Ukraine

With Volodymyr Zelensky's rise to power in Ukraine, the Kremlin likely sees an opportunity to gradually regain Russian economic and political influence in Ukraine. Other key constituencies with agendas that will disrupt Ukraine's reform path also perceive opportunities in this critical moment.

The Kremlin is tightening its domestic control over the information space inside Russia while refining the campaign targeting neighboring Ukraine ahead of the Ukrainian Presidential Election on March 31, 2019.

U.S. and NATO partner Ukraine is entering a critical election cycle as it attempts to defend against Russian aggression. Read an assessment of the candidates in Ukraine's March 31, 2019 presidential election and their alignment with Russian objectives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's political-military campaign in Ukraine undermines Ukraine's sovereignty and threatens Europe more than three years after Russia's invasion. Russian leaders will continue to extend and exploit the war to destabilize Ukraine and prevent its further integration with the West until the costs of their campaign change their calculus.

Russia heightened its military posture in Europe by projecting its land, air and naval capabilities. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on May 4 that it would create three new combined-arms divisions in the Western and Southern military districts, with a second announcement on June 3 specifying that these would include moving two motorized infantry brigades to its Western borders with Belarus and Ukraine.