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Russian airstrikes continue to primarily target Syrian opposition groups in areas far from ISIS's core terrain. These strikes are concentrated in northwestern Syria, particularly in rebel-held areas of Idlib Province and the northern countryside of Hama Province. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed only three airstrikes targeting positions in known ISIS-held terrain between October 1 and October 3. However, local reporting only confirmed two of these strikes.

Russia mobilized and transported forces and equipment to Syria under the guise of military exercises. ­The link between Russia’s arrival at the naval base at Tartus and its military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean are clear, and the proximity in time of Russia’s deployment into Syria and its Center 2015 exercise indicates that these military exercises served as preludes or covers for deployments.

Russian involvement in Iraq has prompted U.S. concerns that Iraqi officials may be sharing classified information with Russia and Iran amid a significant increase in Russian activity in Syria.

The positioning of Russian aircraft in Syria gives the Kremlin an ability to shape and control U.S. and Western operations in both Syria and Iraq out of all proportion to the size of the Russian force. It can compel the U.S. to accept a de facto combined coalition with Russia, Syria, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah, possibly in support of indiscriminate operations against any and all regime opponents, not just ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.

An anonymous senior U.S. official stated that “low-level Russian generals” had established a “coordination cell” in Baghdad with Syrian and Iranian military commanders to coordinate the activities of Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi’a militias in Iraq.

Russia and the separatists continued their operational pause in eastern Ukraine as Russia turned its attention toward its creation of a forward operating base in Syria ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s speech at the UN General Assembly on September 28.

ISF operations to recapture Ramadi remain stalled, but remain the ISF’s main effort.

Challenges are mounting against PM Abadi’s government and the ISF in Baghdad. Following the kidnapping of the 18 Turkish workers last week, likely by Iranian-backed Shi'a militias, this week witnessed the kidnapping of a former Sunni advisor from Anbar.