Terrorist Networks Project

M23 has increased the tempo and scale of an indiscriminate counterinsurgency campaign against anti-M23 militia groups—including legitimate military targets, such as Hutu extremist militants—in the eastern DRC with Rwandan backing. M23’s campaign likely violates M23’s and Rwanda’s commitments under the US-backed peace framework, however, and has allegedly involved a high degree of systematic violence against civilians, which may violate international humanitarian law.

Rwandan-backed M23 rebels launched an offensive in the eastern DRC that violates a Qatari-brokered ceasefire and undermines the US-backed peace framework. The offensive likely aims to gain more leverage after DRC-M23 peace talks stalled.

The DRC, Rwanda, and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will likely remain involved in the Qatari-led peace talks and the broader US-backed peace framework—despite various challenges—to reap the dividends of US engagement. Both sides have been unwilling to make concessions on M23’s territorial control, however, which will likely prolong talks and make a sustainable long-term agreement unlikely.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels signed a preliminary peace agreement with a formal ceasefire provision for the first time in the latest step of a US- and Qatari-led regional peace framework.

The Kremlin will likely take advantage of recent US cuts to media funding in Africa as Russia continues to expand its media presence on the continent. Russia’s media ecosystem in Africa supports Russia’s strategic effort to supplant the United States and its allies in Africa through anti-Western and pro-Kremlin information operations to strengthen Russian soft power.

The United States will discuss critical minerals, defense partnerships, economic cooperation, and migration during a three-day summit with leaders from five coastal West African countries.

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen launched a series of simultaneous attacks across Mali. The operation was a tactical defeat but could have strategic benefits for the group by contradicting the Malian junta’s narrative that the security situation is improving, especially in economically and politically sensitive areas, such as western Mali.

The growing divide between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government threatens to kill the Pretoria peace agreement and return violence to Tigray. The schism has likely prompted the TPLF to recalibrate its ties with Eritrea, which has exacerbated tensions between the TPLF and Ethiopia and Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multiyear hiatus. Kabila remained outside of the DRC for more than a year and kept a low profile until he began remobilizing his political networks to “organize his return to the forefront” in late 2024.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured a key border area between Egypt, Libya, and Sudan on June 10 that the RSF will likely use to strengthen its supply lines.