 |
 |
Recent tit-for-tat sectarian killings and local support for pro-Assad insurgent cells will likely hamper Syrian interim government efforts to promote security and community reconciliation in coastal Syria.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted a series of airstrikes targeting Houthi leaders and infrastructure in Yemen since March 15. The strikes are in response to the Houthi attack campaign on international shipping, which the Houthis launched in October 2023 in support of Hamas. The Houthis have conducted 174 attacks targeting US military vessels and 145 attacks targeting commercial vessels since October 2023. CENTCOM reportedly conducted around 50 strikes across 9 Yemeni provinces, according to Yemeni journalists.
Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 effectively condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.
The Houthis have sought to obtain hydrogen fuel cells from unspecified Chinese suppliers to increase the range and payloads of their drones, according to a November 2024 Conflict Armament Research (CAR) investigation.
The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing. A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters around Baghdad.
The Syrian interim government has taken initial steps to prosecute individuals who committed crimes during recent insurgent activity in western Syria between March 6 and 10. Interim government forces arrested five individuals on March 11 for committing extrajudicial killings. Syrian Interim President Ahmed al Shara acknowledged accusations that interim government-affiliated forces committed extrajudicial killings and promised that the interim government would hold those who “exceeded the powers of the state” accountable during a speech on March 9.
Current Syrian interim government counterinsurgency operations are insufficient to defeat pro-Assad insurgent cells across Syria.
The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. The most organized insurgents are Alawites in the coastal areas. These Alawites are likely supported by Hezbollah smuggling networks, given these networks’ overlapping activities around the Lebanon-Syria border.
Insurgent cells continued to attack Syrian interim government personnel across Latakia and Tartous provinces as Syrian forces deployed to re-impose security over the coastal region.
An Assadist insurgency has emerged in western Syria and stands to help US adversaries expand their influence there.