Iran Update, September 21, 2024
September 21, 2024 - ISW PressIsrael has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah.
Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah.
Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Lebanese Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage upon the group.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms worth up to 45 billion euros (roughly $50 billion) and 35 billion euros (roughly $39 billion) respectively during a visit to Kyiv on September 20.
The CCP framed the corruption case against Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founder Ko Wen-je as part of a “Green Terror” campaign by Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) to persecute “dissidents.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly declined a request from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to offset Russian losses by declaring another mobilization wave in spring 2024 likely to avoid political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential
Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel.
Jama’at Nusrat al Islam (JNIM) attacked the main military air base and a gendarmerie base in Bamako, its first attacks in the capital since 2015. JNIM likely conducted the attacks to undermine the legitimacy of the Malian junta and reduce both elite and popular support for the junta.
Translating the defeat of Hamas’ brigades into the destruction of the organization will require additional Israeli or international measures to prevent Hamas from recovering. Hamas’ military and political destruction requires the articulation of a political end state and the application of the necessary means to achieve that end state. Israel officially seeks to destroy Hamas as both a political and military organization, not merely to defeat its military wing.
Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver Oblast on September 18. Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate wider operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.