent of the frequently violated ceasefire period from September 2014 to January 2015.