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The trajectory of the Syrian Civil War may fundamentally shift within the 90 day timeframe. Russia escalated its military assistance on behalf of the Syrian regime in early September 2015, deploying armored vehicles and hundreds of personnel to the Syrian Coast in preparation for the establishment of at least one forward air operations base.
ISW President Dr. Kimberly Kagan testified to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday September 16, 2015. The committee discussed the United States role in the Middle East focusing on Iraq, Syria, and the fight against ISIS.
Satellite imagery provided by AllSourceAnalysis confirms the recent arrival of Russian main battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, helicopters, and other military equipment at an airbase in Syria’s coastal Latakia province, indicating that Russia has deployed troops inside Syria. Concurrent military exercises inside Russia suggest that Russia may intend to deploy additional forces, possibly further inside Syria.
ISIS Grand Strategic Objectives include: rule all Muslims under an Islamic Caliphate; and provoke and win an apocalyptic war with the West.
ISW’s updated ISIS sanctuary map includes a new attack zone in Deraa, southwestern Syria and an expanded sanctuary zone in Idlib, northwestern Syria. ISIS claimed an attack against the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) in Deraa on August 18, and also may be responsible for an ongoing assassination campaign against JN in Idlib.
Popular demonstrations continued across southern Iraq while Iranian proxy groups escalated against the Iraqi government by denouncing protests and releasing an anonymous video of the Turkish hostages kidnapped in Baghdad, demanding adjustments to Turkey’s policies in the region.
ISW has modified its Control of Terrain in Syria map to order to highlight the terrain which is assessed to be under the predominant control of Lebanese Hezbollah rather than the Syrian regime. Hezbollah seized the town of Qusayr southwest of Homs City in an offensive over April to June 2013 which marked its first overt intervention into the Syrian Civil War.
Is Bashar al-Assad losing the Syrian Civil War? Given recent reports of direct Russian military support for the Syrian regime as well as continued increases in the assistance provided by Iran and its proxies, this map details the known or assessed locations where Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies have established headquarters or staging areas in support of the Syrian regime.
This map represents the military situation at the Syrian-Turkish border as of Sept. 11, 2015. Particular attention is paid to border crossings, many of which are now closed or highly restricted and under the control of a variety of groups including the Syrian regime, ISIS, Kurds, the Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, and Syrian rebels.
PM Haidar al-Abadi continues to take actions to ensure that the government implements his reform agenda.