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The African Union (AU) and UN are advancing plans for an AU-led peacekeeping mission in Somalia after the current AU mission expires, at the end of 2024.
Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a Malian-Russian offensive in northern Mali in the deadliest engagement for Russian forces since they arrived in Mali in 2021.
Tuareg insurgents with likely ties to the Tuareg separatist rebel coalition and al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate repelled a Malian-Russian offensive in northern Mali in the deadliest engagement for Russian forces since they arrived in Mali in 2021.
Turkey is strengthening its long-standing partnership with Niger across various sectors, which could result in Turkey competing with China and Russia over access to resources and military influence. Turkey also has opportunities to increase economic and military cooperation with Burkina Faso and Mali, but Russia’s larger presence in both countries will pose a greater obstacle.
Niger’s junta has significantly altered its international and regional partnerships away from the West in its first year of power. The Nigerien presidential guards launched a coup against democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26, 2023. Niger’s other security forces fell in line over the next 24 hours despite the largely isolated initial motivations of the junta leader Abdirahmane Tiani.
The central Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established a confederation that deepens their break with West Africa’s ECOWAS and aims to strengthen their domestic and regional credibility. This split from the main West Africa political and economic bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), would undermine ECOWAS’s legitimacy by hampering regional economic and security integration and democratic development.
Boko Haram almost certainly conducted its first suicide attack since 2020, highlighting its ongoing resurgence in northeastern Nigeria. Boko Haram has also strengthened its territorial control, finances, and manpower over the past year. The attack may aim to inspire surrendered or defected Boko Haram fighters to remobilize.
Niger revoked the operating permit of a French state-owned mining company for a uranium mine in northern Niger. Russia seeks to take over the mine. The Kremlin has a continent-wide strategy to dominate the nuclear energy market to boost the Russian economy and increase leverage over countries that aim to cut Russian energy purchases. The Nigerien junta is likely seeking to gain military support or near-term access to revenue to bolster its counterinsurgency efforts and economy, strengthening its regime security.
The reported presence of multiple high-level leaders in Somalia and across Africa reflects Africa’s increasingly focal role in the IS global network.
Gulf of Aden. US intelligence claimed that the Houthis and al Shabaab have discussed a deal for the Houthis to provide weapons to al Shabaab. The two groups have indirect connections through regional illicit arms networks that would likely facilitate indirect talks. Direct talks would indicate that the groups are interested in exchanging higher-grade systems not typically exchanged in the Gulf of Aden smuggling network, such as surface-to-air missiles and attack drones.