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Russia continued to shape conditions on the ground in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East following the air safety memorandum of understanding signed with the U.S. on October 20, 2015.

The U.S. escalated its role in the anti-ISIS fight by having U.S. special operators participate in a Peshmerga-led raid under “advise and assist” powers near Hawija in southwestern Kirkuk.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) discontinued the release of official reporting on airstrikes in Syria from October 23 – 24 amidst reports of high civilian casualties. However, credible local sources continued to report instances of Russian airstrikes throughout Aleppo, Latakia, Idlib, Hama, Homs, and Damascus Provinces.

Russian airstrikes continue primarily to target rebel-held terrain in support of Syrian regime ground offensives in northwestern Syria. Russian airstrikes from October 19-20 largely supported regime ground offensives in rebel-held areas of the southern countryside of Aleppo and northern Hama Province far from core ISIS-held terrain.

Russia’s recent intervention in Syria will generate more opportunities for the Islamic State than it quells. If the Islamic State’s core defenses around major cities in Iraq and Syria hold, the Islamic State will weather Russia’s intervention and likely emerge stronger. New via West Point Combating Terrorism Center: The Sentinel

Russia reached an understanding with the U.S. on air safety guidelines in Syria on October 20,  but Russia's aggressive maneuvers against U.S. aircraft and violations of Turkish airspace are likely to continue in order to keep U.S. air power in the Middle East in check.

Key Takeaway: Russian airstrikes continue to bolster the Assad regime’s efforts to defeat the Syrian opposition. Russian airstrikes from October 19-20 primarily supported ongoing regime ground offensives in rebel-held areas in the southern countryside of Aleppo, the al-Ghab plain of northwestern Hama Province, and the Jebel al-Akrad mountain range in northeastern Latakia Province.

The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Iranian proxy militias have made rapid progress in Baiji.

The Russian air campaign in Syria continues to bolster the Syrian regime’s fight against the opposition. Russian warplanes provided air support to regime ground offensives against rebels in Aleppo, Latakia, northern Hama, and Damascus Provinces from October 17-18.