Iran Project

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s intentions to increase ties with Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23.

A senior Israeli intelligence official told Iranian anti-regime media that Israel’s recent operations in Lebanon have disrupted Iran’s ability to provide funds to Hezbollah. The source stated that Israeli operations targeting key Hezbollah leadership and the Israeli air campaign have significantly disrupted Hezbollah funding. The official stated that Iran used Syria as a conduit to provide Hezbollah with $50 million in cash each month prior to the start of the Israeli operations in Lebanon.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Office recently gave US officials a document detailing Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire and diplomatic solution to end the war with Hezbollah.

Palestinian fighters killed an IDF brigade commander in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters recently detonated a pre-planted improvised explosive device (IED), killing IDF 401st Armored Brigade Commander Colonel Ehsan Daqsa.

Hezbollah likely conducted a drone attack targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Israel, on October 19. Three drones crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon on October 19. The IDF said that one of the drones "hit a building“ in Caesarea with no casualties. Israeli residents reported hearing a large explosion following the drone’s impact. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were at the residence at the time of the impact, according to the Prime Minister’s Office. Leaked images of the residence show damage to the side of a building. Netanyahu warned in a statement that the Iranian-backed groups that tried to ”assassinate” him made a ”grave mistake.”

The IDF Chief of Staff estimated that Israeli forces have killed at least 1,500 Hezbollah fighters since beginning operations against the group, which is consistent with CTP-ISW estimates.

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.

Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Yahya Sinwar in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip on October 16. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist negotiating position meaningfully.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued to seize terrain in several Lebanon towns along the Israel-Lebanon border. Israeli forces have previously seized or partially secured terrain in Maroun al Ras, Yaroun, and Blida in southeastern Lebanon.

Hezbollah Deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem gave a speech detailing Hezbollah’s strategy and vision of the war on October 15. This was Qassem's third speech since Israel struck and killed Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah on September 27. Qassem has taken on Nasrallah’s role as the public face of the organization. Qassem may be among the candidates considered to replace Nasrallah given that he has formal seniority in the organization and has appeared as the public face of the group in these difficult circumstances.